AFL Betting Tips Round 21

Ben H / 1 August 2023

AFL Expert Tips Round 21

21Western Bulldogs Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
21Essendon Western Bulldogs Icon Western Bulldogs 89 59.57%
21Adelaide Richmond Tigers Icon Richmond 79 39.09%
21Geelong Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
21GW Sydney Essendon Bombers Icon Essendon 115 91.97%
21Kangaroos West Coast Eagles Icon West Coast 63 7.65%
21St Kilda
21Fremantle Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
Adelaide Crows Icon Adelaide 100 73.94%
Gold Coast Suns Icon Gold Coast 76 25.22%
Column to hide
after pasting Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
game keys above Hawthorn Hawks Icon Hawthorn 66 18.23%
Collingwood Magpies Icon Collingwood 98 80.92%
Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
Geelong Cats Icon Geelong 95 72.88%
Port Adelaide Power Icon Port Adelaide 74 26.16%
Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
GWS Giants Icon GW Sydney 82 44.89%
Sydney Swans Icon Sydney 86 54.07%
Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
North Melbourne Icon Kangaroos 59 9.12%
Melbourne Demons Icon Melbourne 106 90.37%
Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
St. Kilda Saints Icon St Kilda 66 27.60%
Carlton Blues Icon Carlton 86 71.36%
Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
Fremantle Dockers Icon Fremantle 74 38.39%
Brisbane Lions Icon Brisbane Lions 85 60.45%


Western Bulldogs vs Richmond Tigers

Friday, August 4, 2023

7:50 PM @ Marvel Stadium

The Bulldogs are poised to secure a victory in the upcoming AFL clash between the Western Bulldogs and Richmond Tigers. Despite recent setbacks, including the unfortunate injury to Josh Bruce, the Bulldogs have shown resilience and adaptability. The team’s ability to adjust their strategy mid-game, as seen when Rory Lobb was moved to the backline, is a testament to their flexibility and tactical prowess.

Richmond, on the other hand, has had a mixed performance recently. Their defeat against Melbourne at the MCG raises questions about their ability to handle pressure. Moreover, their track record at Marvel Stadium is less than stellar, failing to cover the line in their last seven matches at this venue.

The Bulldogs have a history of success against Richmond, as evidenced by their thrilling 89-84 victory in Round 4. Marcus Bontempelli’s stellar performance in that game, with 25 disposals, 11 clearances, and 12 tackles, is likely to be a significant factor in the upcoming match.

Given these factors, the Western Bulldogs are expected to triumph over Richmond Tigers, scoring 86-76. This prediction is based on the Bulldogs’ adaptability, their previous success against Richmond, and Richmond’s less-than-stellar performance at Marvel Stadium.

Betting Tip: Western Bulldogs @1.60

Suggested Bet: Bulldogs by 1-39 @2.20


Essendon Bombers vs West Coast Eagles

Saturday, August 5, 2023

1:45 PM @ Marvel Stadium

The game between the Essendon Bombers and the West Coast Eagles promises to be a decisive victory for Essendon. The West Coast Eagles have a dismal track record, losing their last 18 away matches. This, coupled with Essendon’s impressive performance on a seven-day turnaround in their last nine games, makes it clear that Essendon is the team to beat.

Essendon’s recent day matches have consistently gone over the total match points line, indicating a high-scoring game is on the horizon. On the other hand, the West Coast Eagles have lost their last eight away matches by a margin of 40+ points and their last five away games by a staggering 60+ points.

Given these facts, it’s reasonable to predict a final score of 117-63 in favour of Essendon.

Betting Tip: Essendon Bombers @1.06

Suggested Bet: Essendon LINE (50.5) @1.90


Adelaide Crows vs Gold Coast Suns

Saturday, August 5, 2023

2:10 PM @ Adelaide Oval

The Adelaide Crows are poised to triumph over the Gold Coast Suns in the upcoming AFL match. The Suns have a dismal record in South Australia, losing their last 14 games. This and Adelaide’s impressive home record make the Crows the clear favourites.

The betting odds further cemented Adelaide’s dominance, with the favourite covering the line in 16 of the 17 previous encounters. The Crows’ first-half solid performances at home, winning the first half in their last nine matches, also bodes well for them.

The Suns’ previous six matches at the Adelaide Oval have seen high-scoring games, going over the total match points line. This suggests that while the Suns may put up a fight, Adelaide’s superior form should see them prevail.

Expect a high-scoring match, with Adelaide emerging victorious with a score of 99-77. This match promises to be a showcase of Adelaide’s dominance and a testament to their home-ground advantage.

Betting Tip: Adelaide Crows @1.36

Suggested Bet: Crows by 1-39 @2.10


Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies

Saturday, August 5, 2023

4:35  PM @ MCG

Collingwood is the clear favourite With an impressive streak of 11 wins against teams on a losing run. Their recent form is a testament to their resilience and determination.

On the other hand, Hawthorn has shown commendable performance against Collingwood at the MCG, covering the line in their last five encounters. However, considering the Magpies’ current form, it’s hard to see the Hawks turning the tide this time around.

The MCG has been a high-scoring venue, with the last eight matches going over the total match points line. This trend is likely to continue, adding to the excitement of the game.

While Hawthorn will put up a strong fight, Collingwood’s current form and track record suggest this is a no brainer. Expect an excellent game, with Collingwood taking the win with a score of 94-63.

Betting Tip: Collingwood Magpies @1.14

Suggested Bet: Magpies HEAD-to-HEAD


Geelong Cats vs Port Adelaide Power

Saturday, August 5, 2023

7:25 PM @ GMHBA Stadium

Geelong Cats are set to face Port Adelaide Power in an exciting AFL match. The Cats have a remarkable record, winning their last 11 home matches against Port Adelaide. This dominance is not a mere coincidence but a testament to their consistent performance and strategic prowess.

