AFL Betting Tips Round 7
Nine games across four days – and the biggest disagreement…
Hawthorn vs Brisbane Prediction
Game 4 of Round 11 of the 2026 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on May 24 sees Hawthorn vs Brisbane at the MCG on Saturday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel.
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions Predictions
Saturday, May 24, 2026
4:15 pm AEDT @ the MCG, Melbourne
Final Score Prediction
84 : 82
Win Percentages
Hawthorn 56.24%
Brisbane 43.76%
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Hawthorn Hawks set at $1.55, and $2.40 for the Brisbane Lions, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
The Betting Edge
This Hawks vs Lions game is a tight one, and there’s a bit of value bubbling under the surface here.
Unibet has Hawthorn priced at $1.55, giving them an implied probability of 60.76%. Brisbane, meanwhile, are out at $2.40, which puts their implied chance at just 39.24%. But when we run the numbers ourselves, we reckon Brisbane are more in the mix than that, with a solid 43.76% chance of getting the job done, while Hawthorn sit at 56.24%.
That might not seem like a massive difference, but it’s enough to spot some value. If the Lions really do have close to a 44% chance of winning, their true odds should be closer to $2.28, so the $2.40 being offered is a bit of an overreaction from the market.
Brisbane are slightly undervalued here, and if our analysis holds up, there’s a bit of value in backing the Lions at $2.40.
Power Rankings Breakdown
Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:
Hawthorn vs Brisbane Head-to-Head Stats
- Average Points For Per Match: Hawthorn by 7.1
- Average Points Against Per Match: Hawthorn by 3.2
- Power Rank: Hawthorn by 6
- Average Winning Margin: Hawthorn by 12.14
- SoS Adjusted Points For: Hawthorn by 10
- Win Percentage: Even
- Average Opponent Rank: Even
- Average Opponent Win %: Hawthorn by 9%
- Average Opponent Points For: Hawthorn by 3
- Highest Score For: Hawthorn by 6
- Highest Score Against: Brisbane by 16
- Highest Total Match Score: Brisbane by 3
- Lowest Total Match Score: Brisbane by 25
- Adjusted Points For: Hawthorn by 10
- Adjusted Points Against: Hawthorn by 8
- True Power Score (Weighted): Hawthorn by 3.6
- OVER/UNDER Tempo: 168.9
- Game Style Prediction: Struggler Duel
- Average Opposition Ladder Rank: Hawthorn: 6, Brisbane: 6 – (Even)
- Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Hawthorn: 5.50, Brisbane: 7.33 – (Hawthorn by 1.83)
Over/Under Tempo: Mid-range tempo expected; could fluctuate with moments of open play and periods of congestion.
Game Style Prediction: Struggler duel. Expect an unpredictable clash between two teams battling for rhythm and consistency.
What to do?
Best bet is to take the Brisbane +9.5 this game, all signs indicate this game should be won by a few points so use the +9.5 as a buffer for a sneaky cash grab.
As for multis, take the Brisbane +9.5, UNDER 172.5, Hawthorn 1-39 for $12.50 with Unibet.
Hawthorn vs Brisbane Betting Tips
Related:
AFL Fixture
Check the AFL fixture for upcoming AFL matches this season.
AFL Injury List
Keep up-to-date with your team’s injuries this week with our AFL injury list.
Other Betting Tips
We don’t just do AFL Tips; our team of experts Also specialise in NRL betting and horse racing tips.
All AFL Tips
