A Sure Slaughter Of An Odds On Pop

Michael Kruse / 3 December 2019

The newsletter returns and will kick off with a caveat about the topic:

Nothing I ever write is personal unless I’m specifically being personal – I’m definitely not today! – nor does observations of tactics ever equate to lack of respect for the extreme dangers or spartan lifestyles that jockeys endure.

And on this occasion as I’m writing about the tactics employed by an apprentice, I’m referring to – I assume – the instructed tactics rather than his level of ability, and challenging the “belief” that “weight relief” automatically equates to an advantage.

So to underline it isn’t a “cook of a kid”, just the reading of data and a belief of why positioning led to defeat!


Here is a replay of SURE KNEE from her run at Moonee Valley on Saturday Click here.

And the reason it started $1:85 favourite was her super lead in win at Flemington where we wrote:

SURE KNEE the 2.8 length winner of Race 3

We sizzled her first up at Randwick when +0.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 28th on the day after a booming mid race which she sustained home.

Here she was dominant here only 3rd up with +2.4 lengths above benchmark ranked 6th of the day, and at the very least her PB from last prep also here over a mile May of +3.3 is well within her sights and as a stronger mare now likely to be able to drag that figure to the 2000 range.

To the 800 Flemington -2.8 and to the 400 +0.7
To the 800 The Valley -9.1 and to the 400 +8.8.

So 6.3 lengths slower first section and 8.1 lengths faster mid section.

Flemington 800 to 400 an increase of speed of 3.5 lengths.
The Valley 800 to 400 an increase of speed of 17.9 lengths.

That is another suburb! That’s why she failed to run past the leaders at the 400 when visually within striking distance.

Different Setups?

So there’s two types of set ups in a race: One a rider can do something about where now famously Craig Williams on VOW & DECLARE in the Melbourne Cup is a prime example, and one they can’t do much about about, say when an inside drawn runner is slowly away and/or can’t muster sufficient speed early and the rider is “stuck” where he/she is.

EG Kerrin McEvoy on BIVOUAC in the Manikato Stakes: Click For Replay.

On Saturday SURE KNEE  was the former because she was drawn 5 of 8 and as is obvious below in the head on of the stewards vision (below left) and below middle, the mare was overracing on the soft speed and being restrained slower than she wanted to go to get cover behind a runner that took her nowhere (SHAHZADE) despite there clearly being a spot to slot into.

It was the case of the rider allowing the race shape to dictate to him rather than being bold and taking the race on.

By below right at the 800 as has been explained the race was effectively over.

At a mile range, SURE KNEE without question has 3-5 lengths on TATA DE GOOSE every day of the week, but was 2 lengths behind her on Saturday in running 3rd due to race shape tactics.

Keep that in mind next time you hear or read about the “advantage” of a 2 kilogram claim!

Would you rather an extra 4 lengths position in running advantage?

Because often that’s the difference in competency of a senior quality rider, compared to a young one learning their craft.

True handicapping is Stawell Gift style “head starts” rather than a bit more on top of a half tonne animal surely???

Newest Year Round Carnival has a deep dive into HEY DOC Winterbottom win and select Rosehill races.

Year Round Carnival Podcast.

Have a great week.

“Racetrack” Ralphy Horowitz provides independent form analysis via racetrackralphy.com.au. He uses Vince Accardi’s dailysectionals.com.au IVR benchmarking service and together they do the Year Round Carnival podcast review of the weekend’s main races every Monday”

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Michael Kruse
Michael loves all things all horse racing and has been in the game for quite some time. His knowledge in the betting space is second... [Read full bio]

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