West Coast vs Melbourne Prediction
West Coast vs Melbourne Predictions Game 6 of Round 8…
Adelaide vs Carlton Predictions & Tips – Round 5 2026
AFL Round 5 • 2026
Model Predicted – Final Score
Adelaide Crows by 24 points
Model Predicted Margin
Adelaide Crows by 24
Current Market
Adelaide Crows -34.5
10.5 pts tighter
Best BetLINE BETTING
Best Bet: Carlton Blues +34.5 @ $1.90
Our model has this at 24 points – that’s over ten points of value on the line.
Odds correct at time of posting
Adelaide win but the books have gone too far
Adelaide have belted Carlton at home recently – 60 points last time, 56 the time before that. So the books have loaded up on history. Fair enough. But this isn’t the same gap.
Both sides are 1-3 and scrapping. Our model has Adelaide winning by 24 – a comfortable four-goal victory. The market’s asking you to believe it’ll be closer to six goals. That’s ten and a half points of daylight between our number and theirs. Carlton are sloppy and they copped a hiding from Sydney, but they’ve been competitive in three of four games this year.
The thing that keeps Adelaide honest is their forward entry conversion. They’re getting inside 50 plenty, but they’re wasting nearly half their entries. That’s not a team about to blow someone away by 35.
The risk is Adelaide’s ruck dominance and tackle pressure turning this into a suffocation job. If Carlton can’t get clean ball out of the middle, the margin could stretch late.
But 34.5 is a big number for two teams sitting 13th and 15th. Take the points.
Kruzey’s Tip
Adelaide win by around four goals, but Carlton cover the 34.5-point line comfortably – the market’s overcorrecting for Adelaide Oval.
Key Stats Behind the Tip
MARKS INSIDE 50
ADE11
CAR8
Adelaide’s aerial threat is real but it hasn’t translated to blowout scorelines this season – supports the under on the line.
TACKLES
ADE63
CAR51
Adelaide’s defensive pressure is the biggest threat to Carlton covering – they can lock teams in and force turnovers.
HIT-OUTS
ADE44
CAR35
Adelaide’s ruck advantage gives them first use, but Carlton’s stoppage clearance work offsets the damage at the coalface.
Form Guide
Adelaide Crows
LLLW
- L 76-78 vs Fremantle
- L 60-68 vs Geelong Cats
- L 88-94 vs Western Bulldogs
- W 93-79 vs Collingwood
Carlton Blues
LLWL
- L 86-96 vs North Melbourne
- L 77-100 vs Melbourne
- W 75-71 vs Richmond
- L 69-132 vs Sydney Swans
Final Verdict
Carlton are no good, but they don’t need to be good here. They just need to keep it under five goals, and the model says they will.
Preferred Bookmaker
LOCK IT IN: Carlton Blues +34.5 @ $1.90
18+. Gamble responsibly.
