AFL Betting Tips Round 7

Ben H / 27 April 2023

AFL Round 7 Tips

7St Kilda Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
7Brisbane Lions St. Kilda Saints Icon St Kilda 81 64.24% 76
7Sydney Port Adelaide Power Icon Port Adelaide 69 34.70% 83
7Western Bulldogs
7Melbourne Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
7West Coast Brisbane Lions Icon Brisbane Lions 103 81.28% 115
7Essendon Fremantle Dockers Icon Fremantle 71 17.89% 67
7Adelaide Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
Sydney Swans Icon Sydney 100 74.36% 106
GWS Giants Icon GW Sydney 76 24.80% 107
Column to hide
after pasting Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
game keys above Western Bulldogs Icon Western Bulldogs 92 77.11% 94
Hawthorn Hawks Icon Hawthorn 66 22.08% 65
Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
Melbourne Demons Icon Melbourne 108 84.26% 139
North Melbourne Icon Kangaroos 71 14.94% 49
Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
West Coast Eagles Icon West Coast 81 33.58% 44
Carlton Blues Icon Carlton 96 65.38% 152
Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
Essendon Bombers Icon Essendon 81 30.39% 104
Geelong Cats Icon Geelong 100 68.81% 32
Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
Richmond Tigers Icon Richmond 96 67.36% 48
Gold Coast Suns Icon Gold Coast 80 31.66% 72
Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
Adelaide Crows Icon Adelaide 88 49.29% 58
Collingwood Magpies Icon Collingwood 88 49.83% 59


St Kilda vs Port Adelaide

Friday, April 28, 2023

7:50 PM @ Marvel Stadium

St Kilda should defeat Port Adelaide in Friday night’s encounter at Marvel Stadium. St Kilda is a potential top-four candidate with a great record at Docklands, whilst Port Adelaide has only won one of the last 12 meetings with St Kilda. Furthermore, St Kilda’s Jack Sinclair has recorded 25+ disposals in each of their last eight games, making him a vital contributor.

While Port Adelaide has covered the line in seven of their past seven games at Marvel Stadium and has won their last three games as an underdog against St Kilda by a margin of 1-39 points, these statistics cannot be relied on. This season, St Kilda has a stronger record and has been consistently good at Docklands.

The final result should be about 81-69 in St Kilda’s favour. Seven of St Kilda’s last eight matches at Marvel Stadium have finished UNDER the total match points line, meaning the total points scored will most likely be fewer than usual. Overall, St Kilda has the better team and should win easily.

Betting Tip: Saints

Suggested Bet: Saints WINNING MARGIN 1-39


Brisbane vs Fremantle

Saturday, April 29, 2023

1:45 PM @ The Gabba

The Brisbane Lions should defeat the Fremantle Dockers in their Saturday afternoon clash. The Lions enter the game off the back of a dominating 108-87 win over the GWS Giants, with Charlie Cameron scoring seven goals. Brisbane also has a strong home record of 21-3 in its last 24 games at the Gabba. On the other side, Fremantle will be trying to avenge their 118-69 loss to the Western Bulldogs last week. Despite defeating Brisbane in 2022, the Dockers have lost their previous three games at the Gabba.

Brisbane’s domination in daytime contests at the Gabba, where they have won 15 of their last 16 games, could possibly offer them an advantage in this match. In contrast, Fremantle has covered the line as an underdog in six of their last seven games following a loss, but this may not be enough to upset Brisbane’s confident form. Brisbane’s ability to score points, with eleven of their past twelve-day matches going over the total match points line, might lead to a high-scoring contest.

Based on these criteria, the Brisbane Lions are projected to win with a final score of 103-71 over the Fremantle Dockers. With Charlie Cameron in peak form, Brisbane should be able to outscore their opponents and secure a spot in the top eight.

Betting Tip: Lions

Suggested Bet: Lions WINNING MARGIN 1-39


Sydney vs GWS Giants

Saturday, April 29, 2023

2:10 PM @ SCG

In the ‘Battle of the Bridge,’ Sydney will face GWS at the SCG. Despite their huge setback last week, Sydney remains a strong opponent and is poised to rebound against their crosstown rivals. GWS, on the other side, has failed to establish form this season, losing their previous five games against the spread.

