Round 1 AFL Football Tips
AFL Football tips for Round 1 can be found below. Considering this is a new year, new players, team dynamics, and so forth it’s fair to say that anything can happen in the first few rounds of the AFL Toyota Premiership. Therefor we have given you the straight up facts to give you the truest account of what is happening in the AFL this week.
AFL Round 1
Round 1 kicks off with the Richmond Tigers taking on the Carlton Blues on March 13 at the MCG. This is followed by a huge weekend of AFL football across Melbourne, Geelong, Sydney, Adelaide, and Perth. Get all the latest AFL betting tips and catch every game live on Kayo, Foxtel & 7. 🏉🔥
AFL Round 1 Tips and Predictions
Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues
Thursday, March 13, 2025
7:30 pm @ The MCG, Melbourne
Final Score Prediction
Tigers
Win Percentages
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Neds had the head to head for Richmond Tigers set at $10.50, and $1.04 for the Carlton Blues, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Opportunity Bet
The bookmaker heavily favours Carlton with a 96.15% implied probability, while our analysis suggests their actual chance of winning is 82%. That’s a big overestimation! On the flip side, Richmond is given just a 9.52% chance by the bookies, while our numbers suggest they’ve actually got an 18% chance.
This means Richmond is undervalued in the market. Based on our calculations, Richmond’s true odds should be closer to $5.56, but the bookies are offering $10.50. That’s a huge discrepancy, creating a value opportunity for those looking to take a high-risk, high-reward punt on the Tigers.
Final Takeaway
Carlton is rightly favoured, but the odds on Richmond seem inflated. If our numbers are correct, betting on Richmond at $10.50 provides serious value. It’s still a long shot, but if upsets happen, this is the kind of edge that can be profitable in the long run.
Suggested Betting Tip:
Carlton 40+ @ $1.48 with
neds
H-2-H Bet:
Carlton (NO VALUE) @ $1.04 with
neds
Head-to-Head Stats – Richmond vs. Carlton (2025 Season)
- Average Points For Per Match: Richmond: -, Carlton: –
- Average Points Against Per Match: Richmond: -, Carlton: –
- Average Winning Margin: Richmond: -, Carlton: –
- Average Losing Margin: Richmond: -, Carlton: –
- HT/FT Double %: Richmond: -, Carlton: –
- Highest Score For: Richmond: -, Carlton: –
- Highest Score Against: Richmond: -, Carlton: –
- Biggest Win: Richmond: -, Carlton: –
- Biggest Loss: Richmond: -, Carlton: –
- Highest Total Match Score: –
- Lowest Total Match Score: –
- Goal Accuracy For %: Richmond: -, Carlton: –
- Goal Accuracy Against %: Richmond: -, Carlton: –
- Current Streak: Richmond: -, Carlton: –
- Current Form: Richmond: -, Carlton: –
- Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Richmond: -, Carlton: –
- Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Richmond: -, Carlton: –
- Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Richmond: -, Carlton: –
Hawthorn Hawks vs Essendon Bombers
Friday, March 14, 2025
7:40 pm @ The MCG, Melbourne
Final Score Prediction
Hawks
Win Percentages
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Neds had the head to head for Hawthorn Hawks set at $1.35, and $3.25 for the Essendon Bombers, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Opportunity Bet
The bookmakers are slightly undervaluing Hawthorn, giving them a 70.65% probability, while our analysis suggests they should be 75%. That means there’s a small edge in backing the Hawks, as they might be slightly more likely to win than the odds suggest.
On the flip side, the bookies are overvaluing Essendon at 29.53%, when our analysis has them at just 25%. That means there’s no real value in betting on the Bombers at these odds.
Verdict
There’s a marginal edge on Hawthorn, but not enough to be a standout value bet. If their odds drift slightly higher, it could become a stronger play!
