Speed kills – Backmarkers!

Michael Kruse / September 26, 2019

This week’s newsletter theme is an apples to apples comparison of the Memsie Stakes and Rupert Clarke last Saturday via Vince Accardi’s dailysectionals.com.au IVR platform. (We “Sizzled” winner BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER back in April and have enjoyed documenting his journey to a Group 1 through the year.)

Both 1400 Group 1’s at Caulfield and both on similar surfaces/conditions three weeks apart.

The former Weight For Age and the latter a handicap.

Speed Killed – Backmarkers In The Rupert Clarke

Here’s a replay of the Memsie 31/08 won by SCALES OF JUSTICE:

And here’s the Rupert Clarke last Saturday won by BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER:

Pointers

In the Memsie BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER led at the 800 metre mark going +6.4 lengths above IVR benchmark and on Saturday when ICONOCLASM – bizarrely in extraordinary tactics by Linda Meech – was going +7.6 he sat 2nd going +6.3.

POINT 1: All honours Declan Bates for running the first 600 metres nearly identically race to race and letting Meech overdo it instead of trying to match pace. It was a winning move.

In the Memsie BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER at the 400 metre mark while leading was going +1.8 lengths above IVR benchmark, while on Saturday he was going +5.5 “hanging on” to the back of ICONOCLASM.

POINT 2: By having a “bunny” in front of him going at an unsustainable pace, BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER only lost 0.8 of a length in the mid race, while in the Memsie in leading he slowed 4.6 lengths. THIS MEANT THOSE BEHIND HIM IN THE MEMSIE SPENT MUCH LESS ENERGY GETTING INTO THE RACE SIMPLY MAINTAINING THEIR SPEED, WHILE ON SATURDAY BACKMARKERS HAD TO INCREASE THEIR SPEED AND IT GASSED THEM OUT.

In the Memsie BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER closed with -4.8 while on Saturday his last 400 was -4.7.

POINT 3: He was just as tired in winning as he was when running 6th. The difference in his performance was from the 800 metre mark to the 400 metre mark which is opinion free and simply a mathematical fact. The (unanswerable) question is what would have happened if BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER had to lead? Would he have slowed in the mid race again?

So all credit to jockey and trainer for perfect tactics and getting the horse to peak on the day with a +6.1 winning IVR figure, but note it was EXACTLY the same as SCALES OF JUSTICE winning figure, but a different race shape.

Note when speed is fast and faster EVERYTHING is spent in the home straight, and as you can see on the replay the first 4 home were barriers 3,1,6 and 4 cutting the corner as nothing had the energy to get to the faster lanes in the middle of the track.

The “proof” is via SO SI BON (this bit is opinion but based on assuming he was in good order on each occasion and through the facts Vince’s platform provides):

Overall:         To 800:        To 400:       Last 400
Memsie          +5.6               -0.9              +4.6           +3.5
Saturday        +3.1               +2.5             +5.9           -4.2

SO SI BON as a “mid-fielder” with a big finish doesn’t have natural early speed. In the Rupert Clarke he was forced to go 3.4 lengths faster in the first 600 metres, while including the next section meant his first 1000 metres was 4.7 lengths faster.

And it totally gassed him with a 7.7 lengths inferior closing 400 sprint.

Every race is different and that’s what makes the caper endlessly fascinating.

“Racetrack” Ralphy Horowitz provides independent form analysis via racetrackralphy.com.au. He uses Vince Accardi’s dailysectionals.com.au IVR benchmarking service and together they do the Year Round Carnival podcast review of the weekend’s main races every Monday”

Michael Kruse
Michael loves all things all horse racing and has been in the game for quite some time. His knowledge in the betting space is second... [Read full bio]

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