AFL Betting Tips Round 11

Last Updated on 26 July 2023

AFL Footy Tips Round 11

 

Sydney vs Carlton

Friday, May 26, 2023

7:50 PM @ SCG

The upcoming clash between the Sydney Swans and the Carlton Blues promises to be a riveting encounter.

Carlton boasts superior stats in disposals, kicks, handballs, contested possessions, and disposal efficiency, which indicates a strong ball control and suggests they may dictate the pace of the game.

However, Sydney’s advantage in centre and total clearances demonstrates their ability to turn defence into attack efficiently. Moreover, Sydney’s higher goal accuracy provides them an edge in capitalising on scoring opportunities.

Despite Carlton’s dominance in several areas, the key to winning an AFL game often lies in efficient use of possession, which is indicated by Sydney’s higher clearance numbers and goal accuracy.

Considering recent form, both teams have won just once in their last five outings, which makes this a crucial game in terms of regaining momentum.

Based on the above analysis, I predict a narrow victory for the Sydney Swans. Given their goal accuracy and the usual scoring patterns in AFL, I anticipate a final score in the vicinity of Sydney 89 – Carlton 77.

This game will likely be a tightly contested match with the result in the balance until the final whistle.

Betting Tip: Swans

Suggested Bet: Sydney WINNING MARGIN 1-39

 

St Kilda vs Hawthorn

Saturday, May 27, 2023

1:45 PM @ Marvel Stadium

Given the compelling stats and recent form, St Kilda is poised for victory against Hawthorn. Their disposals, kicks, and inside 50s surpass Hawthorn, supporting a robust offensive strategy.

Currently ranked fifth in the AFL standings, the Saints also hold a superior goal accuracy at 48.0%, compared to Hawthorn’s 42.5%​​.

Data-driven simulations lend further weight to this prediction, with St Kilda boasting a 77% chance of victory. Betting odds corroborate this outlook, positioning the Saints as favourites​​.

However, it’s worth noting that Hawthorn has a 61% probability of covering a 27.5-point line, indicating a potential for a closer contest than the odds suggest​​.

All things considered, my prediction for the final score is St Kilda 85, Hawthorn 61.

Based on comprehensive analytics, this forecast paints a vibrant picture of an upcoming game where the Saints march to triumph, yet Hawthorn puts up a commendable fight​​. Enjoy the game!

Betting Tip: Saints

Suggested Bet: Saints WINNING MARGIN 1-39

 

Melbourne vs Fremantle

Saturday, May 27, 2023

2:10 PM @ MCG

Last week Melbourne narrowly lost to Geelong. However, despite their defeat, Melbourne exhibited a strong performance. They had a higher number of kicks, handballs, and overall disposals compared to Geelong, suggesting a robust offensive strategy​​.

Although Melbourne had fewer marks and hitouts, they managed to secure more frees, indicating their ability to exert pressure on the opposition and earn advantageous positions​​. Their scoring opportunities were also higher, with more goals and behinds kicked, which highlights their capacity to create chances, albeit their conversion rate was lower​​.

When Melbourne faces Fremantle this week, their offensive prowess and ability to earn frees could turn the tide in their favour. However, they need to work on improving their conversion rate to maximise their scoring opportunities. Based on their recent performances, a realistic final score prediction might be Melbourne 94, Fremantle 70.

This prediction assumes Melbourne’s continued offensive strength while slightly improving their conversion rate.

It’s going to be a thrilling game with both teams giving their all.

Betting Tip: Demons

Suggested Bet: Demons WINNING MARGIN 1-39

 

Geelong vs GWS Giants

Saturday, May 27, 2023

4:35 PM @ GMHBA Stadium

Let’s set the stage for the upcoming AFL clash between the mighty Geelong Cats and the GWS Giants. Focusing on the stats, Geelong has a clear edge in key areas​​.

With greater inside 50s, more goal assists, and a superior goal accuracy, it’s clear that Geelong has been on the front foot this season. They’ve been efficient in disposals, shown resilience in tackles, and excelled in clearances.

The Cats have outshone the Giants in contested marks and hitouts, providing them with a solid platform for attacking play. Moreover, Geelong’s superior disposal efficiency signifies their ability to control and dictate the game.

A thrilling encounter is on the cards, but based on the numbers and the form, I’m backing the Cats to come out on top in this contest.

Final score prediction – Geelong 113, GWS Giants 68. It’s going to be a solid showcase of Geelong’s dominance so gear up for a thrashing.

