The Data Wizardry of Ollie Explained

Michael Kruse / 8 May 2019

Last Updated on 14 July 2023

Highlight of the weekend’s racing was the Group 1 double in South Australia of Princess Jenni in the Oaks and Spright in the Sangster, of course both ridden by the great Damien Oliver.

Ollie genius via the data

Speaking of the SA Group 1’s, one of the many things I’ve learnt via Vince’s data is that the best jockeys “ride to the numbers” to enable maximum efficiency for the animal.

Of course they don’t “intend” to go “x” over each 200 increment, but their respective skill in judging pace is repeatedly shown clearly.

On Saturday in the Oaks winning on PRINCESS JENNI

From the start to the 800 she was going +7.8 lengths above IVR benchmark sitting 4.2 lengths from the leader who was completely overdoing it going +12.

When the lead speed is too hot, 3-6 lengths is the “sweet spot” as inside that is too quick, and further back means you’re trying to make ground when fatigued, so firstly he was going considerably faster than Caulfield (-7.7) but knew he had to.

Then the 800 to 400 and 400 to the winning post WAS IDENTICAL!

-1.3 lengths below benchmark then -1.3 lengths below benchmark.

Meaning she was deteriorating as efficiently as possible!

In the Sangster SPRIGHT came from the rear in her typical fashion

Again the efficiency was in action despite on this occasion going relatively slowly early at the 800 going -5.0 lengths below benchmark, but it was from there conversely she increased and maintained her pace as efficiently as possible peaking at the 600 before a very gradual deterioration of +0.3 lengths from the 400 to 200 then EXACTLY +0.3 lengths in her last 200.

The 200 increments were:
# +2.2 from the 800 to 600
# +2.9 from the 600 to 400
# +2.6 from the 400 to 200
# +2.3 from the 200 to the winning post

Keep that in mind going forward when wondering whether you want your hard earned on elite jockeys, or ones that just “sit on”.

As the lower tier riders see those same type of data figures in a “zig zag” pattern repeatedly.

And when laughably hearing that an inexperienced apprentice is better riding an animal at 60kph just because he’s carrying 3kgs less.

Oh and here’s a replay of GRINZINGER STAR getting poleaxed in traffic at Flemington on Saturday when $2:15..

Grinzinger Star Replay


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Michael Kruse
Michael loves all things all horse racing and has been in the game for quite some time. His knowledge in the betting space is second... [Read full bio]

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