Geelong’s record at GMHBA Stadium is equally impressive, having covered the line in their last eight night matches. This shows their ability to rise to the occasion under the floodlights, a factor that could play a significant role in the upcoming game.

Looking at the history of matches between these two teams, 11 of the last 14 games have gone UNDER the total match points line. This suggests a game of tight defences and strategic play rather than a high-scoring spectacle.

Geelong has also won seven of their last eight matches against Port Adelaide at GMHBA Stadium by a margin of 25+ points. This indicates their ability not just to win but win convincingly.
Interestingly, in each of Port Adelaide’s last six matches, the highest-scoring half has been the second. This could mean that Geelong needs to maintain their focus throughout the game, as Port Adelaide has shown they can come back strong in the latter stages.

Based on these factors, predicting a Geelong victory with a final score of 96-74 is likely. This aligns with their past performances and their ability to deliver under pressure.

Betting Tip: Cats @1.57

Suggested Bet: Cats by 1-39 @2.15


GWS Giants vs Sydney Swans

Saturday, August 5, 2023

7:30 PM @ Giants Stadium

Despite GWS’s impressive seven-match winning streak, the Swans are poised to break this run. The Swans have consistently demonstrated their ability to dominate the first half of the game, winning the first half in each of their last six matches. This early lead could be the key to their victory.

Moreover, in each of Sydney’s last three matches, the highest scoring quarter has been the first. This suggests that the Swans come out strong right from the start, a strategy that could potentially unsettle the Giants.

However, it’s important to note that GWS has a strong track record at GIANTS Stadium, winning seven of their last eight night matches. But, the Swans’ recent performance indicates they have the capability to challenge this record.

This game is set to be a close one, with both teams bringing their unique strengths to the field. However, the Sydney Swans’ early game dominance might just give them the edge they need to secure a victory, with a predicted final score of 86-79.

Betting Tip: Sydney Swans @2.10

Suggested Bet: Swans by 1-39 @2.55


North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Melbourne Demons

Sunday, August 6, 2023

1:10 PM @ Blundstone Arena

The Kangaroos, unfortunately, have been on a losing streak, with 17 consecutive losses. This, coupled with their inability to cover the line in their last six matches at Blundstone Arena, paints a bleak picture for their upcoming game.

On the other hand, the Demons have been performing exceptionally well. Their prowess on the field is undeniable, and they are expected to cover a 42.5-point line, a testament to their strength and strategy.

Moreover, the Kangaroos’ Blundstone Arena games have consistently exceeded the total match points line, indicating a high-scoring game. Given the Demons’ superior form, they are likely to be the main contributors to this scoreline.

The Melbourne Demons are set to dominate the game, with a predicted score of 104-60.

Betting Tip: Melbourne Demons @1.09

Suggested Bet: Demons by 40+ @1.70


St Kilda Saints vs Carlton Blues

Sunday, August 6, 2023

3:20 PM @ Marvel Stadium

Based on the recent performance and statistics, it’s clear that Carlton is on a winning streak, having triumphed in their last six matches. This impressive record and St Kilda’s struggle to cover the line in six of their last seven games paints a promising picture for Carlton.

The Blues have demonstrated a consistent and robust performance, which is likely to continue in their upcoming match against the Saints. Given their current form, the predicted score of 83-62 in favour of Carlton seems plausible.

While St Kilda has had a challenging season, with five of their last six matches going under the total match points line, they will need to step up their game to compete with the Blues. However, the odds seem to be in Carlton’s favour, and we can anticipate a captivating match.

Based on current form and recent performances, Carlton is poised to secure another victory against St Kilda. The final score of 83-62 is a realistic expectation, reflecting Carlton’s superior form and St Kilda’s recent ups and downs.

Betting Tip: Carlton Blues @1.42

Suggested Bet: Blues by 1-39 @2.10


Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions

Sunday, August 6, 2023

4:40 PM @ Optus Stadium

Looking at recent form, Brisbane has been on a hot streak, winning an impressive 10 out of their last 11 matches, showing their dominance and consistency.

Additionally, Brisbane’s track record against the line has been solid, as they have failed to cover the line in each of their last four matches. This suggests that they tend to perform better than expected, making them a strong bet to surpass expectations once again.

The venue, Optus Stadium, has also been a favourable ground for low-scoring matches, with six of the last seven games there going under the total match points line. This might play into Brisbane’s hands, as they have shown a disciplined and structured defence, making it harder for their opponents to rack up high scores.

On the other hand, Fremantle has struggled in the first quarter in their recent matches, losing in 21 out of their last 23 games. This slow start could give Brisbane an early advantage, setting the tone for the rest of the match.

Considering all these factors, it is plausible to predict that Brisbane will emerge victorious against Fremantle with a score of 90-71. Their impressive form, the venue’s low-scoring history, and Fremantle’s slow starts collectively point towards a well-deserved win for Brisbane.

Betting Tip: Brisbane Lions @1.40

Suggested Bet: Lions by 1-39 @2.10


This Week’s AFL Multi Bet

  • Bulldogs
  • Crows
  • Cats
  • Blues
  • Lions

Take Bet: $6.79 with  Ladbrokes

Check out all of this week’s AFL Multi Tips on our Multi Bets Page.

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Ben H
Ben Harris is the Communications Manager for KRUZEY, an AFL expert, and writer. He has one daughter that he loves dearly and four children's books... [Read full bio]

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