How a 100 to one winner logically won a Group 1

Michael Kruse / September 18, 2019

This is a character building caper and we were reminded of it on Saturday when GATTING clean bowled the high class Makybe Diva field.

(Despite the carnage in the big race, personally for the scoreboard I found ROX THE CASTLE and SPANISH WHISPER, but the difference between a winning and losing day was the race 1 car crash with KING OF LEOGRANCE who I ranked $2;35, was very confident about and if it wouldn’t have won with clear air I’ll go he.

If you think that equates to putting out poor information on the day please hit the unsubscribe button below.

So how and why could a horse win at 100 to 1 in a high class Group 1 field when every runner effectively had their chance if they were good enough on the day in the truly run race shape?

To hear Vince Accardi’s take, our Year Round Carnival podcast did a deep dive on it with Vince off the sight screen in the style of the great West Indian fast bowler Michael Holding!

As always it’s free and corporate bookie Ad Free, being sponsored by our loyal members and his review of ARCADIA QUEEN from Rosehill includes the comparison to WINX and with him you know, it’s based on fact!

Year Round Carnival Podcast

THE GATTING BALL WHERE IT HURT

Roughies are typically able to win in unusual race shapes – EG a very slow pace that famously combined with a biased track that saw PRINCE OF PENZANCE win the Melbourne Cup.

An “unknown” set up with a low profile “out wide” trainer like with ASTRO CASTRO when he won on debut at 100 to 1 without a public jump out at Flemington July 2016.

Astro Castro Race.

Or a stayer resuming at a seemingly unsuitable distance like NOZOMI at $151 in August 2017.

None of that was in play here.

A perfect track, a fast pace GAILO CHOP at +6.4 lengths above IVR benchmark to the 800, and GATTING winning in the best IVR time in Melbourne this season at +6.8.

So why was it 100 to 1? Hopefully my analysis pre-race sufficiently explained for customers the “dual equation” that he had the talent to win, but was a big doubt about if he was at his best.

In Vince’s Race Speed Profiles he does a table that has the best IVR performances from each horse’s last campaign and the last 3 preparations and GATTING’s +8.8 set when 2nd in the Railway Stakes was THE BEST in the field from last prep only, and expanding to the last 3 preps, only HARTNELL at +9.6 in winning the Epsom was better.

This prep? A small field heavy track (that wasn’t heavy but slow) +1.2 win over GALAXY STAR (who beat it in that outstanding Railway), but the lack of pressure/softer deck took the pressure out and meant a fast time was out of the question, before the mare turned the tables winning by a nose but in a treacle tempo 2000. +1.9 there was GATTING’S best for the prep, but off just a -13.0 lead speed.

His very next start was in a murderous tempo 2200 going +9.8 to the 800 meaning he was both at the end of his distance range and had to go 22.8 lengths faster early.

No wonder he gassed! Given a 7 week freshen up back to 1300 and never mind the data, look at what happened in the run for the rider with poor city stats…

Gatting Results.

So he goes to Melbourne off an “everything went wrong” run, and gets an “everything went right” set up with his A-game for Jamie Kah who is dead set flying into the meeting

Then! Veterans SCALES OF JUSTICE and HARTNELL didn’t run to their best being 5th and 4th, while MYSTIC JOURNEY just didn’t have the grounding to cope noting GATTING was rock hard fit racing through the winter v MYSTIC JOURNEY who was 2nd up off a soft Caulfield win with 4 weeks between runs.

It was $2:10 and I – correctly – priced it at $3:25 communicating:

$3:25 Star Tassie mare going for consecutive win number 8, but despite her obvious elite talent this looks her biggest challenge yet. In her 3 mile wins she busted the clock Cox Plate Day 4th run for the prep stalking a murderous lead speed, smashed the boys in the Australian Guineas this track/distance in March in an outstanding win when 3rd up, backing it up in the All Star Mile a fortnight later. The main dual query is that SCALES OF JUSTICE all time level is currently better than hers and he’s tracking to match it off Caulfield and her Caulfield first up win was off a very soft tempo with a booming best last 400 of the day close. Cox Plate her goal. Is she a run away from being at her best?

Operation was a success but the patient died…

Horseracing is endlessly fascinating because it throws up the occasional complete left field scenario like the Makybe proving that “anything can happen” once the barriers open, but studying the data gives us the insight to at least make sense of it post race.

Even or in fact especially when we get it wrong.

“Racetrack” Ralphy Horowitz provides independent form analysis via racetrackralphy.com.au. He uses Vince Accardi’s dailysectionals.com.au IVR benchmarking service and together they do the Year Round Carnival podcast review of the weekend’s main races every Monday”

Michael Kruse
Michael loves all things all horse racing and has been in the game for quite some time. His knowledge in the betting space is second... [Read full bio]

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