GWS has some excellent players, notably Josh Kelly and Stephen Coniglio, but they will face a Sydney squad that has won nine of its past ten games at the SCG. Furthermore, Sydney has won their last two meetings against GWS, with Luke Parker taking home the Brett Kirk Medal in each.

Given these variables, it’s feasible to conclude that Sydney will be the overwhelming favourite to win this game. The Swans will likely triumph by a score of roughly 100-76. Sydney is the team to favour this encounter because of their home-field advantage, good recent play, and impressive track record versus GWS.

Betting Tip: Swans

Suggested Bet: Swans TOTAL POINTS OVER 151.5


Bulldogs vs Hawthorn

Saturday, April 29, 2023

4:35 PM @ Marvel Stadium

This Saturday, the Western Bulldogs will look to maintain their winning ways against a faltering Hawthorn side. The Bulldogs head into this game high on confidence after a convincing win against Fremantle, where Marcus Bontempelli was outstanding. On the other hand, Hawthorn has lost three consecutive games and failed to hold fourth-quarter leads in the last two. The Bulldogs have dominated this match in recent years, defeating the Hawks twice last season, including a 125-83 victory at Marvel Stadium. However, with Hawthorn’s recent run, it’s hard to see them pulling off an upset here.

The Bulldogs have been dominant at home, winning their previous five games at Marvel Stadium, and the underdogs have covered the line in all of those games. The Bulldogs’ outstanding form and home record, along with Hawthorn’s recent troubles, implies that the Bulldogs are the clear favourites to win. While Hawthorn will fight hard, the Bulldogs will likely pull away in the second half, with a final score of 92-66 in their favour.

Betting Tip: Bulldogs

Suggested Bet: Western Bulldogs WINNING MARGIN 1-39


Melbourne vs North Melbourne

Saturday, April 29, 2023

7:25 PM @ MCG

Melbourne should easily defeat North Melbourne at the MCG on Saturday night. The Demons enter the game in solid form, having won their last match against Richmond and going 3-0 in Victoria this season. On the other hand, North Melbourne has dropped four of their previous five games and struggled in April, losing 15 of their last 20. Nevertheless, Melbourne is expected to win by a large margin, with the Kangaroos failing to cover the line in five of their last six home games.

Melbourne was forced to fight back from a 25-point second-quarter hole against Richmond in their most recent encounter, driven by strong performances from Jack Viney and Jacob van Rooyen. On the other side, North Melbourne was defeated by Gold Coast, with Ben Cunnington being the star performer for the Kangaroos. The last time these two teams met, Melbourne triumphed by 47 points, largely thanks to Clayton Oliver’s outstanding effort.

Melbourne should win by a large margin based on these statistics and current form, with a final score of 108-71. North Melbourne has lost their last four night matches by 40 points or more, and Melbourne’s excellent record while playing in Victoria only strengthens their position as the clear favourites in this match. Furthermore, nine of the previous 11 meetings between these two clubs have gone OVER the total match points line, indicating that both teams will have plenty of chances to score.

Betting Tip: Demons

Suggested Bet: Demons WINNING MARGIN 1-39


West Coast vs Carlton

Saturday, April 29, 2023

7:30 PM @ Optus Stadium

Carlton is likely to defeat West Coast at Optus Stadium on Saturday. Despite their setback to St Kilda last week, the Blues will be looking to make amends against the struggling Eagles, who have only won one game this season. West Coast showed some promise against Port Adelaide, but it wasn’t enough to seal a victory.

The Eagles’ last game included standouts Tim Kelly and Jai Culley, but Carlton possesses the firepower to negate their influence. Meanwhile, the Blues are expected to lift their game following a disappointing performance last week, with experienced players like Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh ready to step up.

