Geelong vs Brisbane Prediction

Game 2 of Round 15 of the 2025 AFL Premiership on June 20 features the Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions at GMHBA Stadium on Friday night. Get the latest AFL betting tips, predictions, and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions Predictions

Friday, June 20, 2025

7:40pm @ GMHBA Stadium, Geelong

Final Score Prediction

Cats

88 : 83

Lions

Friday night football delivers a blockbuster clash between two premiership contenders at the famous Cattery.

Despite Brisbane sitting 6 places higher on the ladder, the bookies have installed Geelong as favourites in their fortress – but our analysis suggests this could be much closer than the 15.5 point line indicates.

Win Percentages

Cats
56.87%

Lions
43.13%

The Market Check

The bookmakers have priced this as a comfortable Geelong victory, but the odds tell a different story to our projections.

With Brisbane ranked 5th and Geelong 11th, the Lions’ superior form meets the Cats’ impenetrable home fortress in what shapes as an absolute thriller.

Cats

Lions

Why Geelong Should Win

GMHBA Stadium remains one of the toughest venues in the AFL, and the Cats have built a fortress that few teams can penetrate. Despite sitting lower on the ladder, Geelong’s home form has been exceptional.

The Cats average 14.4 more points scored and concede 3.1 fewer points than their opponents, demonstrating their balanced approach at the Cattery.

Head-to-Head Analysis

An intriguing clash of contrasting fortunes:

Attack: Geelong averaging 14.4 points more per game
Defence: Cats conceding 3.1 points less per game
Power Rankings: Brisbane 5th vs Geelong 11th
Home Advantage: GMHBA Stadium fortress factor
The Value: 5-point predicted margin vs 15.5-point line

Game Style Prediction: Balanced moderate scoring affair
Expected Total: Around 171 points – expect the overs to hit

Our Betting Strategy

Safe Play: Cats to Win

Cats @ $1.40

The Cattery advantage is real. Geelong rarely loses at home and should continue their dominance despite Brisbane’s superior ladder position.

Premium Value: Lions +15.5

Brisbane +15.5 @ $1.88

This is exceptional value! Our model predicts just a 5-point game, making the 15.5 points on offer look extremely generous for a top-5 team.

Long Shot Special: Lions Upset

Lions @ $2.88

Brisbane are the better team on current form and ladder position. At nearly 3-1 odds, backing the Lions represents solid value for an upset that’s more likely than the odds suggest.

The GMHBA Stadium Factor

The Cattery has been a graveyard for visiting teams, with Geelong’s narrow ground and passionate crowd creating one of the AFL’s most intimidating venues. However, Brisbane have the quality to overcome the hostile environment.
With both teams capable of scoring freely, expect an entertaining, high-scoring affair that could go down to the wire.

The Bottom Line

This shapes as one of the games of the round. While Geelong’s home record demands respect, Brisbane’s superior form and the generous line create multiple betting angles.
Our best bet is Brisbane +15.5 – getting over two goals start for a top-5 team is simply too good to pass up.

Remember to gamble responsibly.