2024 AFL Grand Final Betting Tips
The 2024 AFL Grand Final has finally arrive, and what a ride it has been to get here! The Swannies and the Lions will be walking out onto the MCG where one team will go down in the history books.
Using advanced tracking, data analysis and statistics, we have ran the analysis thousands of times to get the following results to get you the most accurate tips and predictions for this weeks AFL game.
Swans vs Lions Prediction
Friday, September 28, 2024
2:30 pm @ MCG, Melbourne
After pulling off a 10 point win against the Cats last week, the Brisbane Lions will be taking on the Swannies in the Grand Final this Saturday after dominating the Power last week in a 40 point win.
Final Scores
Swans
Win Percentages
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Neds had the head to head for Sydney Swans set at $1.75, and $2.10 for the Brisbane Lions, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
- Swans: 54.55%
- Brisbane Lions: 45.46%
We ran our own tests using advanced metrics and statistics resulting in a much closer probability between the two teams taking into account all statistics ran throughout the season.
Currently the odds for Brisbane Lions are undervalued by the bookmakers and Lions should actually be closer to $2.02, this presents a value opportunity for a Brisbane Lions bet.
Winning Margin Probabilities
While the anticipated margins favour a 1-39 point winning margin suggesting a close game, the odds are slightly better for the Swans with a 4.56% higher chance of winning by 1-39 than the Brisbane Lions.
Historically when playing each other the Swans and Lions total score is 3.1 points higher than the 170.5 total points, considering this is the Grand Final and we should be expecting a free for all we are anticipating less points than average so an UNDER bet is recommended.
Half-time/Full-time Probabilities
Anytime Goal Kicker
| Brisbane Lions | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|
| Joe Daniher – 1.06
94.34%
|
Tom Papley – 1.16
86.21%
|
| Charlie Cameron – 1.17
85.47%
|
Joel Amartey – 1.18
84.75%
|
| Eric Hipwood – 1.33
75.19%
|
Will Hayward – 1.20
83.33%
|
| Kai Lohmann – 1.40
71.43%
|
Chad Warner – 1.28
78.13%
|
| Cam Rayner – 1.48
67.57%
|
Isaac Heeney – 1.28
78.13%
|
Head-to-Head Stats:
To provide a clearer picture of how these teams stack up, here’s a head-to-head comparison based on their 2024 season and finals statistics:
- Average Points For Per Match: Swans 97.0, Lions 93.4 – (Swans by 3.6 points)
- Average Points Against Per Match: Swans 76.4, Lions 77.0 – (Swans by 0.6 points)
- Average Winning Margin: Swans 35.6, Lions 34.9 – (Swans by 0.7 points)
- Average Losing Margin: Swans 26.8, Lions 21.0 – (Lions by 5.8 points)
- HT/FT Double: Swans 48.0%, Lions 50.0% – (Lions by 2.0%)
- Goal Accuracy For: Swans 59.5%, Lions 56.4% – (Swans by 3.1%)
- Goal Accuracy Against: Swans 56.0%, Lions 58.9% – (Lions by 2.9%)
- Current Streak: Swans W5, Lions W4
- Comeback % (Win After Trailing at HT): Swans 70.0%, Lions 44.4% – (Swans by 25.6%)
Suggested Betting Tip:
Lions to win by 1-39 @ $2.55 with
Neds
OVER/UNDER Bet:
UNDER 170.5 @ $1.88 with
Neds
Same Game Multi:
Winning Margin: Lions 1-39
Anytime Goal Kicker: Kai Lohmann
HT/FT Double: Lions/Lions
Total Points: UNDER 170.5
Total: $7.85 with Neds
This Week’s AFL Multi Bet
- TBC
Take Bet: $- with Ladbrokes
Explore all of our expert multi tips on the Multi Bets Page.
AFL Fixture
Check the AFL fixture for upcoming AFL matches this season.
AFL Injury List
Keep up-to-date with your team’s injuries this week with our AFL injury list.
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We don’t just do AFL Tips; our team of experts Also specialise in NRL betting and horse racing tips.
