AFL Betting Tips Round 6
Nine games across four days – and the model has…
Sydney vs Adelaide Prediction
Game 5 of Round 12 of the 2026 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on May 31 sees Sydney vs Adelaide at the SCG on Saturday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel.
Sydney Swans vs Adelaide Crows Predictions
Saturday, May 31, 2026
7:35 pm AEDT @ the SCG, Sydney
Final Score Prediction
76 : 91
Win Percentages
Sydney 36.92%
Adelaide 63.08%
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Sydney Swans set at $2.20, and $1.64 for the Adelaide Crows, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
The Betting Edge
The bookies have Adelaide as the favourites here, with odds of $1.64 giving them a 57.29% implied chance of getting the win. Our prediction backs them in even stronger, with the Crows rated at 63.08%, a fair bit more confident than the market.
Sydney are out at $2.20, which implies a 42.71% chance. But our numbers don’t quite agree, giving the Swans just a 36.92% shot at pulling off the win.
That difference points to value on Adelaide. If our model’s on the money, their true odds should be closer to $1.59, so the $1.640 price tag offers a tidy little edge.
In a game where the market might be slightly underestimating the Crows, Adelaide shapes up as the value play, especially if they bring their recent form to the table.
Power Rankings Breakdown
Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:
Sydney vs Adelaide Head-to-Head Stats
- Average Points For Per Match: Adelaide by 21
- Average Points Against Per Match: Adelaide by 9
- Power Rank: Adelaide by 13
- Average Winning Margin: Adelaide by 19.64
- SoS Adjusted Points For: Adelaide by 20
- Win Percentage: Adelaide by 27%
- Average Opponent Rank: Adelaide by 2
- Average Opponent Win %: Sydney by 5%
- Average Opponent Points For: Sydney by 10
- Highest Score For: Adelaide by 44
- Highest Score Against: Adelaide by 12
- Highest Total Match Score: Adelaide by 52
- Lowest Total Match Score: Adelaide by 47
- Adjusted Points For: Adelaide by 20
- Adjusted Points Against: Sydney by 2
- True Power Score (Weighted): Adelaide by 9.8
- OVER/UNDER Tempo: 172.3
- Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout – Low Scoring
- Average Opposition Ladder Rank: Sydney: 6, Adelaide: 9 – (Sydney by 3)
- Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Sydney: 6.17, Adelaide: 12.00 – (Sydney by 5.83)
Over/Under Tempo: High tempo expected. Look for aggressive ball movement and open play as both sides push to assert scoreboard pressure.
Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout – Low Scoring. Adelaide’s offensive firepower and scoring consistency could overwhelm Sydney unless the Swans can disrupt momentum early.
What to do?
Best bet is to take the Adelaide -6.5 this game.
As for multis, take the Adelaide -6.5, UNDER 175.5, Adelaide 1-39 for $4.60 with Unibet as shown below.
Sydney vs Adelaide Betting Tips
Related:
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AFL Injury List
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