State Of Origin 2025 Game 3 Tips

Game 3 of the 2025 Ampol State of Origin on July 9 features the New South Wales Blues vs Queensland Maroons at Accor Stadium on Wednesday night. Get the latest Origin betting tips, predictions, and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Nine, 9NOW, Kayo & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

New South Wales Blues vs Queensland Maroons Predictions

Wednesday, July 9, 2025

8:05pm @ Accor Stadium, Sydney

Final Score Prediction

NSW

Blues

24 : 20

QLD

Maroons

The Origin shield will be decided in Sydney’s fortress.
After Queensland’s thrilling 26-24 comeback victory in Perth leveled the series, the decider returns to Accor Stadium where NSW’s impressive home record meets Queensland’s championship DNA. Our model gives the Blues the edge on their home turf.

Win Percentages

Blues
58.4%

Maroons
41.6%

The Market Assessment

NSW enter as $1.65 favourites on home soil, with their impressive 62% win rate at Accor Stadium justifying the short price.

Queensland at $2.30 offers value for those backing the Maroons’ ability to win big games on the road, as they proved with their Game 2 comeback in Perth.

The series couldn’t be more finely poised after both teams have shown their championship qualities.

Blues

Maroons

The Sydney Advantage

NSW’s dominance at Accor Stadium cannot be ignored – they’ve won 20 of their 32 Origin games at this venue (62% win rate) compared to Queensland’s 11 victories (34%).

After Queensland’s thrilling Game 2 fightback from 24-10 down to win 26-24, momentum might seem with the Maroons. But NSW’s ability to bounce back and their superior home record makes them rightful favourites.

Series So Far

The 2025 series has delivered classic Origin drama:

Game 1: NSW dominated 18-6 at Suncorp, silencing the Queensland crowd
Game 2: Queensland’s epic 26-24 comeback in Perth after trailing 24-10
Home Venue Stats: NSW win 62% at Accor vs QLD’s 34%
Overall H2H: Queensland lead all-time 71-61 with 2 draws
Current Form: Both teams at 50% this series (1 win each)

Game Style Prediction: High-stakes battle with NSW’s structure meeting Queensland’s never-say-die spirit
Expected Total: 44 points – Both teams showed attacking flair in Game 2’s 50-point thriller

Our Betting Strategy

Home Ground Heroes: NSW to Win

NSW Blues @ $1.65

The Blues’ 62% win rate at Accor Stadium speaks volumes. After the shock of losing Game 2, expect NSW to regroup and deliver on home soil.

Value Line: NSW -3.5

NSW -3.5 @ $1.90

Our predicted 4-point margin makes this line attractive. NSW should control the game at home and cover this spread.

Total Points: Over 42.5

Over 42.5 @ $1.90

After Game 2’s 50-point thriller, expect another attacking decider. The pressure and stakes often lead to more open play in Game 3.

Queensland’s Upset Path

If you’re backing the Maroons at $2.30, you’re banking on their incredible Game 2 comeback carrying over to Sydney.

Queensland showed tremendous character to overturn a 14-point deficit in Perth, and they’ve proven they can win anywhere when their backs are against the wall. Their overall series record (71-61) shows they know how to win the big moments.

Key Factor: Queensland must start fast and silence the Sydney crowd early. If they let NSW dictate terms at home, the mountain becomes too steep.

The Bottom Line

Origin deciders don’t get bigger than this. NSW’s home ground advantage at Accor Stadium, where they win 62% of the time, makes them deserving favourites.

Queensland’s Game 2 heroics will count for nothing if they can’t reproduce that intensity in enemy territory. But if any team can defy the odds, it’s the Maroons in an Origin decider.

Back NSW at home, but write off Queensland at your peril in what promises to be another Origin epic.

Remember to gamble responsibly.