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Previous AFL Grand Final Winners
Due to the VFL changing its focus to a national game instead of just targeting the Victorian state, the VFL rebranded to the AFL In 1990.
| AFL Season | AFL Premiers | Final Score | AFL Runners Up | Stadium | Attendance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | TBC | TBC | TBC | (MCG) | – |
| 2022 | Geelong Cats | 133-52 | Sydney Swans | (MCG) | 100,024 |
| 2021 | Melbourne Demons | 140-66 | Western Bulldogs | Optus Stadium | 61,118 |
| 2020 | Richmond Tigers | 81-50 | Geelong Cats | The Gabba | 29,707 |
| 2019 | Richmond Tigers | 114-25 | GWS Giants | (MCG) | 100,014 |
| 2018 | West Coast Eagles | 79-74 | Collingwood Magpies | (MCG) | 100,022 |
| 2017 | Richmond Tigers | 108-60 | Adelaide Crows | (MCG) | 100,021 |
| 2016 | Western Bulldogs | 89-67 | Sydney Swans | (MCG) | 99,981 |
| 2015 | Hawthorn Hawks | 107-61 | West Coast Eagles | (MCG) | 98,633 |
| 2014 | Hawthorn Hawks | 137-74 | Sydney Swans | (MCG) | 99,454 |
| 2013 | Hawthorn Hawks | 77-62 | Fremantle Dockers | (MCG) | 100,007 |
| 2012 | Sydney Swans | 91-81 | Hawthorn Hawks | (MCG) | 99,683 |
| 2011 | Geelong Cats | 119-81 | Collingwood Magpies | (MCG) | 99,537 |
| 2010 | Collingwood Magpies | 108-52 | St. Kilda Saints | (MCG) | 93,853 |
| 2010 | DRAW (Collingwood V St. Kilda) | 68-68 | DRAW (Collingwood V St. Kilda) | (MCG) | 100,016 |
| 2009 | Geelong Cats | 80-68 | St. Kilda Saints | (MCG) | 99,251 |
| 2008 | Hawthorn Hawks | 115-89 | Geelong Cats | (MCG) | 100,012 |
| 2007 | Geelong Cats | 163-44 | Port Adelaide Power | (MCG) | 97,302 |
| 2006 | West Coast Eagles | 85-84 | Sydney Swans | (MCG) | 97,431 |
| 2005 | Sydney Swans | 58-54 | West Coast Eagles | (MCG) | 91,898 |
| 2004 | Port Adelaide Power | 113-73 | Brisbane Lions | (MCG) | 77,671 |
| 2003 | Brisbane Lions | 134-84 | Collingwood Magpies | (MCG) | 79,451 |
| 2002 | Brisbane Lions | 75-66 | Collingwood Magpies | (MCG) | 91,817 |
| 2001 | Brisbane Lions | 108-82 | Essendon Bombers | (MCG) | 91,482 |
| 2000 | Essendon Bombers | 135-75 | Melbourne Demons | (MCG) | 96,249 |
| 1999 | North Melbourne Kangaroos | 124-89 | Carlton Blues | (MCG) | 94,228 |
| 1998 | Adelaide Crows | 105-70 | North Melbourne Kangaroos | (MCG) | 94,431 |
| 1997 | Adelaide Crows | 125-94 | St. Kilda Saints | (MCG) | 99,645 |
| 1996 | North Melbourne Kangaroos | 131-88 | Sydney Swans | (MCG) | 93,102 |
| 1995 | Carlton Blues | 141-80 | Geelong Cats | (MCG) | 93,670 |
| 1994 | West Coast Eagles | 143-63 | Geelong Cats | (MCG) | 93,860 |
| 1993 | Essendon Bombers | 133-89 | Carlton Blues | (MCG) | 96,862 |
| 1992 | West Coast Eagles | 113-85 | Geelong Cats | (MCG) | 95,007 |
| 1991 | Hawthorn Hawks | 139-86 | West Coast Eagles | Waverley Park | 75,230 |
| 1990 | Collingwood Magpies | 89-41 | Essendon Bombers | (MCG) | 98,944 |
