AFL Betting Tips Round 19

AFL Expert Tips Round 19

 

This week’s AFL Round 19 tips and predictions begins on Friday with the Bombers taking on the Crows at the Marvel Stadium, and finishing up with the Blues and the Kangaroos once again at Marvel Stadium on Sunday with no teams sitting out this round with a bye.

Bombers vs Crows

Friday, July 19, 2024

7:40 pm @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne

This Friday night at Marvel Stadium, Essendon takes on Adelaide at 7:40 pm. Expect typical Melbourne weather of 10-11 degrees and a high chance of showers, thankfully the roof will be closed.

Outcome Prediction:

• Final Scores: Essendon Bombers: 85, Adelaide Crows: 75
• Win Percentages: Essendon Bombers: 60.47%, Adelaide Crows: 38.31%

After watching the Bombers game last week I think we need to take a quick moment and reflect on what exactly happened, granted we were expecting the Demons to win, however we were not expecting the absolute drubbing that unfolded and I think it is safe to say the Bombers team at this point in time has no idea how to handle a wet ball, this week however the game will be played with the roof closed so we can expect them to run rings around the Crows absolutely shooting their disposals through the roof.

While the Crows are leading the Bombers in almost every single stat, alot of that has to do with last weeks game as the stats have significantly changed since.

Bombers tackle efficiency is super solid at 61.6 in comparison to the Crows 55.1 which will be a huge factor in this weeks game, let’s hope the Crows have their twinkle toes in good running order.

Final Score Prediction: Bombers 85-75

 

GWS vs Suns

Saturday, July 20, 2024

1:45 PM @ ENGIE Stadium, Sydney

This Saturday arvo, the GWS Giants are squaring off against the Gold Coast Suns at ENGIE Stadium, Sydney. Kickoff is at 1:45 pm, and it’s expected to be partly cloudy with temps around 15-17 degrees and 24 km/h winds.

Outcome Prediction:

• Final Scores: GWS: 94, Gold Coast: 78
• Win Percentages: GWS: 67.98%, Gold Coast: 31.13%

GWS is coming in with back-to-back wins, while the Suns even after winning last week have had more losses than wins as of late. The Giants dominate disposals with an average of 375.6 to the Suns’ 350.8.

Gold Coast isn’t slacking either though. Noah Anderson’s been a standout with 29 disposals and 11 clearances last game.

Gold Coast’s tackle efficiency inside 50 is solid, but GWS’s forward line efficiency at 48.9% is what makes the difference. Look for Toby Greene Ben King, and Jesse Hogan on the scoreboard.

Final Score Prediction: GWS 94-78

 

Saints vs Eagles

Saturday, July 20, 2024

1:45 PM @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne

This Saturday arvo at Marvel Stadium, the Saints face the Eagles. As for weather, were looking at a partly cloudy day, around 11-12°C with a 40% chance of rain at game time.

Outcome Prediction:

• Final Scores: St Kilda: 87, West Coast: 67
• Win Percentages: St Kilda: 72.66%, West Coast: 26.42%

St Kilda’s (at 15th on the ladder) isn’t fairing too much better than the Westies (holding their ground at 16th), and even though West Coast has been on a losing streak longer than a kid’s wish list at Christmas the Saints still have their work cut out for them this week if they want half a chance at bumping themselves up the ladder this season. The Saints are averaging 357.9 disposals per game compared to the Eagles’ 312.1. Additionally St Kilda’s racked up 220.9 kicks on average, trumping West Coast’s 189.8.

Defensively, the Saints also have the upper hand with 61.6 tackles per game and 11.2 inside 50, putting West Coast’s 55.1 and 9.6 to shame.

St Kilda’s forward line might not be the best, but their pressure game will be solid against the Eagles.

Final Score Prediction: Saints 87-67

 

Hawks vs Magpies

Saturday, July 20, 2024

4:35 PM @ MCG, Melbourne

This Saturday arvo at the MCG, it’s the Hawks versus the Magpies. Regarding the weather, we’re looking at a typical Melbourne winter’s day, around 9-11°C with a bit of cloud cover and a 20% chance of rain.

Outcome Prediction:

• Final Scores: Hawthorn: 80, Collingwood: 85
• Win Percentages: Hawthorn: 45.34%, Collingwood: 53.73%

Hawthorn’s coming in this week with decent form standing at WWWLW, while Collingwood’s in a nosedive, losing their last three. In terms of disposals, Hawthorn averages 347.4 per game compared to Collingwood’s 344.9, making it tight in the midfield.

The Hawks love a mark inside 50, averaging 12.6 compared to Collingwood’s 10.6. But it’s the Pies’ tackling that stands out, with 65.1 tackles per game against Hawthorns 59.4 meaning the Hawks really do need to bring their A-game

Collingwood’s got a knack for goal efficiency, averaging 12.6 goals to Hawthorn’s 11.4 Despite Hawthorn’s recent form neither team technically has a home ground advantage, Collingwood’s better scoring and tackling should edge them ahead.

Final Score Prediction: Magpies 85-80

 

Cats vs Western Bulldogs

Saturday, July 20, 2024

7:30 PM @ GMHBA Stadium, Geelong

This Saturday night at GMHBA Stadium, the Cats and Bulldogs go head-to-head in weather the Cats army is all too familiar with. Expect a cold night around 6-8°C, thankfully there is little chance of rain expected but it is going to be extremely cold.

Outcome Prediction:

• Final Scores: Geelong: 90, Western Bulldogs: 88
• Win Percentages: Geelong: 51.05%, Western Bulldogs: 47.95%

Geelong (currently in third) have been on a roll winning their last three games, but the Dogs teetering on the edge of the top eight in 10th position are not a team to be brished past this season. The Cats average 353.9 disposals per game to the Bulldogs’ 372.3 making this game a catch up for the Catters.

