AFL Betting Tips Round 1

Michael Kruse / 15 March 2023

AFL Expert Tips Round 1

1Richmond Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
1Geelong Richmond Tigers Icon Richmond 93 60.29% 58
1Kangaroos Carlton Blues Icon Carlton 83 38.72% 58
1Port Adelaide
1Melbourne Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
1Gold Coast Geelong Cats Icon Geelong 90 67.98% 103
1GW Sydney Collingwood Magpies Icon Collingwood 73 30.86% 125
1St Kilda Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
North Melbourne Icon Kangaroos 89 53.41% 87
West Coast Eagles Icon West Coast 85 45.52% 82
Column to hide
after pasting Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
game keys above Port Adelaide Power Icon Port Adelaide 94 66.26% 126
Brisbane Lions Icon Brisbane Lions 79 32.74% 72
Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
Melbourne Demons Icon Melbourne 83 51.65% 115
Western Bulldogs Icon Western Bulldogs 81 47.31% 65
Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
Gold Coast Suns Icon Gold Coast 87 52.00% 61
Sydney Swans Icon Sydney 85 46.89% 110
Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
GWS Giants Icon GW Sydney 87 64.32% 106
Adelaide Crows Icon Adelaide 74 34.65% 90
Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
Hawthorn Hawks Icon Hawthorn 87 52.29% 65
Essendon Bombers Icon Essendon 84 46.59% 124
Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
St. Kilda Saints Icon St Kilda 76 53.64% 67
Fremantle Dockers Icon Fremantle 73 45.18% 52


Richmond vs Carlton

Thursday, March 16, 2023

7:20 PM @ The MCG

The stage is set for a classic MCG clash between Richmond and Carlton! The Tigers have the advantage, having won 12 of their last 13 home games against Carlton. Richmond has won the first half in each of their previous 11-night matches, and with their recent success against Carlton, they’re guaranteed to get out to a fast start. Moreover, Tom Lynch is on fire, having scored four or more goals in each of their past three MCG games. Carlton, on the other side, is dealing with a lengthy injury list that includes crucial players Sam Walsh and Zac Williams.

According to the statistics, Richmond has covered the line in each of its last six MCG night matches, and nine of its last ten matches have gone OVER the total match points line. Patrick Cripps of Carlton may have had 30+ disposals in six of their last seven games against Richmond, but it may not be enough to overcome Richmond’s outstanding team play. George Hewett has an impressive 25+ disposal record in 14 of his last 15 matches, but can he and the Blues overcome Richmond’s dominance at home?

Richmond will win by a score of 93-83, in my opinion. It won’t be easy, but with their home record and Carlton’s injury list, the Tigers have a good chance to start the season on a high note.

Betting Tip: Richmond

Suggested Bet: Richmond Head-to-Head


Geelong vs Collingwood

Friday, March 17, 2023

7:40 PM @ The MCG

Geelong and Collingwood will square off at the MCG on Friday night to kick off their 2023 seasons. Geelong has a 16-match winning streak, including a win against Collingwood in last year’s qualifying final. While the Magpies have made some adjustments, the Cats have brought in several new players throughout the summer. Collingwood has won their last five games against the defending premiers, but eight of their last twelve games have been decided by 15 points or less. Geelong has won their past 11 home games, with Brad Close scoring at least one goal in each. Meanwhile, Collingwood’s Jamie Elliott has scored eight goals in their last nine games at the MCG.

Let’s be honest, with Tyson Stengle booting at least two goals in 11 of Geelong’s previous 12 home matches and Jeremy Cameron’s outstanding three-goal effort in last year’s qualifying final, the Cats look like a safe bet.

Our prediction is that Geelong will win by a score of 90-73.

Betting Tip: Geelong

Suggested Bet: Cats Line -11.5


North Melbourne vs West Coast

Saturday, March 18, 2023

1:45 PM @ Marvel Stadium

It’s a struggle for the underdogs! North Melbourne and West Coast meet at Marvel Stadium, with the Kangaroos having the upper hand. The Roos are seeking redemption following a disappointing 2022 season, thanks to new coach Alastair Clarkson plus some new talented recruits. Also, they defeated West Coast the last time they met. Nick Larkey will once again be a key contributor, kicking goals left, right, and centre. West Coast will mourn the retired Josh Kennedy and Jack Redden, despite having some excellent players.

Don’t underestimate the Roos; they’re ready to retaliate and hop their way to victory this Friday!

The final score will be close, but we’re predicting a North Melbourne victory of 89-85.

Betting Tip: Kangaroos

Suggested Bet: Roos Winning Margin 1-39


Port Adelaide vs Brisbane

Saturday, March 18, 2023

4:35 PM @ Adelaide Oval

Prepare for an exciting match! The Brisbane Lions are in Adelaide, hoping to extend their five-match winning streak over Port Adelaide.

The Power, have been hard at work in the off-season, bringing in new talent and making tweaks to their roster.

With a couple of goals each, Charlie Dixon and Todd Marshall will lead the way for the Power, while Ollie Wines and Zac Butters will dominate in the midfield.

