AFL Betting Tips Round 1

Michael Kruse / 14 March 2024

Last Updated on 7 May 2024

AFL Expert Tips Round 1

1Carlton Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
1Collingwood Carlton 88 64.28% 86
1Essendon Richmond 76 34.75% 81
1GW Sydney
1Geelong Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
1Gold Coast Collingwood 89 63.67% 69
1Melbourne Sydney 77 35.43% 102
1Port Adelaide
1Fremantle Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
Essendon 75 41.42% 107
Hawthorn 83 57.44% 83
Column to hide
after pasting Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
game keys above GW Sydney 107 85.50% 121
Kangaroos 68 13.75% 82
Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
Geelong 81 52.88% 76
St Kilda 78 46.09% 68
Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
Gold Coast 89 56.06% 60
Adelaide 83 42.81% 54
Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
Melbourne 82 59.01% 109
Western Bulldogs 74 39.79% 64
Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
Port Adelaide 108 87.06% 120
West Coast 67 12.29% 70
Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
Fremantle 84 55.70% 93
Brisbane Lions 78 43.03% 70
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Carlton vs Richmond

Thursday, March 14, 2024

7:30PM @ The MCG

Carlton has started the year on a high note winning their first match of the season last week against the Lions in a nail-biting 86-85 win, The Tigers on the other hand sit at the opposite end of the bus after losing to the Suns by 39 points.

This weeks prediction should be a pretty simple one and we would be silly not to assume that the Blues will win, however, we must also keep in mind that last time they met it ended in a 58-58 draw and there are also a number of injuries returning to the game this week for the Tigers to help boost their arsenal; for the Blues we have Carroll, Doherty, Marchbank, Martin, Motlop, Silvagni, Walsh, and Weitering all out which could definitely casue some issues for the Blues.

That said, the Blues are the still better team this week and should take home the win.

Betting Tip: Carlton Blues

Suggested Bet: Blues – winning margin 1-39 @ $2.05

 

Collingwood vs Sydney

Friday, March 15, 2024

7:40PM @ The MCG

This weeks game between the Maggies and Swans is an interesting one, Collingwood lost to the Giants in opening round while Sydney managed to score a win against the Demons.

The Swans don’t play too well at the MCG scoring 20.3 points less at the stadium than their season average, and considering the Magpies are playing at home coming off a loss, they will be a fighting force to be reckoned with this week.

regarding injuries, the Magpies have Jeremy Howe currently testing to see if he is fit for play along with McStay and Murphy both having their injuries looking to be confirmed, Kreuger Eyre, and DeMattia are all out for at least another few weeks; As for Sydney, Adams, Parker, Arnold, Sheldrick, Kirk, and Mills will all be out this week which will surely have an impact of their game.

Our money is on the Magpies this week, with too much pride at stake, and a tonne of support at home, they should be back on the winning train this Friday night.

Betting Tip: Collingwood Magpies

Suggested Bet: Collingwood – winning margin 1-24 @ $3.15

 

Essendon vs Hawthorn

Saturday, March 16, 2024

1:45PM @ The MCG

Both missing out on Opening Round last week, the Bombers and Hawks game this Saturday has the Bombers tipped as favourites to win the game.

In their last meeting the Bombers absolutely destroyed the Hawks winning by 59 points, and with games between these two teams typically being a high scoring affair we can expect the game to be OVER the total points line.

Essendon has Dylan Shiel looking to come back onto the field this week as they are still awaiting word on whether his foot is up to the task while Baldwin, Hunter, Parish, Ridley, and Wanganeen will all miss out this week.

Hawthorns injury list is almost too long to list however they do have both Mitchell and Moore looking to play this week if all goes well in testing.

Betting Tip: Essendon Bombers

Suggested Bet: Bombers – OVER 168.5 @1.88

 

GWS Giants vs North Melbourne

Saturday, March 16, 2024

4:35PM @ Giants Stadium

After an incredible game against the reigning premiers last week the Giants will be looking to solidify their position at the top of the ladder this week as they take on the North Melbourne Kangaroos.

The Roos are yet to play this season and if last year is anything to go by we may see one of the biggest point differences in the history of the AFL this week, (last year the Kangaroos only won three games).

Finn Callaghan might be fit to return for the Giants this week depending how he goes in testing, however the Giants will still be short Cumming, Gothard, Kennedy, Leake, Preuss, Ward, and Wardius.

The Roos on the Other hand have Corr and McDonald awaiting results from tests, as Logue and Simpkin have no timeline of when they will be returning.

The Giants should win this week easily, however they do have a few key players out which may reduce their winning margin.

Betting Tip: Giants

Suggested Bet: Giants – To Win Both Halves @ $1.44

 

Geelong vs St Kilda

Saturday, March 16, 2024

7:30PM @ GMHBA Stadium

It’s an exciting week for the Cats as this is the first time in 10 years that they have played their first game of the season at GMHBA stadium, as favourites playing at home this is one game you want to witness if you can make it down there.

The Catters have additionally won their past 11 games against the Saints at home, so expect the Cats army to be in full swing this weekend.

