The Spring Set up!

Michael Kruse / August 29, 2019

After a very slow winter terrific to see some genuine quality at Caulfield last Saturday week and a stack of high class horses and performances at Randwick last Saturday.

Two Y’s In The Word market

Moonee Valley had two very well backed winners that is well worth reflecting on, with one being curious and the others a “shoulders back” which saw “everyone” agree with.

The first was race 3.

Where only two horses were backed in winner SASSY SALITAGE who was $10 into $6:50 and LADY LAPINO who was $4:50 into $4:00.

Early favourite TARAAYEF who was a very solid first up winner at Moonee Valley three weeks earlier.

Was $3:50 out to $4:50 and showed in her first prep she had the speed to lead this field.

(Twice just above dailysectionals.com.au benchmark early in 1000 metre races.)

What was curious about the money for SASSY SALITAGE who unlike LADY LAPINO had showed an excellent standard of ability, was her debut win was in a slow time at Pakenham, where dashing home with the best last 600 and 400 of the day.

Why did the market like a horse off a slow time/dash home at the Synthetic track that pros are no – rightly! So sceptical about?

Well the old saying the “market tell you the speed map” was in play, with SASSY SALITAGE and LADY LUPINO (who had EIPH) leading AT A WALK at -5.3 lengths below benchmark, while TARAAYEF had zero chance mathematically after completely conceding from wide early going -9.9 lengths below benchmark at the 800. (Was also listed as sore.)

For context the lead speed in the very next race was +4.1 by ANGELIC SPIRIT (who ran 2nd) meaning SASSY SALITAGE’S first 400 metres was 9.4 lengths slower.

Now that’s an advantage!

The “shoulders back” was TAVISAN in race 8:

There was 3 horses in the market, with the other two being USAIN BOWLER and TERBIUM and TAVISAN was the only leader of the 3 of them.

When the market agrees with the obvious, swim with the tide!

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“Racetrack” Ralphy Horowitz provides independent form analysis via racetrackralphy.com.au. He uses Vince Accardi’s dailysectionals.com.au IVR benchmarking service and together they do the Year Round Carnival podcast review of the weekend’s main races every Monday”

Michael Kruse
Michael loves all things all horse racing and has been in the game for quite some time. His knowledge in the betting space is second... [Read full bio]

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