On the Lions’ side, keep a watch out for Charlie Cameron, who is sure to put a few through the big sticks. But, it will be Port Adelaide’s resolve and grit that will secure the victory.

This game does have the potential to go either way, but we think Port Adelaide is going to dominate this game and will win by a score of 94-79.

Betting Tip: Port Adelaide

Suggested Bet: Port Adelaide Head-to-Head


Melbourne vs Bulldogs

Saturday, March 18, 2023

7:25 PM @ MCG

Football fans, get ready! Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs are set to play an epic Round 1 match at the MCG. It’s a rematch of the 2021 Grand Final, and both clubs will be hoping to get their seasons off to a winning start. While the Bulldogs are tempting at $2.65, Melbourne is the club to beat. They’ve won six of their last eight home games, and with players like Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca dominating the Dogs in the past, they’re a force to be reckoned with.

So grab a snag and a beer and prepare to watch some football!

Expect a nail-biter, but we’re predicting the Demons will win with a final score of 83-81.

Betting Tip: Demons

Suggested Bet: Western Bulldogs Line +11.5


Gold Coast vs Sydney

Saturday, March 18, 2023

8:00 PM @ Heritage Bank Stadium

Prepare for a spectacular season-opening game for the Suns and the Swans at Heritage Bank Stadium.

Gold Coast is anxious to demonstrate that they are no pushovers, and they have the ability to finish in the top eight this year. Meanwhile, Sydney is looking to avenge last year’s grand final loss to Geelong.

The Suns have the upper hand today, having won three of their last four meetings with the Swans. David Swallow stood out in their previous meeting, and he’s eager to do it again. Noah Anderson and Ben King will also pitch in to help.

The Swans have some offensive firepower in Isaac Heeney, Lance Franklin, and Tom Papley, but it may not be enough to compete with the Suns.

We forecast a close game, but the Suns will win by a score of 87-85.

Betting Tip: Suns

Suggested Bet: Suns Head-to-Head


GWS Giants vs Adelaide

Sunday, March 19, 2023

1:10 PM @ Giants Stadium

The Giants are poised to take on Adelaide in their season opener at GIANTS Stadium. They’re excited to get their season started with new coach Adam Kingsley at the helm and some promising offseason acquisitions. Not to mention that they’ve completely destroyed Adelaide in their last two meetings, with Josh Kelly leading the way.

On the other side, despite having a decent record against the favourite in recent matches, Adelaide has yet to crack GWS.

Moreover, with the Giants covering the spread in six of their last eight home games, it’s evident that they’re a force to be reckoned with.

So prepare to see the Giants stamp their authority on the season with a good start.

We predict an 87-74 victory for the Giants, with players like Cadman and Bedford stepping up to make an impact.

Betting Tip: Giants

Suggested Bet: GWS Win/Unders points


Hawthorn vs Essendon

Sunday, March 19, 2023

3:20 PM @ MCG

Get ready for a tight game between Hawthorn and Essendon at the MCG on Sunday afternoon!

The Hawks have undergone significant changes this season, while the Bombers have a new coach and a new philosophy.

Don’t overlook the Hawks’ capacity to win in Round 1; while they’ve won their last five openers they have all been by less than 39 points.

Essendon has a dismal record at the MCG as of late, having lost seven of their last eight games there.

To make matters worse, the Bombers haven’t covered the spread in their last eight March games.

Hence, if you want to bet on a winner, go with the Hawks to beat the odds and finish the job. If you’re feeling particularly lucky, consider betting a few dollars on the game to go above the total match points line.

It will be a close game, but we believe the Hawks will win with a final score of 87-84.

Betting Tip: Hawks

Suggested Bet: Hawthorn Line +9.5


St Kilda vs Fremantle

Sunday, March 19, 2023

4:40 PM @ Marvel Stadium

Prepare for a Sunday arvo clash between St Kilda and Fremantle at Marvel Stadium.

The Saints will be hoping to make a statement against last year’s finalists, with Ross Lyon returning as coach.

Fremantle has a solid recent record against St Kilda, but the Saints have won 14 of their previous 18 home games against the Dockers and covered the line in 12 of their last 13-day matchups.

Expect a close game with St Kilda prevailing 76-73 due to their constant third-quarter domination and five of their past six matches going UNDER the total points line.

Betting Tip: Saints

Suggested Bet: St Kilda Line +9.5/Unders 


This week’s AFL Multi

  • Cats
  • Tigers
  • Power
  • Demons
  • Giants

Take Bet: $13.05 with  Ladbrokes

Check out this all of week’s AFL multi tips on our Multi Bets Page.

Multi Bet Tips

AFL Fixture

Check the AFL fixture for upcoming AFL matches this season.

AFL Injury List

Keep up-to-date with your team’s injuries this week with our AFL injury list.

Other Betting Tips

We don’t just do AFL Tips; our team of experts Also specialise in NRL betting and horse racing tips.

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Michael Kruse
Michael loves all things all horse racing and has been in the game for quite some time. His knowledge in the betting space is second... [Read full bio]

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