William Thomas – WEIGHT A Minute

Michael Kruse / 6 June 2019

Last Updated on 29 December 2022

Real sectional study and fallacy of weights example 9 million and 7

For this week’s post thought we’d have a look at another “apples to apples” set up.

On the 11th of May WILLIAM THOMAS was a dynamic winner in Race 2 over 1100 metres which Vince Accardi ranked best of the day with +1.8 lengths above benchmark.

He carried 59kgs.

On Saturday at Caulfield also over 1100 he ran a plain 5th when just $4:20.

He carried 54kgs.

Why did he run slower with less weight? Did he have a bad day? Or did the tactics and/or race shape mean he couldn’t have run any faster?

I confidently use a quote from Who Wants To Be A Millionaire, “Lock in B Eddie”

And follow up with it being another example that “weight” is the most overrated aspect of horseracing.

Firstly take it as a given that the two tracks played similarly and the overall winning times were similar. (64.32 secs in the former and 64.20 in the latter.)

But lets look at the IVR breakdown of the two races for real “apples to apples” as to why he could have run better, in lengths above and below benchmark in the different

To the 800                800 to 400             Last 400
11/05         -4.6                          +4.1                      -3.2
01/06         -6.6                          -1.8                       +3.4

So – and you can marry it up watching the two watching the replay – in the first the leaders flew and last Saturday the apprentice on JUNGLE EDGE thought going slowly was the right play.

In the former that made jockey Michael Dee put his mount under pressure in the mid race, whereas in the latter he “sat there” given he was closer to the lead.

However it was the wrong move because as the data clearly shows, he left too much for too late.

Race to race if you aren’t familiar with Vince’s work he’s gone 2 lengths slower in the first 300 last Saturday then 5.9 lengths slower between the 800 and 400 meaning – to back over it! – his first 700 metres was 7.9 lengths slower!

His last 400 was 6.6 lengths faster, yet he was unplaced and that is the mathematical proof too much was left too late.

In his win he ran the 13th best last 400 of the day, but on Saturday he ran the best last 400 of the day.

Perhaps Dee couldn’t have done much more, but the best jockeys “ride to the numbers” and get proactive when things aren’t turning out as hoped.

And not talking through the pocket as was delighted the race turned out as hoped!

“Racetrack” Ralphy Horowitz provides independent form analysis via racetrackralphy.com.au. He uses Vince Accardi’s dailysectionals.com.au IVR benchmarking service and together they do the Year Round Carnival podcast review of the weekend’s main races every Monday”

Michael Kruse
Michael loves all things all horse racing and has been in the game for quite some time. His knowledge in the betting space is second... [Read full bio]

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