AFL Betting Tips Round 4

Ben H / 6 April 2023

AFL Round 4 Tips

4Brisbane Lions Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
4Kangaroos Brisbane Lions Icon Brisbane Lions 79 42.30% 116
4Adelaide Collingwood Magpies Icon Collingwood 86 56.60% 83
4St Kilda Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
4Sydney North Melbourne Icon Kangaroos 63 15.57% 84
4Essendon Carlton Blues Icon Carlton 98 83.75% 107
4West Coast
4Geelong Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
Adelaide Crows Icon Adelaide 86 60.59% 111
Fremantle Dockers Icon Fremantle 77 38.14% 72
Column to hide
after pasting Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
game keys above Richmond Tigers Icon Richmond 86 66.76% 84
Western Bulldogs Icon Western Bulldogs 71 32.04% 89
Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
St. Kilda Saints Icon St Kilda 85 70.92% 113
Gold Coast Suns Icon Gold Coast 67 28.01% 60
Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
Sydney Swans Icon Sydney 102 74.10% 64
Port Adelaide Power Icon Port Adelaide 79 25.19% 66
Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
Essendon Bombers Icon Essendon 99 67.56% 88
GWS Giants Icon GW Sydney 81 31.55% 75
Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
West Coast Eagles Icon West Coast 75 23.28% 63
Melbourne Demons Icon Melbourne 102 75.95% 126
Image Team Predicted Score Win Chance Actual Score
Geelong Cats Icon Geelong 97 78.87% 127
Hawthorn Hawks Icon Hawthorn 68 20.27% 45


Brisbane vs Collingwood

Thursday, April 6, 2023

7:20 PM @ MCG

Brisbane and Collingwood are poised to square off at the Gabba on Thursday night. While Brisbane has suffered some painful road losses recently, their home record speaks for itself, with the team winning their previous eight games at the Gabba following a loss. Collingwood, on the other hand, has been dominant in the early innings, with victories over Geelong, Port Adelaide, and Richmond. However, their record at the Gabba isn’t as impressive, with four of their last five games failing to cover the spread.

When it comes to the players, Brisbane’s Lachie Neale has been a star, recording 27+ disposals in 15 of their previous 16 home games, while Collingwood’s Joe Daniher has been a thorn in their side, kicking 3+ goals in each of his last four appearances against them. Yet it’s difficult to overlook Jack Crisp’s record versus Brisbane at the Gabba, where he has recorded 27+ disposals in each of Collingwood’s last four games.

Taking everything into account, I predict that Collingwood will win with a final score of 86-79. While Brisbane has an impressive home record, Collingwood’s recent form is difficult to ignore, and with players like Jamie Elliott and Nick Daicos stepping up, they have the firepower to win a close contest.

Betting Tip: Magpies

Suggested Bet: Magpies WINNING MARGIN 1-39


North Melbourne vs Carlton

Friday, April 7, 2023

7:40 PM @ MCG

The Blues are unquestionably the favourites in their encounter versus the Roos. North Melbourne has lost 19 of its previous 20 games against higher-ranked opponents, while Carlton has covered the line in all five of its games.

The Roos will be without important player Luke Davies-Uniacke, which will be devastating to their hopes.  Carlton is coming off an undefeated start to the season, with key players like Patrick Cripps and Sam Docherty in fine form. Jaidyn Stephenson has an excellent record against Carlton, and Charlie Curnow has been a scoring machine at Marvel Stadium.

I anticipate the Blues will win with a final score of 98-63. Carlton’s good first-half record at Marvel Stadium should allow them to establish an early advantage and hold it throughout the game. If you’re a fan of the Blues, you might want to watch this one; if you are a fan of the Kangaroos, you might want to find something else to do this Good Friday!

Betting Tip: Carlton

Suggested Bet: Blues LINE -25.5


Adelaide vs Fremantle

Saturday, April 8, 2023

1:45 PM @ Marvel Stadium

Adelaide should win in what is expected to be a competitive contest against Fremantle.  Adelaide’s impressive win over cross-town rival Port Adelaide last Saturday, led by Rankine and Thilthorpe in front of goal, shown that they have what it takes to win.

Fremantle’s current track record of losing the first quarter in each of their past seven games may be their undoing. Adelaide’s Ben Keays, who has 21+ disposals in 22 of their previous 23 home games, will also be a vital player to watch.

Fremantle’s Michael Walters and Michael Frederick will be dangerous, but Adelaide’s Jordan Dawson, who has 25+ disposals in each of their previous three home games, will have a significant influence.

I predict a final score of Adelaide 86-77 Fremantle.

Betting Tip: Crows

Suggested Bet: Crows WINNING MARGIN 1-39


Richmond vs Western Bulldogs

Saturday, April 8, 2023

4:35 PM @ Adelaide Oval

The matchup between the Richmond Tigers and the Western Bulldogs this weekend promises to be interesting.

Richmond has the firepower to win with Tom Lynch in great form, having kicked three or more goals in each of the Tigers’ last six games as favourites, and Dustin Martin dominating against the Bulldogs in his last six appearances.

Despite their recent strong win over the Lions, the Bulldogs will struggle to match the Tigers’ veteran midfield, which includes Kamdyn McIntosh, who has had 15+ disposals in each of Richmond’s previous six home games.

With the underdog winning the last four meetings between these two teams, the Bulldogs may appear to have a shot, but they’ll struggle to get through Richmond’s defence, which is led by Oskar Baker’s remarkable efforts. Prepare for an exciting battle at the MCG, but the Tigers will roar to victory.

