West Coast vs Melbourne Prediction
West Coast vs Melbourne Predictions Game 6 of Round 8…
St Kilda vs Brisbane Prediction
St Kilda Saints vs Brisbane Lions Predictions
Game 4 of Round 7 of the 2026 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees St Kilda vs Brisbane on April 26 at Marvel Stadium on Saturday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel.
Saturday, April 26, 2026
1:20 pm AEDT @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Final Score Prediction
Saints84 : 93
Lions 
Win Percentages
St Kilda 46.05%
Brisbane 53.95%
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the St Kilda Saints set at $2.75, and $1.45 for the Brisbane Lions, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Opportunity Bet
Bookies have Brisbane as clear favourites, handing them a 65.47% chance of winning. But our model has things a lot closer, giving the Lions just a slight edge at 53.95%.
That creates some solid value on the Saints. The market only gives them a 34.53% chance, but we rate them much higher at 46.05%. That’s a decent gap, and one worth noting.
Based on our data, the Saints should be priced closer to $2.17, but they’re currently sitting at $2.75 with Unibet. That’s great value if you’re backing them to show up strong.
Power Rankings Breakdown
This one’s actually a dead heat in overall rank score, both teams sitting at 7.33, but they get there in very different ways:
- Overall Power Ranking: Lions 7th vs Saints 12th
- Score Rank: Lions 5th vs Saints 9th
- Balanced Power Score: Saints 2nd vs Lions 18th (huge gap in balance!)
- Points For Rank: Lions 3rd vs Saints 4th
- Points Against Rank: Both teams rank 10th
- Win % Rank: Lions 1st vs Saints 7th
- Total Power Rank Score: 7.33 each
What to do?
The Lions might look stronger on recent wins and scoring, but St Kilda are much more balanced overall. Their power score suggests they’re far more competitive than the odds imply.
The Lions deserve to be favourites, but not by this much. The Saints are far better balanced, and the gap between bookmaker odds and actual probability gives us clear value. At $2.75, St Kilda are a strong underdog play with upside.
Take St Kilda +14.5, in scoring these two are pretty well stacked and the Total power rank score is dead even.
Winning Margin Bet:
Brisbane 1-39 @ $2.02 with
Unibet
OVER/UNDER Bet:
UNDER 182.5 @ $1.90 with
Unibet
Head-to-Head Stats
- Average Points For Per Match: Brisbane by 1.2
- Average Points Against Per Match: Brisbane by 13
- Power Rank: Brisbane by 3
- Average Winning Margin: Brisbane by 1913
- SoS Adjusted Points For: St Kilda by 4
- Win Percentage: Brisbane by 33%
- Average Opponent Rank: Brisbane by 1
- Average Opponent Win Percentage: Brisbane by 14%
- Average Opponent Points For: Brisbane by 0
- Highest Score For: St Kilda by 17
- Highest Score Against: Brisbane by 30
- Highest Total Match Score: Brisbane by 8
- Lowest Total Match Score: Brisbane by 30
- Adjusted Points For: St Kilda by 4
- Adjusted Points Against: Brisbane by 13
- True Power Score (Weighted): Brisbane by 3.2
- OVER/UNDER Tempo: 180.8
- Game Style Prediction: Balanced Matchup
Related:
AFL Fixture
Check the AFL fixture for upcoming AFL matches this season.
AFL Injury List
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