North Melbourne vs Brisbane Prediction & Tips – Round 5 2026

AFL Round 5 • 2026

Model Predicted – Final Score

NME

$5.10

Saturday, April 11

84 : 110

Barossa Park

BRL

$1.17

Brisbane Lions by 26 points

Model Predicted Margin

Brisbane Lions by 26

Current Market

North Melbourne Kangaroos -34.5

8.5 pts tighter

Best BetLINE BETTING

Best Bet: North Melbourne Kangaroos +34.5 @ $1.91

Model margin of 26 gives nearly nine points of cover on a line that overrates Brisbane’s dominance.

Claim This Tip at Ladbrokes

Odds correct at time of posting

Eight and a half points of free value on the Roos

These two drew 71-all last time they met in Hobart. North Melbourne couldn’t land the killer blow that day, but the point is they hung with the reigning premiers for four quarters. This isn’t the same pushover Roos side Brisbane belted by 70 in Round 4.

The market has Brisbane winning by nearly six goals. Our model says four. That’s eight and a half points of daylight between what we think happens and what the books are offering. North Melbourne’s form backs it up – three wins from four, sitting fifth on the ladder, and they’ve been competitive against quality opposition all year.

The tackle pressure is where North covers. They’re physically imposing at the contest and they’ll make Brisbane earn every disposal. That slows the game down and keeps the margin honest.

The risk is Brisbane’s clearance dominance. If they win the middle convincingly, they’ll pump the ball inside 50 and their efficiency there is elite. A fast start from the Lions could blow this open before the Roos settle.

But at Barossa Park in 14-degree conditions with a breeze, this is a grind game. That suits North Melbourne. The line’s too fat.

Kruzey’s Tip

Brisbane win by around four goals, but the 34.5-point line is generous – North Melbourne cover with room to spare.

Key Stats Behind the Tip

Form Guide