Head-to-Head Stats (Season 2025)
-
- Average Points For Per Match: Hawthorn: 96.0, Essendon: N/A
- Average Points Against Per Match: Hawthorn: 76.0, Essendon: N/A
- Average Winning Margin: Hawthorn: 20.0, Essendon: N/A
- Average Losing Margin: Hawthorn: N/A, Essendon: N/A
- HT/FT Double: Hawthorn: 100.0%, Essendon: N/A
- Highest Score For: Hawthorn: 96, Essendon: N/A
- Highest Score Against: Hawthorn: 76, Essendon: N/A
- Biggest Win: Hawthorn: 20, Essendon: N/A
- Biggest Loss: Hawthorn: N/A, Essendon: N/A
- Highest Total Match Score: 172
- Lowest Total Match Score: 172
- Goal Accuracy For: Hawthorn: 63.6%, Essendon: N/A
- Goal Accuracy Against: Hawthorn: 61.1%, Essendon: N/A
- Current Streak: Hawthorn: W1, Essendon: N/A
- Current Form: Hawthorn: W, Essendon: N/A
- Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Hawthorn: 0.0%, Essendon: N/A
- Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Hawthorn: 100.0%, Essendon: N/A
- Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Hawthorn: 0.0%, Essendon: N/A
Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers
Saturday, March 15, 2025
1:20 pm @ GMHBA Stadium, Geelong
Final Score Prediction
Cats
Win Percentages
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Neds had the head to head for Geelong Cats set at $1.52, and $2.50 for the Fremantle Dockers, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Opportunity Bet
The bookmakers have the Cats at a 62.21% chance of winning, but our analysis suggests they are actually stronger, with a 72% chance. On the flip side, the Dockers are slightly overrated by the bookmaker at 37.79%, while our calculations put them at just 28%.
This means there isn’t a huge betting edge in backing Geelong, as the odds of $1.52 are already quite reflective of their chances. However, it does indicate the Cats are being slightly undervalued, making them a relatively safe bet.
Final Verdict
While there isn’t a massive value opportunity in this matchup, if our calculations are correct, Geelong is the better bet. They are more dominant than the bookmaker suggests, but with odds of $1.52, the edge isn’t significant enough for a major betting advantage.
Head-to-Head Stats (Season 2025)
- Average Points For Per Match: Geelong: N/A, Fremantle: N/A
- Average Points Against Per Match: Geelong: N/A, Fremantle: N/A
- Average Winning Margin: Geelong: N/A, Fremantle: N/A
- Average Losing Margin: Geelong: N/A, Fremantle: N/A
- HT/FT Double: Geelong: N/A, Fremantle: N/A
- Highest Score For: Geelong: N/A, Fremantle: N/A
- Highest Score Against: Geelong: N/A, Fremantle: N/A
- Biggest Win: Geelong: N/A, Fremantle: N/A
- Biggest Loss: Geelong: N/A, Fremantle: N/A
- Highest Total Match Score: N/A
- Lowest Total Match Score: N/A
- Goal Accuracy For: Geelong: N/A, Fremantle: N/A
- Goal Accuracy Against: Geelong: N/A, Fremantle: N/A
- Current Streak: Geelong: N/A, Fremantle: N/A
- Current Form: Geelong: N/A, Fremantle: N/A
- Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Geelong: N/A, Fremantle: N/A
- Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Geelong: N/A, Fremantle: N/A
- Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Geelong: N/A, Fremantle: N/A
Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions
Saturday, March 15, 2025
4:15 pm @ The SCG, Sydney
Final Score Prediction
Swans
Win Percentages
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Neds had the head to head for Sydney Swans is set at $2.00, and $1.82 for the Brisbane Lions, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Opportunity Bet
The bookmakers are giving Sydney a 47.64% chance of winning, but our analysis suggests they only have a 25% chance. Meanwhile, Brisbane is underrated by the bookmaker, with an implied probability of 52.36%, whereas our numbers give them a much stronger 75% chance.
This means there is a clear betting edge on Brisbane. At odds of $1.82, the Lions represent strong value because their actual chances of winning are significantly higher than what the bookmaker suggests.
Final Verdict
Based on our analysis, Brisbane Lions at $1.82 is a value bet. If our probabilities are accurate, this wager offers a strong edge.