Cam Gurthrie and Gary Rohan are in the sick bay at the moeent and wont be looking to come back to the game for at least the next 4 weeks for the Cats, while the Saints are missing a significant portion of their team with Butler, Clark, Dow, Hayes, Howard, Paton, Van Es, and Webster all missing this weeks game, Jack Sinclair is still questionable as we await the results from testing.

The Cats are at home, and their the favourite, add to this that the Saints have a bunch of injuries and there is no doubt in my mind that the Cats will win this weeks game.

Betting Tip: Geelong Cats

Suggested Bet: Cats – Winning Margin 1-39 @ $2.10

 

Gold Coast vs Adelaide

Saturday, March 16, 2024

8:10PM @ People First Stadium

The Suns are coming into Round 1 after a 39-point win against the Tigers in the Opening Round, while for the Crows, this will be their first game of the season.

With the Crows winning slightly less than half of their games last season they will be looking at a new lease on life on Saturday as they seek to notch a win against the Suns at the Suns home turf.

The Suns will be without Davies Rogers, Walter and Weller this week due to varying injuries, however the Crows are also starting their season with sevral key injuries including Murray, Schoenberg, Sloane, and Thilthorpe.

If the skills portrayed last week are anything to go by, then the Suns will win this week, however we must also bear in mind that historically the Crows always play an excellent game of football at the beginning of the season.

Expect a close game with the Suns winning by around 15 points.

Betting Tip: Gold Coast Suns

Suggested Bet: Suns – Winning Margin 1-39 @ 2.25

 

Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs

Sunday, March 17, 2024

1:00PM @ The MCG

Melbourne’s second game this season has them up against the Western Bulldogs who are yet to play a game, the Demons first game however left them walking away with their devil tails between their legs after a 22-point loss to the Swans.

The Bulldogs sat in the middle of the field last season winning 11 games which resulted in them not being able to make the finals.

Looking at the injuries for both teams the Demons will be without Bowey, Hunter, Smith, and Turner, while McAdam, Melksham, and Petty all have a chance to make it back on the field this week; for the Bulldogs Croft, Gardner, O’Driscoll, and Smith are all out, while Dale, O’Donnell and Vandemeer all have a chance at playing.

Honestly this is a tougher call than expected but the injuries for the Bulldogs will prove to be significant, were expecting a Demons win.

Betting Tip: Melbourne Demons

Suggested Bet: Demons – Head-to-Head @ $1.67

 

Port Adelaide vs West Coast

Sunday, March 17, 2024

4:00PM @ Adelaide Oval

First week back for the Power and the Eagles, Port Adelaide will be hosting the game at home as the Eagles start their rebuilding journey (bad short term news for Eagles fans).

unfortunately for the Eagles, 8 of their last 10 games have all been lost by more than 40 points, adding to that they have also lost 19 of their last 20 games so things arent looking good for the struggling team from the west.

Regarding injuries Marshall may be able to play this week for Port Adelaide, with Jackson, Lord, McCallum, and Powell-Pepper all stuck in the sick corner; meanwhile in the Eagles corner, Bazzo’s groin is still in question, Brockman and Hall may be able to play dependent on testing, and Hewett is still awaiting confirmation on his foot, unfortunately though Culley, Edwards, Flynn, Reid, Ryan,  and Sheed are all out for at least the next few weeks.

With both teams having their first game this week its a little too early to tell how they will go against each other but expecting a win for the Power is a good bet.

Betting Tip: Port Adelaide Power

Suggested Bet: Power – Winning Margin 40+ points @ $1.60

 

Fremantle vs Brisbane

Sunday, March 17, 2024

6:50PM @ Optus Stadium

This week marks the second game for Brisbane this season as the Dockers make their way onto the field for the first time after a dismal season last year.

The Dockers do have the added bonus of having the home field advantage this week, however after Brisbanes hard fought loss last week to the Blues its safe to say they will be coming into this game determined for a win.

Dockers injuries this week include: Chapman, Corbett, Darcy, Kuek, Stanley, and Wagner all missing out on at least this weeks game, with Cox, Frederick, and Murphy all awaiting test results, as Jones and O’Driscoll are still awaiting confirmation on their injuries.

Brisbanes injury list this week includes: Coleman, Doedee, and Michael all out with Ashcroft and Zakostelesky still awaiting confirmation on their injuries.

With Brisbanes close call against the Blues last week, and the significant list of injuries in the Dockers corner it’s fair to say that the Lions will be making an impact on the scoreboard this week.

Betting Tip: Brisbane Lions

Suggested Bet: Lions – Winning Margin 40+ @ 3.90

Check out this all of week’s AFL multi tips on our Multi Bets Page.

AFL Fixture

Check the AFL fixture for upcoming AFL matches this season.

AFL Injury List

Keep up-to-date with your team’s injuries this week with our AFL injury list.

Other Betting Tips

We don’t just do AFL Tips; our team of experts Also specialise in NRL betting and horse racing tips.

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Michael Kruse
Michael loves all things all horse racing and has been in the game for quite some time. His knowledge in the betting space is second... [Read full bio]

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