Based on their previous meeting at Optus Stadium, where Carlton easily won, the Blues are predicted to win again. The ultimate score should be approximately 96-81 in Carlton’s favour. However, despite the Eagles’ previous pattern of high-scoring third quarters, they are unlikely to overcome Carlton’s formidable defence and midfield.

Carlton has the upper hand in this game and should be able to clinch a much-needed victory. The Eagles may put up a fight, but the Blues’ superior talents and experience should take them through to an easy win.

Betting Tip: Carlton

Suggested Bet: LINE West Coast Eagles (+26.5)


Essendon vs Geelong

Sunday, April 30, 2023

1:10 PM @ MCG

Geelong can defeat Essendon at the MCG on Sunday with a predicted score of 100-81. Geelong comes into the game on a four-game winning streak, including a thrashing of Sydney in which Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins combined for ten goals. Patrick Dangerfield is also on fire, making them a difficult squad to beat. Essendon is in trouble, having just lost to Collingwood after blowing a 28-point lead. They’ve won just two of their last eleven games at the MCG.

Geelong has won their previous four games against Essendon, including three victories by 40 points or more. Essendon has a dismal record against reigning premiers, losing nine of their last ten meetings. Geelong has covered the line in nine of their previous ten games against top-eight opponents, demonstrating they can compete with the best. Geelong’s last five MCG encounters have all exceeded the total match points line, proving they are also a high-scoring team.

Geelong currently boasts better form, players, and statistics entering this encounter, while Essendon is floundering. As a result, Geelong should have no issue winning this match.

Betting Tip: Cats

Suggested Bet: Cats WINNING MARGIN 1-39


Richmond vs Gold Coast

Sunday, April 30, 2023

3:20 PM @ Marvel Stadium

In an entertaining Monday night match, Melbourne will take on Richmond. Notwithstanding their problems to cover the line in their past Monday matches, Melbourne should win against a Richmond team that has lost their last three. Although Richmond’s last three MCG meetings have been close, Melbourne’s stronger form should give them the advantage.

The total match points line has gone UNDER in their last six night matchups versus Richmond. This predicts that the game will be a close one, with both teams expected to play a tight defensive game. Melbourne’s ability to maintain possession and limit turnovers, as well as capitalise on scoring opportunities, will be critical to their success.

According on their current performance, Melbourne should win this game by a score of 94-81. While Richmond may keep the gap tight, Melbourne’s powerful defence and precision finishing should be too much for the Tigers to handle in the end. Melbourne’s players will be revved up for this crucial encounter, hoping to capitalise on their current fine form with a solid performance on Monday night.

Betting Tip: Tigers

Suggested Bet: Tigers WINNING MARGIN 1-39


Adelaide vs Collingwood

Sunday, April 30, 2023

4:40 PM @ Adelaide Oval

The forthcoming Adelaide vs. Collingwood matchup looks to be a duel of two evenly matched-sides. Adelaide is currently 4-2, and Collingwood is 5-1, and both teams have been in excellent form this season. Collingwood defeated Melbourne 91-86 in their previous game, thanks in large part to Nick Daicos’ outstanding performance. On the other hand, Adelaide has covered the line in four of their last five games against top-eight opponents, so they will not be taken lightly.

This game is too close to call, with both teams capable of winning. Collingwood, however, may have the edge based on their recent form and six straight wins over Adelaide. Having said that, Adelaide has been in excellent form of late, and with home-field advantage, they might easily win.

It’s difficult to anticipate the ultimate score. Given the level of quality of both teams, this match might easily result in a tie. However, if one side does win, it will most likely be by a close margin. A score of 95-91 for Collingwood or 92-89 for Adelaide would not be surprising. In any case, this will be a fascinating match that fans will not want to miss.

Betting Tip: Collingwood

Suggested Bet: DRAW – TOTAL POINTS OVER 169.5


This week’s AFL Multi

  • Saints
  • Swans
  • Blues
  • Cats
  • Tigers

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Ben H
Ben Harris is the Communications Manager for KRUZEY, an AFL expert, and writer. He has one daughter that he loves dearly and four children's books... [Read full bio]

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