Head-to-Head Stats (Season 2025)
- Average Points For Per Match: Swans: 76.0, Lions: N/A
- Average Points Against Per Match: Swans: 96.0, Lions: N/A
- Average Winning Margin: Swans: N/A, Lions: N/A
- Average Losing Margin: Swans: 20.0, Lions: N/A
- HT/FT Double: Swans: 0.0%, Lions: N/A
- Highest Score For: Swans: 76, Lions: N/A
- Highest Score Against: Swans: 96, Lions: N/A
- Biggest Win: Swans: N/A, Lions: N/A
- Biggest Loss: Swans: 20, Lions: N/A
- Highest Total Match Score: 172
- Lowest Total Match Score: 172
- Goal Accuracy For: Swans: 61.1%, Lions: N/A
- Goal Accuracy Against: Swans: 63.6%, Lions: N/A
- Current Streak: Swans: L1, Lions: N/A
- Current Form: Swans: L, Lions: N/A
- Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Swans: 0.0%, Lions: N/A
- Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Swans: 0.0%, Lions: N/A
- Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Swans: 0.0%, Lions: N/A
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
Saturday, March 15, 2025
7:35 pm @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Final Score Prediction
Bulldogs
Win Percentages
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Neds had the head to head for Western Bulldogs is set at $1.36, and $3.10 for the North Melbourne Kangaroos, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Opportunity Bet
The bookmakers have the Bulldogs at 69.52%, but our analysis suggests they are even stronger, with an 85% chance of winning. Meanwhile, the Kangaroos are overvalued by the bookmaker, with an implied probability of 30.48%, when our numbers suggest they only have a 15% chance.
This means there is a strong betting edge in favour of the Bulldogs. At odds of $1.36, they offer solid value given their much higher likelihood of winning.
Final Verdict
Based on our analysis, Western Bulldogs at $1.36 is a strong value bet. While the odds are short, they still present a clear edge over the bookmaker’s assessment. If our probabilities hold, this is a high-confidence pick.
Head-to-Head Stats (Season 2025)
- Average Points For Per Match: Western Bulldogs: N/A, North Melbourne: N/A
- Average Points Against Per Match: Western Bulldogs: N/A, North Melbourne: N/A
- Average Winning Margin: Western Bulldogs: N/A, North Melbourne: N/A
- Average Losing Margin: Western Bulldogs: N/A, North Melbourne: N/A
- HT/FT Double: Western Bulldogs: N/A, North Melbourne: N/A
- Highest Score For: Western Bulldogs: N/A, North Melbourne: N/A
- Highest Score Against: Western Bulldogs: N/A, North Melbourne: N/A
- Biggest Win: Western Bulldogs: N/A, North Melbourne: N/A
- Biggest Loss: Western Bulldogs: N/A, North Melbourne: N/A
- Highest Total Match Score: N/A
- Lowest Total Match Score: N/A
- Goal Accuracy For: Western Bulldogs: N/A, North Melbourne: N/A
- Goal Accuracy Against: Western Bulldogs: N/A, North Melbourne: N/A
- Current Streak: Western Bulldogs: N/A, North Melbourne: N/A
- Current Form: Western Bulldogs: N/A, North Melbourne: N/A
- Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Western Bulldogs: N/A, North Melbourne: N/A
- Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Western Bulldogs: N/A, North Melbourne: N/A
- Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Western Bulldogs: N/A, North Melbourne: N/A
Collingwood Magpies vs Port Adelaide Power
Saturday, March 15, 2025
7:35 pm @ The MCG, Melbourne
Final Score Prediction
Magpies
Win Percentages
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Neds had the head to head for Collingwood Magpies set at $1.62, and $2.35 for the Port Adelaide Power, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Opportunity Bet
The bookmakers slightly overrate Collingwood, giving them a 59.19% chance of winning, while our analysis suggests they are closer to 55%. On the other hand, Port Adelaide is slightly undervalued, with an implied probability of 40.81%, while our calculations give them a 45% chance.
While the difference isn’t huge, this creates a slight edge in backing Port Adelaide at $2.35. Their actual chances are slightly higher than what the bookmaker’s odds suggest, meaning there could be some value in backing them.
Final Verdict
While it’s a fairly even matchup, Port Adelaide at $2.35 offers a small value opportunity. If you’re looking for an edge, they may be the better bet based on our numbers.