While both teams have had a difficult start to the season, the Tigers will win by a score of 86-71.

Betting Tip: Tigers

Suggested Bet: Tigers HEAD-TO-HEAD


St Kilda vs Gold Coast

Saturday, April 8, 2023

7:25 PM @ MCG

The Saints are blazing! They’re undefeated thus far and eager to take on the Gold Coast Suns and extend their winning streak. St Kilda is the obvious favourite to win, having won their last seven meetings against the Suns.

Their recent win over Essendon, in which Butler and Higgins each scored four goals, demonstrates that they have a formidable attacking force. Meanwhile, Gold Coast’s win over Geelong was outstanding, but they won’t be able to maintain that level of play against St Kilda’s powerful defence.

The Suns’ standout players have been Touk Miller and Levi Casboult, but St Kilda’s Jack Sinclair and Brad Crouch have also been consistently impressive.

It’s time for the Suns to shine somewhere else, the Saints will come through with another victory this week!

St Kilda will most likely win by roughly 18 points, with a final score of 85-67.

Betting Tip: Saints

Suggested Bet: Saints WINNING MARGIN 1-39


Sydney vs Port Adelaide

Saturday, April 8, 2023

8:00 PM @ Heritage Bank Stadium

Get ready, footy fans, for the Swans will take on the Power at the SCG on Saturday night!

Despite a disappointing loss last week, Sydney has won its past nine games at the SCG, and with Lance Franklin and Tom Papley leading the charge up front, the Power defence will struggle to keep up.

Furthermore, Callum Mills and Isaac Heeney will dominate the midfield, amassing a high number of disposals and goals, while Luke Parker will give crucial support. Port Adelaide, on the other hand, has some good players in Connor Rozee, Charlie Dixon, and Travis Boak, but they won’t be able to keep up with the Swans’ momentum.

Prediction for the final score: Swans 102, Power 79. Prepare for an exciting battle, but in the end, it will be the Swans who will be celebrating their well-deserved triumph!

Betting Tip: Swans

Suggested Bet: Swans LINE -19.5


Essendon vs GWS

Sunday, April 9, 2023

1:10 PM @ Giants Stadium

The Bombers will face GWS in what promises to be an exciting Easter Sunday clash.

Essendon may have lost their unbeaten start to the season last week, but they’ll be looking to rebound against the Giants at home. Darcy Parish was brilliant with 35 disposals and a goal despite the loss and will be a vital player for Essendon.

Meanwhile, after a contentious loss to Carlton last weekend, GWS will be hoping to get their season back on track. Jesse Hogan has been in good form for the Giants, scoring two or more goals in six consecutive games, but Essendon has a powerful defence and will do its best to keep him quiet.

GWS hasn’t won a game against a top-eight team in their last 11 attempts, and that pattern looks poised to continue this year, with Essendon looking like a top side.

Expect the Bombers to win with a final score of 99-81.

Betting Tip: Essendon

Suggested Bet: Bombers WINNING MARGIN 1-39


West Coast vs Melbourne

Sunday, April 9, 2023

3:20 PM @ MCG

In a dramatic Easter Sunday duel at Optus Stadium, the Melbourne Demons are likely to demolish the West Coast Eagles.

With the Eagles having lost 10 of their previous 11 games and Melbourne having just defeated Sydney 134-84, it’s evident that the Demons are the superior team.

Bayley Fritsch and Kysaiah Pickett of Melbourne are anticipated to dominate the scoring, with Angus Brayshaw and Jack Viney controlling the midfield. West Coast, on the other hand, has a mounting injury list and is failing to establish form, which is why they are the underdogs in this encounter.

Melbourne previously defeated the Eagles 112-38 and will almost certainly do so again with a score of 102-75 in their favour.

Betting Tip: Demons

Suggested Bet: Demons (Not worth betting on unless you go head-to-head)


Geelong vs Hawthorn

Monday, April 10, 2023

4:40 PM @ Marvel Stadium

On Easter Monday, Geelong will face Hawthorn at the MCG in a thrilling encounter. Despite their poor start to the season, I believe the Cats will rebound with a win.

Geelong has a solid track record at the MCG in day matches, having won seven of their last eight. The Hawks, on the other hand, have only won one of their last six games at the MCG. While Hawthorn defeated the Cats in an upset last Easter Monday, I doubt they’ll repeat the feat this year. Geelong’s recent results have been underwhelming, but they have a quality and veteran lineup capable of turning things around.

In terms of player numbers, I’m keeping a watch on Tyson Stengle from Geelong, who has scored two or more goals in 12 of the Cats’ last 13 home games. Hawthorn’s James Sicily has been a steady player, recording 25+ disposals in each of their previous six games. But, I believe Patrick Dangerfield of Geelong will step up and deliver 20+ disposals, as he has in 15 of his last 16 matches against Hawthorn.

My final score prediction is Geelong 97-68 Hawthorn. While the Hawks have shown some promise, the Cats have the upper hand in terms of overall quality and experience.

It’s time for Geelong to get their first win of the season and get their season started.

Betting Tip: Cats

Suggested Bet: Cats HEAD-to-HEAD


This week’s AFL Multi

  • Carlton
  • Saints
  • Swans
  • Bombers
  • Geelong

Take Bet: $4.27 with  Ladbrokes

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Ben H
Ben Harris is the Communications Manager for KRUZEY, an AFL expert, and writer. He has one daughter that he loves dearly and four children's books... [Read full bio]

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