Geelong vs Brisbane Prediction

Will Brisbane’s MCG Dominance End Geelong’s Premiership Dream?

Home • $1.48

Away • $2.75

Saturday • MCG • 17°C, 18 km/h winds

The stage is set for the biggest day in footy – Grand Final Saturday at the MCG.

After I crunched the numbers on this heavyweight clash between Geelong and Brisbane, one stat jumped off the page: the Lions have won their last five games at the ‘G. That’s the kind of form line that makes you sit up and take notice, especially with the Cats paying $1.48 to win.

Three weeks ago, these teams met in a qualifying final right here at the MCG.

Ollie Dempsey torched the Lions with 3 goals while Cam Rayner’s antics had the crowd fuming – but it was Lachie Neale limping off that changed Brisbane’s September plans.

Fast forward to now: Geelong dismantled Hawthorn by 30 points with Dangerfield rolling back the years (32 touches, 3 goals), while Brisbane smashed Collingwood by 29 without their Brownlow medallist, as McCluggage went ballistic with 37 disposals.

KRUZEY’S TIPS

Let me walk you through the value I’ve found in this Grand Final.

My model gives Geelong a 70.0% chance to win based on their superior recent form and scoring patterns.

The bookies have them at $1.48, which implies a 67.6% win chance. That’s modest value – the market’s underrating the Cats by +2.4%.

Brisbane at $2.75 by contrast, is priced at a 36.4% chance while my model shows 30.0%. That’s a −6.4% gap (no value on the Lions head-to-head).

BEST BET

HEAD-TO-HEAD

Geelong Cats H2H

$1.48

BET NOW

VALUE BET

Over 170.5 total points

$1.90

BET NOW

SMART HEDGE

Geelong Cats −12.5

$1.90

BET NOW

All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

Geelong offers a small overlay with a +2.4% probability edge (approx. +3.6% ROI at the price).

The predicted 27-point margin also makes Geelong −12.5 attractive – estimated cover probability ~64% (edge ~+11.4% vs 52.63% implied).

Our Prediction

GEE 103 | BRI 76

Win Probability

GEE 70.0% | BRI 30.0%

Market Edge

2.4%

on Geelong

FORM LINE

Both teams are absolutely flying. Geelong has won five straight by an average of 35 points, putting up 110 points per game while keeping opponents to just 70.

That’s elite finals footy. Their attack has been surgical – they’re averaging 15.6 goals per game this finals series, well above their season average.

Brisbane’s form is equally impressive despite missing their best midfielder.

They’ve also won four of their last five, with that sole loss coming against these very Cats three weeks ago. The Lions are averaging 93 points in their last five while conceding just 70.6 – that defensive steel will be crucial in a Grand Final.

Most importantly, they’ve discovered how to win without Neale, with McCluggage, Bailey and Ashcroft all stepping up.

Geelong Cats

WWWWW

Average winning margin of 35 points in last five
Averaging 110 points for, 70 against
15.6 goals per game this finals series

Brisbane Lions

WWWWL

Won 4 of last 5 matches
Averaging 93 points for, 70.6 against
Have won last five games at the MCG

KEY STATS

The numbers that matter for your bet? Geelong averages 15.6 goals per game at home versus Brisbane’s 13 away – that’s a significant 16-point differential right there.

But here’s the kicker: Brisbane actually wins the clearance battle (40.5 to 37.9 per game), which becomes massive if Jarrod Berry misses with his shoulder injury.

Both teams dominate inside 50s equally (56.5 plays 56.4), but it’s Geelong’s conversion rate that stands out.

They’re the more efficient team going forward, though Brisbane’s 72.4% disposal efficiency shows they won’t waste possessions.

GOALS PER GAME

Geelong
15.6

Brisbane
13

CLEARANCES PER GAME

Brisbane
40.5

Geelong
37.9

INSIDE 50s PER GAME

Geelong
56.5

Brisbane
56.4