Head-to-Head Stats (Season 2025)
- Average Points For Per Match: Collingwood: 52.0, Port Adelaide: N/A
- Average Points Against Per Match: Collingwood: 104.0, Port Adelaide: N/A
- Average Winning Margin: Collingwood: N/A, Port Adelaide: N/A
- Average Losing Margin: Collingwood: 52.0, Port Adelaide: N/A
- HT/FT Double: Collingwood: 0.0%, Port Adelaide: N/A
- Highest Score For: Collingwood: 52, Port Adelaide: N/A
- Highest Score Against: Collingwood: 104, Port Adelaide: N/A
- Biggest Win: Collingwood: N/A, Port Adelaide: N/A
- Biggest Loss: Collingwood: 52, Port Adelaide: N/A
- Highest Total Match Score: 156
- Lowest Total Match Score: 156
- Goal Accuracy For: Collingwood: 30.0%, Port Adelaide: N/A
- Goal Accuracy Against: Collingwood: 57.7%, Port Adelaide: N/A
- Current Streak: Collingwood: L1, Port Adelaide: N/A
- Current Form: Collingwood: L, Port Adelaide: N/A
- Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Collingwood: 0.0%, Port Adelaide: N/A
- Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Collingwood: 0.0%, Port Adelaide: N/A
- Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Collingwood: 0.0%, Port Adelaide: N/A
Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints
Sunday, March 16, 2025
12:35 pm @ Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Final Score Prediction
Crows
Win Percentages
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Neds had the head to head for Adelaide Crows set at $1.40, and $2.95 for the St Kilda Saints, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Opportunity Bet
The bookmakers strongly favour the Crows, giving them a 67.83% chance of winning. But based on our analysis, their true chances sit at just 42%. On the other hand, the Saints are undervalued—bookies say they only have a 32.17%chance, but our numbers suggest they should be the favourites at 58%.
Value Opportunity: St Kilda Saints
This miscalculation creates a betting edge for St Kilda. Based on our calculations, the Saints should be priced at around $1.72, but Neds is offering $2.95—a huge value play.
If our analysis holds true, betting on St Kilda at these odds would be a profitable way to go, as their actual win probability is significantly higher than what the bookmaker suggests.
Head-to-Head Stats (Season 2025)
- Average Points For Per Match: Adelaide: N/A, St Kilda: N/A
- Average Points Against Per Match: Adelaide: N/A, St Kilda: N/A
- Average Winning Margin: Adelaide: N/A, St Kilda: N/A
- Average Losing Margin: Adelaide: N/A, St Kilda: N/A
- HT/FT Double: Adelaide: N/A, St Kilda: N/A
- Highest Score For: Adelaide: N/A, St Kilda: N/A
- Highest Score Against: Adelaide: N/A, St Kilda: N/A
- Biggest Win: Adelaide: N/A, St Kilda: N/A
- Biggest Loss: Adelaide: N/A, St Kilda: N/A
- Highest Total Match Score: N/A
- Lowest Total Match Score: N/A
- Goal Accuracy For: Adelaide: N/A, St Kilda: N/A
- Goal Accuracy Against: Adelaide: N/A, St Kilda: N/A
- Current Streak: Adelaide: N/A, St Kilda: N/A
- Current Form: Adelaide: N/A, St Kilda: N/A
- Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Adelaide: N/A, St Kilda: N/A
- Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Adelaide: N/A, St Kilda: N/A
- Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Adelaide: N/A, St Kilda: N/A
Melbourne Demons vs GWS Giants
Sunday, March 16, 2025
3:20 pm @ The MCG, Melbourne
Final Score Prediction
Demons
Win Percentages
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Neds had the head to head for Melbourne Demons is set at $2.10, and $1.72 for the GWS Giants, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Opportunity Bet
The bookmaker odds are fairly close to our calculated probabilities. The Giants are given a 59.96% implied probability, which aligns closely with our 60% estimate. Similarly, the Demons’ implied probability of 45.04% is slightly higher than our 40% projection.
No Significant Value Found
Since the bookmaker’s odds are in line with our predictions, there isn’t a clear value bet in this matchup. The GWS Giants at $1.72 is a reasonable price based on our analysis, but it doesn’t present a significant edge for betting.
