GWS vs North Melbourne Prediction – Round 7 2026
AFL Round 7 • 2026 Model Predicted – Final Score…
Brisbane vs Adelaide Prediction – Round 7 2026
AFL Round 7 • 2026
Model Predicted – Final Score
BL
$1.37
Sunday, April 26
102 : 87
Gabba
ADEL
$3.12
Brisbane Lions by 15 points
Model Predicted Margin
Brisbane Lions by 15
Current Market
Brisbane Lions -19.5
4.5 pts tighter
Best BetHEAD TO HEAD
Brisbane Lions H2H @ $1.37
Our model has Brisbane by 15, making the 19.5-point line generous for the Crows.
Value BetLINE BETTING
Adelaide Crows +19.5 @ $1.89
Odds correct at time of posting
Lions vs Crows Prediction: Adelaide’s Line Gift at the Gabba | AFL Round 7
Adelaide came from behind to beat Brisbane by five in Round 13 last year, kicking five unanswered final-quarter goals. The Crows know how to stay in this fight.
Brisbane are the better side at home – their clearance dominance and marking superiority inside 50 make them hard to beat at the Gabba. But the books have priced them like they’re going to run away with it. They won’t. Adelaide’s contested ball is the best in the comp and that keeps the margin honest.
The Lions’ form is patchy. Belted by Sydney by 44, edged by Melbourne by two. They can look elite one week and ordinary the next. Adelaide have beaten Carlton by 28 and pushed Fremantle to two points at home.
The risk is Brisbane clicking. When they’re on at the Gabba they can bury teams through the corridor and their uncontested game is devastating. If the Crows can’t slow the transition, 20 points disappears fast.
But our model says 15. The market says 19.5. That’s four and a half points of daylight on a team that’s proven they can hang around in this fixture. Take the points.
Lions vs Crows Tip
Brisbane win at the Gabba but Adelaide’s 19.5-point head start is more than enough to cover when our model only has the Lions by 15.
Lions vs Crows Key Stats
CONTESTED POSSESSIONS
BL130
ADEL138
Adelaide win the contested ball – the key to staying within the margin at the Gabba.
MARKS
BL115
ADEL87
Brisbane’s marking dominance drives their scoring but Adelaide’s pressure limits clean entries.
CLEARANCES
BL42
ADEL37
Brisbane’s clearance edge fuels their transition game – the main threat to Adelaide covering.
Lions vs Crows Form Guide
Brisbane Lions
LWWWL
- L 102-104 vs Melbourne
- W 92-66 vs North Melbourne
- W 119-65 vs Collingwood
- W 113-80 vs St Kilda
- L 60-104 vs Sydney Swans
Adelaide Crows
WWLLL
- W 103-102 vs St Kilda
- W 114-86 vs Carlton
- L 76-78 vs Fremantle
- L 60-68 vs Geelong Cats
- L 88-94 vs Western Bulldogs
Final Verdict
Adelaide don’t need to win this – they just need to stay within 19 points. Their contested game gives them every chance of doing exactly that.
LOCK IT IN: Adelaide Crows +19.5 @ $1.89
Key Facts
| Match | Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows |
| Date | Sunday, April 26 |
| Venue | Gabba |
| Our Tip | Adelaide Crows +19.5 @ $1.89 |
| Predicted Score | Brisbane Lions 102 – Adelaide Crows 87 |
Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows FAQs
Who will win Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows?
Our model predicts Brisbane Lions to win by 15 points at the Gabba. Brisbane’s clearance and marking advantages at home make them deserved favourites, but Adelaide’s contested ball keeps the margin tight.
What are the best bets for Brisbane vs Adelaide Round 7?
Adelaide Crows +19.5 at $1.89 is the value play. Our model has Brisbane winning by 15, giving 4.5 points of value on the line. Adelaide have proven they can stay competitive in this fixture.
What is the predicted score for Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows?
Our model predicts Brisbane Lions 102 to Adelaide Crows 87, a 15-point margin. Brisbane’s home advantage and clearance dominance drive the result, but the Crows’ contested possession edge keeps it within three goals.
