How (& Who) To Bet On The US Election

Michael Kruse / 29 September 2020

The 2016 US Election was the biggest betting market in history.

2020 will be bigger.

So let’s give you everything you need to know for Donald Trump vs Joe Biden.

We’ll tell you the exact odds at the moment, who to back, and who to follow as the November election approaches. There are so many betting opportunities.

Before that, let’s reflect on the 2016 Election results.

2016 Election: Trump vs Clinton

The biggest betting market in the history of Betfair was the 2016 US Election between Hilary Clinton and Donald Trump.

There was nearly $400 million traded on the global betting exchange.

Hilary was the raging favourite, roughly $1.20 on the night.

Trump was $4.50.

Then Hilary got off to a flyer on early results and Trump got out to over $10 on Betfair.

Hilary won the popular vote (total votes), but Trump won the Electoral College.

That meant that he won the most votes in some of the biggest states. Like Florida, Texas and Pennsylvania.

Going into that night, Trump and Clinton had the lowest approval ratings of any Presidential candidate in history. And Trump’s approval rating, according to one of the most popular political sites FiveThirtyEight, has gotten worse since then.

So what does that mean for 2020?

Biden vs Trump Odds

Again, Trump is the outsider.

But not by much.

Biden $1.78 vs Trump $2.34 (Betfair -September 28th 2020)

Using the graph from our friends at Bet Refinery you can see that Trump was the dominant favourite before Covid-19 hit and the political unrest started.

Trump traded as short as $1.64 before blowing out to $3.00 under the pressure of Covid-19.

Despite the US having the most Covid-19 deaths and serious political chaos (Black Lives Matter protests, Antifa, QAnon), the stock market has hit it’s highest ever level under Trump. And there is a strong correlation between economic performance and Presidential elections.

So Trump has Covid-19 deaths working against him, serious political division in the country and he came in as the least popular elected President. And his approval has gotten worse. Unemployment is also at a very high level, 8.4%, after hitting double digits only a few months ago.

But on the plus side, he has an incredibly loyal base and the stock market has been unbelievable. He is also gaining small and medium business support from Americans who don’t want lockdowns and working restrictions. Not dissimilar to the growing segment of small and medium business owners in Victoria who disagree with (and would presumably vote against) Premier Daniel Andrews.

What About Joe Biden?

We’ve discussed plenty of Trump news but what about Joe Biden?

‘Sleepy’ Joe is 77 years old and is being criticized for memory loss and teleprompters. The accusations being that he is just a puppet for the political machine that is the Democratic Party. A Senator since 1973, he’s effectively a lifelong politician.

However, his supporters see Biden as a safe and steady choice. The Vice President under Obama brings stability and isn’t as far left-leaning as Bernie Sanders and some of the other Democratic Nominees during 2016.

With Kamala Harris as his running mate and a strong reputation, Biden is expected to attract votes from women, minorities, Democrat supporters and Trump haters. The latter two groups aren’t necessarily the same thing.

Importantly, Biden has been dominating the polls vs Trump for many months.

Best Resources

Before we share our tips, these are the resources we recommend checking in with each week:

The best places to bet on the Election are Betfair or Ladbrokes.

Betfair has the best odds and Sportsbet has lots of fun side markets.

Who To Back?

The smart money is still on Biden. You get even better odds in 2020 because we all remember the historic upset that was 2016.

So we say back Biden now at $1.78 at Betfair. You should be able to back Trump later if Biden shortens over the coming month.

But we also have a Trump bet that we love.

Trump to win Florida at $1.80.

Trump can win Florida and still lose the White House. He loves his Florida golf courses, it’s his home away from home and Florida seems to be really against Covid-19 lockdowns and masks. The famous swing state voted for Trump in 2016 too.

Final Betting Tips

Back Biden at $1.78.

Back Trump to win Florida at $1.80.

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Michael Kruse
Michael loves all things all horse racing and has been in the game for quite some time. His knowledge in the betting space is second... [Read full bio]

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