Head-to-Head Stats (Season 2025)
- Average Points For Per Match: Melbourne: N/A, GWS: 104.0
- Average Points Against Per Match: Melbourne: N/A, GWS: 52.0
- Average Winning Margin: Melbourne: N/A, GWS: 52.0
- Average Losing Margin: Melbourne: N/A, GWS: N/A
- HT/FT Double: Melbourne: N/A, GWS: 100.0%
- Highest Score For: Melbourne: N/A, GWS: 104
- Highest Score Against: Melbourne: N/A, GWS: 52
- Biggest Win: Melbourne: N/A, GWS: 52
- Biggest Loss: Melbourne: N/A, GWS: N/A
- Highest Total Match Score: 156
- Lowest Total Match Score: 156
- Goal Accuracy For: Melbourne: N/A, GWS: 57.7%
- Goal Accuracy Against: Melbourne: N/A, GWS: 30.0%
- Current Streak: Melbourne: N/A, GWS: W1
- Current Form: Melbourne: N/A, GWS: W
- Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Melbourne: N/A, GWS: 0.0%
- Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Melbourne: N/A, GWS: 100.0%
- Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Melbourne: N/A, GWS: 0.0%
West Coast Eagles vs Gold Coast Suns
Sunday, March 16, 2025
6:10 pm @ Optus Stadium, Perth
Final Score Prediction
Eagles
Win Percentages
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Neds had the head to head for GWS Giants is set at $1.85, and $1.96 for the Collingwood Magpies, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Opportunity Bet
The bookmakers slightly overrate the Eagles, giving them a 38.45% chance, while our analysis suggests they only have 35%. Meanwhile, the Suns’ implied probability (61.55%) is slightly lower than our projection (65%), meaning there is a small edge on Gold Coast.
Value Opportunity: Small Edge on the Suns
With our numbers suggesting a 65% chance of a Suns victory, their fair odds should be around $1.54, compared to the $1.53 offered by Neds. This means there’s no significant value, but if you’re backing a side, the Suns are still the better play.
Head-to-Head Stats (Season 2025)
- Average Points For Per Match: West Coast: N/A, Gold Coast: N/A
- Average Points Against Per Match: West Coast: N/A, Gold Coast: N/A
- Average Winning Margin: West Coast: N/A, Gold Coast: N/A
- Average Losing Margin: West Coast: N/A, Gold Coast: N/A
- HT/FT Double: West Coast: N/A, Gold Coast: N/A
- Highest Score For: West Coast: N/A, Gold Coast: N/A
- Highest Score Against: West Coast: N/A, Gold Coast: N/A
- Biggest Win: West Coast: N/A, Gold Coast: N/A
- Biggest Loss: West Coast: N/A, Gold Coast: N/A
- Highest Total Match Score: N/A
- Lowest Total Match Score: N/A
- Goal Accuracy For: West Coast: N/A, Gold Coast: N/A
- Goal Accuracy Against: West Coast: N/A, Gold Coast: N/A
- Current Streak: West Coast: N/A, Gold Coast: N/A
- Current Form: West Coast: N/A, Gold Coast: N/A
- Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): West Coast: N/A, Gold Coast: N/A
- Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): West Coast: N/A, Gold Coast: N/A
- Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): West Coast: N/A, Gold Coast: N/A
2025 AFL Premiership Season – Round 1 Schedule
Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues
- Thursday, March 13, 2024
- 7:30 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne
Hawthorn Hawks vs Essendon Bombers
- Friday, March 14, 2024
- 7:40 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne
Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers
- Saturday, March 15, 2024
- 1:20 pm AEDT @ GMHBA Stadium, Geelong
Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions
- Saturday, March 15, 2024
- 4:15 pm AEDT @ SCG, Sydney
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
- Saturday, March 15, 2024
- 7:35 pm AEDT @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Collingwood Magpies vs Port Adelaide Power
- Saturday, March 15, 2024
- 7:35 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne
Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints
- Sunday, March 16, 2024
- 12:35 pm AEDT @ Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Melbourne Demons vs GWS GIANTS
- Sunday, March 16, 2024
- 3:20 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne
West Coast Eagles vs Gold Coast SUNS
- Sunday, March 16, 2024
- 6:10 pm AEDT @ Optus Stadium, Perth
AFL Fixture
Check the AFL fixture for upcoming AFL matches this season.
AFL Injury List
Keep up-to-date with your team’s injuries this week with our AFL injury list.
Other Betting Tips
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