AFL Betting Tips Round 5

Ben H / 13 April 2023

AFL Round 5 Tips

5Adelaide Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
5Fremantle Adelaide Crows Icon Adelaide 91 56.28% 118
5Richmond Carlton Blues Icon Carlton 85 42.62% 62
5Brisbane Lions
5Essendon Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
5Port Adelaide Fremantle Dockers Icon Fremantle 82 56.80% 100
5Geelong Gold Coast Suns Icon Gold Coast 76 42.21% 90
5GW Sydney
5Collingwood Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
Richmond Tigers Icon Richmond 83 44.83% 78
Sydney Swans Icon Sydney 88 54.07% 122
Column to hide
after pasting Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
game keys above Brisbane Lions Icon Brisbane Lions 99 70.72% 152
North Melbourne Icon Kangaroos 79 28.25% 77
Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
Essendon Bombers Icon Essendon 79 29.54% 104
Melbourne Demons Icon Melbourne 100 69.45% 77
Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
Port Adelaide Power Icon Port Adelaide 93 70.99% 70
Western Bulldogs Icon Western Bulldogs 73 28.13% 56
Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
Geelong Cats Icon Geelong 108 84.69% 136
West Coast Eagles Icon West Coast 71 14.66% 89
Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
GWS Giants Icon GW Sydney 87 56.54% 77
Hawthorn Hawks Icon Hawthorn 81 42.44% 75
Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
Collingwood Magpies Icon Collingwood 85 61.58% 70
St. Kilda Saints Icon St Kilda 74 37.27% 64


Adelaide vs Carlton

Thursday, April 13, 2023

7:40 PM @ Adelaide Oval

Prepare for a thrilling encounter when Adelaide takes on Carlton at Adelaide Oval in the AFL’s first Gather Round. Both clubs have been playing well recently, but Adelaide’s recent home performances have been excellent. Adelaide has won against Port Adelaide and Fremantle in the last two weeks, scoring over 110 points each time, led by Jordan Dawson, who dominated against Fremantle with 27 disposals at 96.3% efficiency. Carlton also played well on Good Friday, but Adelaide has the home field edge and a recent victory over the Blues at their home stadium.

Carlton has lost all six of its prior matches at Adelaide Oval, and Adelaide has covered the line in all four of its night encounters against Carlton. Furthermore, the total match points line has been OVER in Adelaide’s last seven games. Taylor Walker has scored two or more goals in each of Adelaide’s last seven home games, while Darcy Fogarty and Izak Rankine have scored two or more goals in six and five appearances, respectively. These numbers suggest a high-scoring game.

In comparison, Charlie Curnow has scored three or more goals in three of Carlton’s last four games, while Patrick Cripps has had 35 or more disposals in four of Carlton’s last five games against Adelaide. Rory Laird has had 32+ disposals in each of Adelaide’s previous three games against Carlton, while Jordan Dawson has had 25+ disposals in all four of Adelaide’s home games.

Overall, Adelaide should defeat Carlton by a score of 91-85. Taylor Walker is expected to score the first goal, and Adelaide will have the lead over Carlton due to their home field advantage and previous form at Adelaide Oval.

Betting Tip: Crows

Suggested Bet: Adelaide WINNING MARGIN 1-39


Fremantle vs Gold Coast

Friday, April 14, 2023

5:10 PM @ Norwood Oval

In their upcoming AFL encounter at Norwood Oval, Fremantle will attempt to get back on track against Gold Coast. Despite a sluggish start to the season, Fremantle has covered the line in nine of their previous ten matches in April and should be able to continue this trend against Gold Coast.

Michael Walters has kicked 2+ goals in six of his past seven outings, while Andrew Brayshaw has recorded 25+ disposals in each of the Dockers’ last seven games. Caleb Serong has also been impressive and is expected to dominate again against the Gold Coast.

While the Gold Coast defeated Fremantle last season, they have struggled on the road, losing five of their last six games.

The final score is expected to be 82-76 in Fremantle’s favour. Prepare for a thrilling and tightly contested encounter!

Betting Tip: Dockers

Suggested Bet: Fremantle HEAD-to-HEAD


Richmond vs Sydney

Friday, April 14, 2023

8:10 PM @ Adelaide Oval

Get ready for a Friday night blockbuster at the Adelaide Oval as the Sydney Swans take on the Richmond Tigers. With both teams coming off tough losses, it’s anyone’s game. However, Sydney has been in great form, winning seven of their last eight night matches and they have an excellent record against Richmond.

