You Don’t Know More Than Everyone Else*

Michael Kruse / 29 August 2022

Last Updated on 14 July 2023

*Racetrack Ralphy Email*

Quality day’s racing at Caulfield Saturday, where the market, as expected was lethal in either direction.

Vince Accardi and I have had a deep dive review via our Year Round Carnival podcast, which as always is free and corporate bookie ad free due to support from our loyal members

Listen here.

Members get best of the day from our Blackbook Sizzlers – both Melbourne and Sydney – meaning three weeks back they received this about $7 winner of race 7 CHAIN OF LIGHTNING

Chain Of Lightning
Trainer: Peter Moody
Jockey: Jamie Kah

The 0.5-length winner of Race 9

+1.5 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

Summary

Mare on the rise who started her career “out wide” in NSW before joining Peter Moody. Won at Caulfield first start for him 25/06 with just -3.4 lengths below benchmark, but note leading into a savage headwind day where running time was nearly impossible. Here we found out more with a clear PB. -2.7 at the 800, +1.8 mid-race, and +0.7 last 400. 2nd best last 800 and 600 of the day and the best last 200 showing the sustained nature of the close. 

Subsequently: Group 3 Winner Caulfield 27/08

Of note was that +1.5 IVR figure was – just – superior to PASSIVE AGGRESSIVE’S best which was +1.4, yet PASSIVE AGGRESSIVE started $1:90.

That was one race where the market didn’t know…

To become a member:  https://racetrackralphy.com.au/podcast

So as I stated above, going into the meeting respect for the market *real* information had to be a priority, and by real I mean right before the race when ppl have chosen to outlay or not outlay their own money.

As the legendary form student Dominic Beirne once said, you’ll go broke very quickly ignoring the collective intelligence of the market, and when like Saturday there’s so much *unknown* information with resuming runners, including some from interstate/overseas/new trainers, and others taking the quantum leap from 2yo to 3yo, it was set to be best additional layer of information on the day.

(It’s often called “Wisdom of Crowds” which, if unaware and keen to learn more, is covered very well in Superforecasting https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock/dp/0804136718 )

Here’s some vital pre-race market intel on the day:

Race 3 MUNHAMEK – First Australian start Ex-Hong Hong after 216 days away backed through the morning from teen odds and officially $10 to $6 before winning.

Race 4 I WISH I WIN – First Australian start Ex-NZ after 161 days away. $5-$6 range race morning and officially $3:80 to $2:80 and then bolted in.

Race 4 BUFFALO RIVER – Beaten 0.5 length in a Group 2 a fortnight back on firm ground, gets onto his preferred wet ground and… Betfairitis out to $7 and *only* beaten 7.6 lengths…

Race 5 JACQUINOT – Showed talent as a 2yo including a big debut win this track/distance. How had he returned??? $7:50 to $5:50 before winning very impressively like a horse that is fit and ready to launch in Sydney’s Golden Rose.

Race 5 DAUMIER – The “Blue Diamond winner” officially $9 to $13 and $19 Betfair beaten 9.2 lengths like a horse that wasn’t fit with goals ahead.

Race 6 SHOOTING FOR GOLD – Mid teens race morning off a very plain Flemington miss first local start, and officially $10 to $9 and winning, stating it was the straight track rather than any travelling issues that caused his downfall leading in and he was set to rebound to his QLD best which he did.

Race 6 IN THE BOAT – First up last prep a dynamic track/distance win Boxing Day. Here officially $5:50 to $6 and $8:40 Betfair before leading and compounding like a horse that wasn’t fit with goals ahead.

Race 7 GRACEFUL GIRL – WA Group 1 winner of genuine talent having her first start in 273 since that Winterbottom victory. $13 to $21 and $36 Betfair said there was no chance she was wound up. She wasn’t.

Race 8 SNAPDANCER – Double figures race morning, $7:50 pre-race said she was at her absolute top despite 63 days between runs and interstate travel. She was!

Race 8 ILLATION – “BOOM” unbeaten 4yo where the known was he was an exciting talent with upside and he was out of his class having to progress. The other “known” was Price Kent team rarely run them in that set up so they must have had a big opinion of him being up to it. Pre-race? $7 to $8:50 and $11 Betfair. Tailed off last.

Race 9 DELPHI First start in 168 days after a poor run in the Australian Cup, but having shown genuine talent last spring. Pre-race $9 to $12 officially and $16 Betfair beaten 6.7 lengths.

So you, me and anyone else doesn’t know more than everyone else*.

* The exception of course is when you are privy to any of the type of “unknown* information that moves the market before the market was moved!

Have a great week.

Ralphy 

“Racetrack” Ralphy Horowitz provides independent form analysis via racetrackralphy.com.au. He uses Vince Accardi’s dailysectionals.com.au IVR benchmarking service and together they do the Year Round Carnival podcast https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/year-round-carnival-by-vince-accardi-racetrack-ralphy/id1272190424?mt=2 review of the weekend’s main races every Monday”https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock/dp/0804136718

 

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Michael Kruse
Michael loves all things all horse racing and has been in the game for quite some time. His knowledge in the betting space is second... [Read full bio]

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