West Coast vs Melbourne Prediction

The Betting Edge

The bookies have Melbourne as clear favourites at 69.35%, but our numbers suggest this one could be much closer, with Melbourne only winning 56.81% of the time based on the underlying data.

At the odds of $3.10 for the Eagles, there’s actually a fair bit of value there if you’re feeling brave enough to back an upset. It’s not the safest bet, but there’s definitely a live chance West Coast could sneak home if Melbourne don’t bring their A-game.

Power Rankings Breakdown

Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:

• Predicted Final Score: West Coast 65 – 72 Melbourne
• Average Points For: West Coast 63.14, Melbourne 70.71 (Demons by 7.57 points)
• Average Points Against: West Coast 112.86, Melbourne 94.71 (Demons by 18.15 points)
• Win Percentage: West Coast 0.00%, Melbourne 28.57% (Demons by 28.57%)
• Adjusted Points For: West Coast 71.30, Melbourne 72.95 (Demons by 1.65 points)
• Adjusted Points Against: West Coast 100.34, Melbourne 88.26 (Demons by 12.08 points)
• Over/Under Tempo: 166.4 (Should be a slower, scrappy game)
• Game Style Prediction: Struggler Duel

What to do?

Neither team is flying this year, Melbourne sit 15th on the power rankings, while the Eagles are dead last at 18th. That said, Melbourne still hold a decent edge in the True Power Score too (14.80 vs 18.00).

Both sides have struggled, but the Demons have been marginally better against slightly tougher opposition (average opponent rank 11.05 vs West Coast’s 14.00) and have at least been competitive in patches.

West Coast’s backline has been a real sore point, leaking big scores nearly every week, and that could easily be the difference here even if Melbourne aren’t exactly an attacking powerhouse either.

All up, Melbourne should get it done, but don’t be shocked if the Eagles make a proper scrap of it. At $3.10, West Coast offer a bit of roughie value if you’re feeling adventurous!

Take the Eagles at +16.5, they might be the worst team of the season, but Melbourne’s backline isn’t that much better making this game a high chance of being close.

Head-to-Head Stats

• Average Points For Per Match: West Coast: 63.14, Melbourne: 70.71 – (Melbourne by 7.57 points)
• Average Points Against Per Match: West Coast: 112.86, Melbourne: 94.71 – (Melbourne by 18.15 points)
• Power Rank: West Coast: 18, Melbourne: 15 – (Melbourne by 3)
• Average Winning Margin: West Coast: 0.00, Melbourne: 15.00 – (Melbourne by 15 points)
• SoS Adjusted Points For: West Coast: 71.30, Melbourne: 72.95 – (Melbourne by 1.65 points)
• Win Percentage: West Coast: 0.00%, Melbourne: 28.57% – (Melbourne by 28.57%)
• Average Opponent Rank: West Coast: 14.00, Melbourne: 11.05 – (Melbourne by 2.95 ranks)
• Average Opponent Win %: West Coast: 31.75%, Melbourne: 41.90% – (Melbourne by 10.15%)
• Average Opponent Points For: West Coast: 78.28, Melbourne: 78.88 – (West Coast by 0.6 points)
• Highest Score For: West Coast: 75.00, Melbourne: 107.00 – (Melbourne by 32 points)
• Highest Score Against: West Coast: 136.00, Melbourne: 125.00 – (Melbourne by 11 points)
• Highest Total Match Score: West Coast: 198.00, Melbourne: 204.00 – (Melbourne by 6 points)
• Lowest Total Match Score: West Coast: 152.00, Melbourne: 131.00 – (Melbourne by 21 points)
• Adjusted Points For: West Coast: 71.30, Melbourne: 72.95 – (Melbourne by 1.65 points)
• Adjusted Points Against: West Coast: 100.34, Melbourne: 88.26 – (Melbourne by 12.08 points)
• True Power Score (Weighted): West Coast: 18.00, Melbourne: 14.80 – (Melbourne by 3.2 points)
• OVER/UNDER Tempo: 166.4
• Game Style Prediction: Struggler Duel