Brisbane vs Collingwood Prediction

Brisbane Lions vs Collingwood Magpies Predictions

Thursday, April 2, 2026

7:30pm AEST @ The Gabba, Brisbane

Final Score Prediction

Brisbane Lions

100 : 88

Collingwood Magpies

The Setup

Easter Thursday at the Gabba – and Brisbane are finally getting right.

The Lions are 1-2 but that record flatters Collingwood’s task here. Brisbane have kicked over 100 points in two of their three games, smashed St Kilda by 33 last week, and controlled territory at will. Will Ashcroft and Jarrod Berry are humming in the midfield.

Collingwood arrive at 2-1 but they’re coming apart at the seams in the selection room. Darcy Moore (hamstring/bursa) is out for up to four weeks, Scott Pendlebury is almost certain to miss with an Achilles complaint, and Brisbane’s own defensive unit is short with Noah Answerth (concussion), Darcy Gardiner (shoulder), and Harris Andrews still serving suspension.

The market has Brisbane at $1.42 with a line of 16.5. My model agrees on the winner but comes in at 13 – 3.5 points short of the market. That gap matters for how we structure the bets.

Brisbane’s home momentum of 105.6 is the standout number – easily the highest in the model this round. Seven of the eight SHAP features actually point toward Collingwood, which sounds alarming until you realise that home momentum figure is doing most of the heavy lifting on its own. The scoring power differential of 32.9 is the one metric that really cuts through for the Pies, which tracks – Nick and Josh Daicos can manufacture something from nothing, and if Brisbane leak early goals, this gets interesting quickly.

But the injuries to Moore and Pendlebury hollow out Collingwood’s engine room and defensive spine at the same time. Hard to see them matching Brisbane’s clearance dominance without that experience.

Best Bets

Brisbane are the right team. The question is whether the line is worth chasing.

The model sits at Lions by 12 against a market line of 16.5 – so the H2H at $1.42 is the cleaner play. It’s short, but Brisbane at home with this injury news against them favours the Lions clearly.

On the line, the model says Collingwood cover more often than not – it’s 3.5 points short of 16.5. I’d leave the line alone and back the H2H with a moderate stake.

There’s no screaming value here, but backing the better team at home in good form is good process.

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