GWS vs North Melbourne Prediction – Round 7 2026
AFL Round 7 • 2026 Model Predicted – Final Score…
Fremantle vs Carlton Prediction – Round 7 2026
AFL Round 7 • 2026
Model Predicted – Final Score
Fremantle by 35 points
Model Predicted Margin
Fremantle by 35
Current Market
Fremantle -36.5
1.5 pts tighter
Best BetHEAD TO HEAD
Fremantle Dockers H2H @ $1.13
Our model has Freo by 35 – one and a half points inside the market line makes Carlton with the points the value bet.
Value BetLINE BETTING
Carlton Blues +36.5 @ $1.91
Odds correct at time of posting
Dockers vs Blues Prediction: Perth Fortress Holds
Fremantle beat Carlton by 27 at home last year and that was a worse version of this Dockers outfit. They’re 5-1, sitting second on the ladder, and haven’t lost at Optus all season.
The edge here is what Freo do with the ball once it’s inside 50. They’re marking inside 50 at nearly 50% more than Carlton – that’s not a stat gap, that’s a structural mismatch. Carlton can’t defend the air, and Optus Stadium’s wide open spaces only amplify that problem.
Carlton’s clearance work is actually decent – marginally better than Freo’s. If they can keep this at ground level and turn it into a stoppage-heavy arm wrestle, they stay in touch longer than the market expects.
But that’s the value play. Our model has Freo by 35. The books have set the line at 36.5. Carlton’s clearance edge gives them just enough to stay within the number, even if they never seriously threaten to win. Take the points.
Dockers vs Blues Tip
Fremantle win by 35 at Optus Stadium – they’re the second-best side in the comp hosting the second-worst, and the line sits a point and a half wider than it should.
Dockers vs Blues Key Stats
MARKS INSIDE 50
FRE12
CARL8
Freo’s aerial dominance inside 50 is the scoring engine Carlton can’t match – supports the blowout potential that keeps this close to the line.
HIT-OUTS
FRE44
CARL35
Freo’s ruck advantage feeds their inside 50 entries, but Carlton’s clearance numbers suggest they’re surviving despite losing the tap.
INSIDE 50S
FRE53
CARL50
Freo generate more entries and convert them more efficiently – the gap compounds across four quarters.
Dockers vs Blues Form Guide
Fremantle Dockers
WWWWW
- W 97-41 vs West Coast Eagles
- W 45-39 vs Collingwood
- W 78-76 vs Adelaide Crows
- W 103-43 vs Richmond
- W 118-70 vs Melbourne
Carlton Blues
LLLLW
- L 83-88 vs Collingwood
- L 86-114 vs Adelaide Crows
- L 86-96 vs North Melbourne
- L 77-100 vs Melbourne
- W 75-71 vs Richmond
Final Verdict
Carlton are bad but they’re not 37 points bad. The plus-side of the line is the smarter play here.
LOCK IT IN: Carlton +36.5 @ $1.91
Key Facts
| Match | Fremantle Dockers vs Carlton Blues |
| Date | Saturday, April 25 |
| Venue | Optus Stadium |
| Our Tip | Carlton +36.5 @ $1.91 |
| Predicted Score | Fremantle Dockers 104 – Carlton Blues 69 |
Fremantle Dockers vs Carlton Blues FAQs
Who will win Fremantle Dockers vs Carlton Blues?
Fremantle are heavy favourites at $1.13 and our model agrees, predicting a 35-point win at Optus Stadium. The Dockers are 5-1 and dominant at home, while Carlton have won just once from six games this season.
What are the best bets for Fremantle vs Carlton Round 7?
Carlton +36.5 at $1.91 is the value play. Our model has Fremantle winning by 35, which sits inside the 36.5-point line. Carlton’s clearance work is competitive enough to keep the margin honest even in a loss.
What is the predicted score for Fremantle vs Carlton?
Our model predicts Fremantle 104 to Carlton 69, a 35-point margin. That’s close to but slightly under the market line of 36.5, making the Carlton points side the sharper bet.
