The Supercolt’s Kryptonite

The theme for the newsletter is the “Kryptonite” reason (seemingly of course as from outside the stable we can only observe the data and make assumptions) for the defeat of BIVOUAC, who for mine was astonishingly backed and basically the money stopped coming for him when the barrier opened!

I say “astonishingly” because in the spring at the same track/distance behind LOVING GABY he failed to show enough gate speed to be able to do much about his inside barrier, (REPLAY) and while he did find late traffic it is of course always easier to be unlucky than win, and here he was again from barrier 1 against LOVING GABY.

Perhaps the “old school” thinking of being “well weighted” was the reason for the truckload (REPLAY) but on the clock we’re confident the “real” reason – OK it’s our reason and we’re sticking to it! – was his early “comfort” speed level is around benchmark.

On Friday night (REPLAY) to ensure he wouldn’t end up pocketed again from the barrier they were positive and fair enough, and the “apples to apples” comparison of the same track/distance Manikato to the William Reid, and then his other big wins, shows a clear difference in performance.

IVR            to 800       to 400    last 400  Overall
25/10          +3.0           +3.4       +1.0       +2.9
20/03          +3.0           +2.1       +1.8       +2.3

That means his first 400 was EXACTLY the same despite leading Friday night and 3rd line last October.

In the Oakleigh Plate in that murderous tempo his splits were (note when worse than mid field)

to 800      to 400   last 400    Overall
IVR              -0.3          +6.9     +0.8           +2.7

That prompted us to write in Sizzlers when “everyone” was screaming “track bias”

+2.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 12th on the day.

He’s at his best going around benchmark in sprint races, so -0.3 was notionally ideal at the 800, but PIPPIE was 4.5 lengths in front of him and then increased her speed. As such he improved 7.3 lengths going +6.9 just maintaining his spot, and first up that gassed him out at +0.8 last 400. Note he lost 2.9 lengths over the last 200, and that drop off can also be seen by the 6th best last 800 of the day, but the 45th best last 200. Last prep 3rd up beating YES YES YES over 1200 after going -1.1 early he exploded and produced a +5.4 lengths above benchmark overall time. Wouldn’t drop off him off this run!

In his super Newmarket win:

to 800     to 400    last 400     Overall
IVR      -0.3        +2.8       +0.1           +4.0    (note softer conditions hence IVR times adjusted up rather than down.)

Golden Rose win 28/09 note 1400

to 800   to 400     last 400     Overall
IVR     +1.9       +2.4        +4.1           +5.0

Rosehill 14/09 winning 1200

to 800   to 400     last 400     Overall
IVR      -1.1       +5.2        +6.0          +5.4

Caulfield 17/08 winning 1100 by 4.3 lengths

to 800   to 400    last 400     Overall
IVR     -3.4       -1.0         +5.6           +3.2

Being a “maths nuffy” it’s one of the key fascinating things I’ve learnt from Vince that horses absolutely have certain physical profiles and in BIVOUAC’S case it’s pretty clear that when it’s (only) even speed early, he’s a monster late.

Fingers crossed we keep racing, and if so on typical softer Sydney autumn tracks going forward with BIVOUAC back to his comfort zone, write him off at your peril!

“Racetrack” Ralphy Horowitz provides independent form analysis via racetrackralphy.com.au. He uses Vince Accardi’s dailysectionals.com.au IVR benchmarking service and together they do the Year Round Carnival podcast review of the weekend’s main races every Monday”

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