Betting Tip: Cats

Suggested Bet: Cats WINNING MARGIN 40+

 

Gold Coast vs Bulldogs

Saturday, May 27, 2023

7:25 PM @ TIO Stadium

Drawing on the latest data, the Western Bulldogs look set to triumph over the Gold Coast Suns in the coming AFL match​​.

Bulldogs’ record reflects their strong form, with five consecutive wins. Though not without merit, the Suns carry a more mixed recent track record. Key stats also lean in Bulldogs’ favour, boasting higher overall disposals, handballs, and tackles than the Suns. In addition, the Bulldogs’ forward Aaron Naughton, with his 20 goals, will be a force to be reckoned with on the field​​.

Though the Bulldogs face the loss of Jason Johannisen due to a hamstring injury, their depth in the squad could well compensate for this setback. The team’s resilience and adaptability will be tested but, given their current momentum, it’s a challenge they’re ready to meet​​.

The final score could be close given the competitive nature of both teams. However, a plausible scoreline might be 83-74 in favour of the Bulldogs, reflecting their stronger form while acknowledging the Suns’ potential to put up a good fight.

This thrilling match is bound to keep fans on the edge of their seats, as the Bulldogs strive to continue their winning streak and the Suns aim to shine brightly against the odds.

Betting Tip: Bulldogs

Suggested Bet: Bulldogs WINNING MARGIN 1-39

 

West Coast vs Essendon

Saturday, May 27, 2023

7:30 PM @ Optus Stadium

Despite West Coast Eagles’ strong performance last season, they’re struggling this year, sitting at the bottom of the ladder​​. Conversely, Essendon is showing strength, particularly in their disposal efficiency and clearances, showcasing a more strategic game​​.

Given the stats, Essendon seems poised for victory in this week’s match against West Coast.

Predicted score? Essendon 1010, West Coast 74. All signs point to a thrilling game, with Essendon leading the charge.

Betting Tip: Essendon

Suggested Bet: Bombers WINNING MARGIN 1-39

 

Richmond vs Port Adelaide

Sunday, May 28, 2023

1:10 PM @ MCG

Given the recent statistics, there’s a strong case for Richmond to triumph over Port Adelaide in this week’s AFL match.

Although Port Adelaide has a commendable player in Jeremy Finlayson, Richmond’s ace, T. Taranto, has outshone him in disposals and contested possessions.

Furthermore, Richmond maintains an edge in overall disposals, kicks, and handballs. It’s true that Port Adelaide has been on a winning streak, but Richmond’s performance isn’t to be underestimated.

We predict a closely contested match, with a score favouring Richmond, 82-81.

Betting Tip: Tigers

Suggested Bet: Tigers HEAD-to-HEAD

 

Collingwood vs North Melbourne

Sunday, May 28, 2023

3:20 PM @ Marvel Stadium

Based on the stats gathered, Collingwood’s recent form is indisputable, leading the AFL with a series of wins​. Their superiority in disposals, contested marks, and goal assists, emphasises their strong offensive play​​.

On the contrary, North Melbourne has had a difficult season, with a string of losses, and languishing at the seventeenth position in the AFL​​.

Although they demonstrated resilience in their close game against Sydney, they’re set to face a robust Collingwood side that has only been outplayed once this season​​.

Therefore, in light of these statistics and recent performances, predicting a Collingwood victory is more than reasonable.

A realistic final score might be around 107-61, favouring Collingwood.

Betting Tip: Magpies

Suggested Bet: Magpies WINNING MARGIN 40+

 

Adelaide vs Brisbane

Sunday, May 28, 2023

4:40 PM @ Adelaide Oval

The Adelaide Crows and the Brisbane Lions are set to clash in this week’s AFL match, with each team bringing unique strengths to the field.

Despite recent losses, Adelaide’s top scorer, T. Walker, leads with 23 goals while R. Laird is a dominant force with 283 disposals. Conversely, Brisbane showcases J. Daniher, boasting 28 goals, and L. Neale with 281 disposals.

In the last five games, Brisbane has a clean winning streak, while Adelaide’s record is mixed with 2 wins and 3 losses. Yet, Adelaide’s resilience, coupled with a home-ground advantage, may swing the pendulum in their favour.

This game is going to be so close its hard to pick a team that is better off than the other, due to the closeness of these two teams it wouldn’t surprise me if it ended in a draw!

Betting Tip: Crows

Suggested Bet: DRAW

 

This week’s AFL Multi

• Swans
• Demons
• Bulldogs
• Tigers
• Crows

Take Bet: $18.20 with  Ladbrokes

Check out this all of week’s AFL multi tips on our Multi Bets Page.

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