AFL Betting Tips Finals Week 3

Last Updated on 22 September 2023

2023 AFL Preliminary Finals

The Australian Football League (AFL) Preliminary Finals represent the penultimate stage in the annual AFL competition, serving as the decisive matches that determine the two teams that will advance to the Grand Final. This stage is a critical juncture in the AFL season, as it signifies the elimination of two more clubs from the competition, leaving only the two victorious teams to vie for the championship the following week.

16Brisbane Lions	Image	Team	Predicted Score	Win Chance	Actual Score
16Sydney	#N/A	Collingwood	85	52.40%	#N/A
16Adelaide	#N/A	GWS	83	47.60%	#N/A
16Western Bulldogs
16Gold Coast	Image	Team	Predicted Score	Win Chance	Actual Score
16Essendon	#N/A	Brisbane	99	83.40%	#N/A
16Hawthorn	#N/A	Carlton	65	16.60%	#N/A

Collingwood Magpies vs. GWS Giants

Date: Friday, September 22, 2023

Time: 7:50 pm

Venue: MCG

The upcoming Friday Night Finals clash between Collingwood Magpies and GWS Giants at the MCG has all the signs of Collingwood stepping directly into the Grand Final.

The Magpies have a dominant record at home, winning 17 of their last 19 matches. This home advantage cannot be understated. When the two teams last met, Collingwood trounced GWS with a score of 120-55. Standout players like Jordan de Goey and Nick Daicos, who had stellar performances in that game, will be crucial. Especially Daicos, who is making a comeback after a four-match absence, is expected to make a significant impact.

However, it’s essential to consider the challenges. The Magpies will be without Taylor Adams due to a hamstring injury, which could be a setback. On the other hand, GWS’s Kieren Briggs is also under an injury cloud, which might affect the Giants’ performance.

Interestingly, given that Collingwood’s recent September night matches have seen lower total points and GWS’s trend of higher scores in the first half of night games, we can anticipate a game where the first half might see more action.

Betting Tip: Magpies @1.55

Suggested Bet: Collingwood 1-39 at $2.15

Brisbane Lions vs. Carlton Blues

Date: Saturday, September 23, 2023

Time: 5:15 pm

Venue: The Gabba

When the Brisbane Lions face off against the Carlton Blues at the Gabba this Saturday evening, it’s set to be a match of epic proportions. The Lions boast an impressive track record at the Gabba, having won their last 13 games. Their recent performance against Carlton in Round 8, highlighted by Josh Dunkley’s standout game and the combined firepower of Charlie Cameron and Zac Bailey, showcased their formidable form against an unexpected finals contender.

On the flip side, Carlton is gearing up with renewed vigour. And for the first time in 23 years, they have a real chance of playing in the Grand Final.

The anticipated return of Harry McKay and Jack Martin will undoubtedly strengthen their lineup. Their recent nail-biting 73-71 triumph over Melbourne is a testament to their resilience and ability to shine in high-pressure situations (Blue Boys won’t be backing down this week). It’s also worth noting that the underdog has covered the line in Carlton’s last five matches, suggesting they often rise above expectations.

Delving into the trends, Brisbane has consistently dominated the first half in their last eight encounters with Carlton and has a knack for ramping up the action in the third quarter. Meanwhile, Carlton’s recent matches have been edge-of-the-seat affairs, with four of their last five games being decided by a margin of 15 points or less.
In essence, both teams are bringing their A-game, and fans are in for an excellent game at the Gabba this Saturday evening.

Betting Tip: Lions @1.38

Suggested Bet: Brisbane 1-39 at $2.10

This Week’s AFL Preliminary Finals Multi Bet

Collingwood 1-39
Brisbane 1-39

Take this multi at $4.51 with Ladbrokes

Check out all of this week’s AFL Multi Tips on our Multi Bets Page.

AFL Pre-Lims

The Preliminary Finals follow a week-long break after the Semi-Finals. This pause allows the teams to rest, strategize, and prepare for the crucial games ahead. This competition stage involves four teams: the winners of the first and second Qualifying Finals and the winners of the two Semi-Finals.

In a unique feature of the AFL’s finals system, the winners of the first and second Qualifying Finals are granted a significant advantage in the Preliminary Finals: the privilege of hosting the games. This means that these matches are played at the home venues of the Qualifying Finals winners, providing them with the potential benefits of familiar surroundings and local fan support.

The AFL Preliminary Finals are thus a critical and exciting phase of the AFL season, a stage where the stakes are high and the tension palpable. The teams’ performances in these games determine their fate in the current season and set the stage for the thrilling Grand Final showdown that follows.