When it comes to scoring, both teams are neck and neck, with Geelong slightly ahead averaging 13.8 goals to the Bulldogs’ 13.5. Inside 50s are almost even, but the Dogs get the nod in efficiency, sitting slightly ahead at 49.6% to the Cats’ 47.9%.

Defensively, Geelong’s got a higher tackle rate at 65.3 per game, but the Dogs make it count with 11.9 tackles inside 50. The Cats’ turnover rate is a worry at 68.1 compared to the Bulldogs’ 63.6.

One thing that can never be looked past though is that this is the Cats home ground, and at home… the Cats are an incredibly tough team.

Final Score Prediction: Cats 90-88

 

Power vs Tigers

Saturday, July 20, 2024

7:30 PM @ Adelaide Oval, Adelaide

This Saturday night at the Adelaide Oval, the Power take on the Tigers. Expect a chilly winter night around 9-10°C with light winds and a small chance of rain.

Outcome Prediction:

• Final Scores: Port Adelaide: 104, Richmond: 70
• Win Percentages: Port Adelaide: 82.60%, Richmond: 16.60%

Both Port and Richmond are a little worse for wear coming into this week with the Power losing three of their last 5. Port Adelaide’s averaging 348 disposals per game to Richmond’s 331.2, clearly showcasing who’s the boss in ball control.

As for inside 50s, Port leads with 53.6 on average, trumping Richmond’s 47.1. Their efficiency inside 50 is also better at 52.3% compared to Richmond’s 42.3%. When it comes to tackles, Port’s putting in the hard yards with 62.9 per game against Richmond’s 52.2.

Last time they met, Port romped home 122-92… this week we can see a very similar situation unfolding.

Final Score Prediction: Power 104-70

 

Lions vs Swans

Sunday, July 21, 2024

1:10 PM @ Gabba, Brisbane

This Sunday at the Gabba, the Lions face off against the Swans. Expect a sunny day in Brisbane, around 21°C at game time with minimal wind.

Outcome Prediction:

• Final Scores: Brisbane: 97, Sydney: 93
• Win Percentages: Brisbane: 54.62%, Sydney: 44.25%

The Lions (4th) are roaring into this weeks game winning their six last games in a row, while the Swans (1st) are fluttering about only winning 3 of their last five games. Brisbane’s been strong in disposals, averaging 358.8 per game, but Sydney slightly pips them with 361.9.

Looking at inside 50s Brisbane slightly leads with 57.8, compared to Sydney’s 56.4. However, the Swans are more efficient inside 50, sitting at 51.5% to the Lions’ 48.2%. Sydney’s a tad better with tackles averaging 59.9 per game against Brisbane’s 56.9.

Brisbane’s forward line has been solid with 13.6 goals per game, but Sydney’s forward line is super sharp, averaging 15.2 goals.

This week at the Gabba, the Lions are fighting to maintain dominance, and the Swans comfortably resting on top, we see the Lions taking this round.

Final Score Prediction: Lions 97-93

 

Dockers vs Demons

Sunday, July 21, 2024

3:20 PM @ Optus Stadium, Perth

This Sunday at the Optus Stadium, the Dockers and Demons go head-to-head. Expect a slightly different Perth day, around 16-19°C with cloud cover and intermittent showers.

Outcome Prediction:

• Final Scores: Fremantle Dockers: 85, Melbourne Demons: 68
• Win Percentages: Fremantle Dockers: 68.90%, Melbourne Demons: 29.96%

After winning three in a row and popping themselves comfortably in the 8 Fremantle (5th) lost last week against the Hawks 87-74, while Melbourne’s been a bit like my Aunt Dotty’s tea and managed to scramble their way into the 8 after noticably better wet ball skills against the Bombers. Fremantle has the upper hand in disposals, averaging 368 to Melbourne’s 348.2.

Regarding efficiency inside 50, it’s a close shave—Freo’s at 50.1% slightly better than Melbourne’s 47.5%. Freo’s got the goods in clearances, leading 39.6 to 34.9. All in all the Dockers are the better team and at home in Perth we can’t see the Demons walking away with a win.

Final Score Prediction: Dockers 85-68

 

Blues vs Kangaroos

Sunday, July 21, 2024

4:40 PM @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne

This Sunday arvo at Marvel Stadium, the Blues take on the Roos. Expect a cool day on the way to Marvel, around 12°C and the roof on the Stadium.

Outcome Prediction:

• Final Scores: Carlton: 113, North Melbourne: 70
• Win Percentages: Carlton: 87.58%, North Melbourne: 11.81%

The Blues (2nd) are keen to bounce back from a couple of stumbling these past two weeks while the Roos (17th) are still seeking that mysterious third win. Carlton’s been impressive in disposals, averaging 359 per game to North’s 350.8. Inside 50s tell a clearer story—Carlton’s got 52 per game to North’s 44.4, and this is going to be one of the biggest issues the Roos face this week.

Carlton’s efficiency inside 50 is solid at 51.4%, compared to North’s 42.4%. The Blues also have the upper hand in tackles inside 50 at 12.8 compared to the Roos 8.2.

The Blues will win this one comfortably, unfortunately for the Kangas that elusive third win wont be happening this week.

Final Score Prediction: Blues 113-70

 

Byes:

N/A

 

This Week’s AFL Multi Bet

• GWS
• Saints
• Power
• Dockers
• Blues

Take Bet: $3.21 with  Ladbrokes

 

 

Check out all of this week’s AFL multi tips on our Multi Bets Page.

 

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