Plus, with the Tigers missing key players due to injury, the Swans have a clear advantage. Keep an eye on Jake Lloyd, who has been dominant against Richmond in the past, and Logan McDonald, who has kicked multiple goals in each of Sydney’s last three matches as a favorite.

With these players firing, the Swans should win with a scoreline of 88-83.

Betting Tip: Swans

Suggested Bet: Swans WINNING MARGIN 1-39


Brisbane vs North Melbourne

Saturday, April 15, 2023

1:10 PM @ Adelaide Hills

Brisbane is expected to annihilate North Melbourne in their upcoming AFL encounter this Saturday. The Lions have a lot to show after losing their first two interstate games. However, North Melbourne has struggled against higher-ranked clubs, losing 20 of their last 21 games. Brisbane is in better shape than their opponents after defeating Collingwood.

Lincoln McCarthy, who guided Brisbane to a 156-48 victory over the Kangaroos in their most recent meeting, is expected to maintain his strong form.

As underdogs, the Lions have covered the line in seven of their past eight games, while nine of their last ten day games have gone over the total match points line.

The final score is expected to be 99-79 in favour of Brisbane. So, Kangaroo lovers, prepare for a rough game as the Lions display their claws!

Betting Tip: Lions

Suggested Bet: Brisbane WINNING MARGIN 1-39


Essendon vs Melbourne

Saturday, April 15, 2023

4:10 PM @ Adelaide Oval

Melbourne should easily defeat Essendon at the Adelaide Oval with a score of 100-79.

Melbourne has a proven track record of interstate victory, having covered the line in seven of its last eight games at the Adelaide Oval. In contrast, Essendon has struggled to finish games in recent weeks. Although Jake Stringer’s performance in their last game was notable, it will not be enough to overcome Melbourne’s domination.

With Clayton Oliver’s past performances, there’s no doubt he’ll play a key role in Melbourne’s victory. Nevertheless, Essendon’s recent form against Melbourne will not be enough to turn the game around.

Melbourne’s scoring potential is higher because of players like Bayley Fritsch and Charlie Spargo. Because Melbourne tends to score a lot, the game should go over the total points line. In summary, Melbourne is the clear favourite to win this match due to their overall record, greater form, and stronger team.

Melbourne should easily defeat Essendon at the Adelaide Oval with a score of 100-79.

Betting Tip: Demons

Suggested Bet: Melbourne HEAD-to-HEAD


Port Adelaide vs Bulldogs

Saturday, April 15, 2023

7:50 PM @ Adelaide Oval

The Port Adelaide Raiders are set to face the Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval. While the Bulldogs have had some impressive wins recently, including triumphs over Brisbane and Richmond, Port Adelaide has the home-field advantage as well as a win against the Bulldogs last season.

In recent games, Jack Macrae has been a standout for the Bulldogs, while Port Adelaide’s Charlie Dixon has been consistently striking goals. Ollie Wines has been a strong force on the field, amassing a large number of disposals, and Connor Rozee has been a consistent goal scorer.

Port Adelaide should be expected to put up a big score, ending the game with a score of 93-73, with eight of their last nine matches going over the total match points line. The Western Bulldogs will put up a hard fight, but Port Adelaide will win in the end.

Betting Tip: Power

Suggested Bet: Half-time / Full time Double: Western Bulldogs / Port Adelaide


Geelong vs West Coast

Sunday, April 16, 2023

1:10 PM @ Adelaide Oval

It’s time for a thrilling game between Geelong and West Coast, and I’m betting on Geelong. The Cats have been in great form recently, as seen by their convincing win over Hawthorn, in which they dominated the game with a scorching third quarter. Geelong is a force to be reckoned with, with Jeremy Cameron kicking seven goals from 22 disposals and Mitch Duncan racking up 31 disposals and 14 marks.

West Coast, on the other side, has been suffering, having lost 11 of its last 12 games. Tim Kelly’s outstanding performance with 36 disposals, eight score involvements, and 703 yards gained was unable to save a loss versus Melbourne.

Additionally, Geelong defeated West Coast twice last season, including a convincing 131-46 victory in Week 23. The Cats have also won five of their last six games versus the Eagles, giving them a substantial lead.

