Newmarket Handicap – Clear as Sunlight

Michael Kruse / 14 March 2019


Sunlight of course won the Newmarket,

And of her (top pick) I wrote:

Sunlight Barend Vorster • Tony McEvoy (9) 51kg

$7:00 Brilliant winner of the Coolmore this track/distance and mid race slowdown suggested she possibly could have gone a bit better. Returned as favourite in the Lightning but again had a mid race slowdown that almost certainly both cost her victory and tested her fitness too much first up. Middle draw should be ideal and if the visiting jockey gets it right, she should take a power of beating with a slick jump out here 8 days back

Her $13.00 odds were remarkable particularly considering v OSBORNE BULLS who was $4:20 she was $3.20 in the Lightning when OSBORNE BULLS was $8.

Why the savage swing for both when there was just 0.2 length between them???

Of runner up I wrote

Osborne Bulls Hugh Bowman • James Cummings (22) 56kg

$8:00 Was the flashing light “the whole world saw” with his super best last 800, 600, 400 and 200 of the day to just miss in the Lightning, but the question has to now be asked if he is overbet? Won this track/distance Derby Day but is ZERO chance of winning this if he ran that time here. I obviously expect him to go much quicker than that as clearly he is in great order, but he will need a clear career best in the 1200 range and most probably best ever over his 5th in last year’s Rupert Clarke. As such will stake to not get stripped out on but have others for the result

Firstly when they BOTH won Derby Day same track/distance there was 1.1 seconds between the times in SUNLIGHT’S favour so around six lengths

Osborne Bulls

So why was there both a savage underrating of SUNLIGHT in the Newmarket and was there not a big margin between them given OSBORNE BULLS was so much slower on Derby Day?

In both cases the answers were in the mid-race measurements that Vince has pioneered in his work

Firstly as you can see at the top of this page, we clearly articulated that in the Lightning Stakes SUNLIGHT lost 4.8 lengths between the 800 and 400 so clearly the market under-rated that aspect into the Newmarket

It needs to be underlined how good the Vorster ride was as he increased her speed by 4 lengths from the 800 giving her a monster position in running advantage.


As far as comparing the Derby Day runs, again the mid race told the tale

In the Newmarket Osborne Bulls between the 800 and 400 he went +5 lengths while on Derby Day in a slow race where the leaders came back to him he went only -2.1, so 7.1 faster in just 400 metres.

And there’s the difference…

Finally on the noise regarding Hugh Bowman’s ride on OSBORNE BULLS.

What amuses me is the assumption that going faster early doesn’t equate to energy depletion late

EG: “If Hugh had have been here, then he would have won…”

If I was one foot taller, twenty five years younger, much fitter and faster, and had some actual footy talent, I’d be a chance of helping out Max Gawn in the ruck at Melbourne

“Racetrack” Ralphy Horowitz provides independent form analysis via He uses Vince Accardi’s IVR benchmarking service and together they do the Year Round Carnival podcast review of the weekend’s main races every Monday”

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Michael Kruse
Michael loves all things all horse racing and has been in the game for quite some time. His knowledge in the betting space is second... [Read full bio]

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