Port Adelaide vs St Kilda Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 4

Port Adelaide Power vs St Kilda Saints Predictions

Game 7 of Round 4 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees Port Adelaide vs St Kilda on April 6 at Adelaide Oval on Sunday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel & Channel 7. 🏉🔥

Sunday, April 6, 2025

3:20 pm AEST @ Adelaide Oval, Adelaide

Final Score Prediction

Power

77 : 89

Saints

Win Percentages

Port Adelaide 46.0%

St Kilda 54.0%

Power

St Kilda

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Port Adelaide Power set at $1.53, and $2.45 for the St Kilda Saints, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Power 61.56%
Saints 38.44%

Opportunity Bet

The bookies are giving the Power a solid edge with a 61.56% implied chance, but our numbers don’t quite agree, we actually rate the Saints as the better side here, with a 54% chance of getting the win.

That makes St Kilda’s odds of $2.45 seriously juicy. According to our model, their true odds should be around $1.85, which means there’s a strong betting edge if you’re backing the Saints in this one.

St Kilda are being undervalued by the market, and at $2.45, they’re offering excellent value. If our prediction holds up, backing the Saints could be a very profitable play.

What to do?

Currently undervalued and better in the stats, St Kilda on the nose is the best way to go here, if you want to go the extra mile throwing them on for a 1-39 point win is still a decent option as these two typically score a tight game, also their last 5 games have all gone under the 167.5 predicted total.

Suggested Betting Tip:

St Kilda H-2-H @ $2.55 with
Ladbrokes

Winning Margin Bet:

St Kilda 1-39 @ $3.05 with
Ladbrokes

Line Bet:

St Kilda +12.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

OVER/UNDER Bet:

UNDER 167.5 @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

Port Adelaide vs St Kilda SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Port Adelaide: 81.7, St Kilda: 101.7 – (St Kilda by 20.0 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Port Adelaide: 92.0, St Kilda: 93.0 – (Port Adelaide by 1.0 point)
Average Winning Margin: Port Adelaide: 72.0, St Kilda: 44.5 – (Port Adelaide by 27.5 points)
Average Losing Margin: Port Adelaide: 51.5, St Kilda: 63.0 – (Port Adelaide by 11.5 points)
HT/FT Double %: Port Adelaide: 33.3%, St Kilda: 66.7% – (St Kilda by 33.4%)
Highest Score For: Port Adelaide: 140, St Kilda: 135 – (Port Adelaide by 5 points)
Highest Score Against: Port Adelaide: 136, St Kilda: 135 – (St Kilda more resilient by 1 point)
Biggest Win: Port Adelaide: 72, St Kilda: 82 – (St Kilda by 10 points)
Biggest Loss: Port Adelaide: 91, St Kilda: 63 – (St Kilda more resilient by 28 points)
Highest Total Match Score: Port Adelaide: 208, St Kilda: 207 – (Port Adelaide by 1 point)
Lowest Total Match Score: Port Adelaide: 132, St Kilda: 188 – (Port Adelaide by 56 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: Port Adelaide: 54.7%, St Kilda: 59.2% – (St Kilda by 4.5%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: Port Adelaide: 56.5%, St Kilda: 60.3% – (Port Adelaide by 3.8%)
Current Streak: Port Adelaide: L1, St Kilda: W2 – (St Kilda momentum)
Current Form: Port Adelaide: LWL, St Kilda: LWW – (St Kilda edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Port Adelaide: 50.0%, St Kilda: 0.0% – (St Kilda by 50%)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): Port Adelaide: 50.0%, St Kilda: 100.0% – (St Kilda by 50%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Port Adelaide: 0.0%, St Kilda: 0.0% – (Even)
Last 5 Encounters:
- 30 Jun 2024 (R16): Port Adelaide 62 def. St Kilda 60
- 26 Apr 2024 (R7): Port Adelaide 82 def. St Kilda 72
- 28 Apr 2023 (R7): Port Adelaide 83 def. St Kilda 76
- 30 Apr 2022 (R7): Port Adelaide 43 def. St Kilda 42
- 17 Jul 2021 (R18): Port Adelaide 74 def. St Kilda 61