Given Geelong’s strong track record versus West Coast, I predict a 108-71 victory. Jeremy Cameron has kicked 4+ goals in five of his previous seven games against opponents ranked in the bottom four, while Tom Hawkins has kicked 2+ goals in each of his last ten appearances against West Coast. These two players could be enough to propel Geelong to victory.

While West Coast has numerous excellent players, like Andrew Gaff, Isaac Smith, Oscar Allen, Tim Kelly, Patrick Dangerfield, and Elliot Yeo, they may not be enough to overcome Geelong’s dominance.

Finally, Geelong should win this match by a comfortable score of 108-71. Let’s see whether they can keep their winning streak going and get another win over West Coast.

Betting Tip: Cats

Suggested Bet: Cats WINNING MARGIN 40+


GWS Giants vs Hawthorn

Sunday, April 16, 2023

3:20 PM @ Norwood Oval

I’m picking the GWS Giants to beat Hawthorn in this Sunday’s match. Despite the fact that both teams have a 1-3 record this season, the Giants have been significantly more competitive in their defeats. Hawthorn, on the other hand, was defeated by Geelong by 82 points in their most recent encounter.

GWS will be trying to rebound from last weekend’s devastating loss to Essendon. Tom Green had 34 disposals, and I expect him to have another strong game. The Giants have also demonstrated their ability to defeat Hawthorn, having won the match last year.

GWS has some distinct benefits in terms of player matchups. Josh Kelly has had 25+ disposals in all seven of his previous games against Hawthorn, and Lachie Whitfield has had 25+ disposals in eight of his last nine games against them. Jesse Hogan has scored two or more goals in six of GWS’s previous seven games, and Toby Greene has scored first in three of GWS’s last four games against lower-ranked opponents. Callan Ward has also had 20 or more disposals in each of his last nine games against Hawthorn, and Stephen Coniglio has had 31 or more disposals in four of GWS’s last five games as a favourite.

Despite having some talented players such as James Sicily and Fergus Greene, Hawthorn has struggled to cover the line against bottom-four clubs, losing five of their previous six games. Thirteen of their last 17 road games have gone Above the total match points line, indicating a defensive problem.

Based on the analytics and previous form, I anticipate an 87-81 victory for the GWS Giants. It should be a close game, but I believe GWS has more talent across the board and should be able to beat Hawthorn.

Betting Tip: Giants

Suggested Bet: GWS WINNING MARGIN 1-39


Collingwood vs St Kilda

Sunday, April 16, 2023

4:50 PM @ Adelaide Oval

Get ready, footy for this Sunday’s game between Collingwood and St Kilda will be a nail-biter! Both teams have had strong beginnings to the 2023 season, with Collingwood just losing their first game last week and St Kilda still undefeated. But, I have to give Collingwood the edge in this encounter. They have a strong record against higher-ranked opponents and have won five of their previous six games at the Adelaide Oval.

In terms of player performance, Collingwood’s Nick Daicos has had 32+ disposals in each of their last four games. Meanwhile, Brody Mihocek has scored two or more goals in each of the last four games against St Kilda. Jack Higgins has been outstanding for St Kilda, scoring four or more goals in his last two games. Collingwood, on the other hand, has the depth to shut him down.

Collingwood has covered the line in each of their previous eight encounters against higher-ranked opponents, and they are currently 1.45 favourites to win. St Kilda’s last nine meetings at the Adelaide Oval have typically gone under the total match points line, therefore I’m anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair, with Collingwood winning 85-74.

To summarise, while both teams have been excellent this season, I believe Collingwood’s track record against higher-ranked opponents, as well as their recent success at the Adelaide Oval, will give them the lead over St Kilda. Collingwood will win a hard-fought victory with a final score of 85-74, led by Nick Daicos.

Betting Tip: Magpies

Suggested Bet: Collingwood HEAD-to-HEAD


This week’s AFL Multi

  • Adelaide
  • Sydney
  • Port Adelaide
  • GWS Giants
  • Collingwood

Take Bet: $9.93 with  Ladbrokes

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Ben H
Ben Harris is the Communications Manager for KRUZEY, an AFL expert, and writer. He has one daughter that he loves dearly and four children's books... [Read full bio]

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