Lanes, Brains and (Ferrari like) automobiles engine WA stars
Our good friend Ralph from racetrackralphy.com.au has taken a deep dive into the weekends racing to give us a better understanding and insight into the main races that took place on Saturday.
We saw some stunning racing from Ascot on WA’s racing’s big Railway Stakes Day on Saturday, and worth comparing what Vince Accardi wrote about the two elite winners both before in his Race Speed Profiles via his dailysectionals.com.au service, and what he said today on our Year Round Carnival podcast this morning
The WA Guineas winner via his RSP Saturday morning:
ARCADIA QUEEN: She has had 4 lifetime starts and she is on a very quick back up from last week where she won over this C&D in G3 grade with a very good best of the day 4.4L’s above the IVR BM performance however that was a little down on her previous effort where she placed at ASCT over 1400m in LR grade with a 3rd best of the day 5.8L’s above the IVR BM performance. She was prevented from recording a stronger overall figure last start by a 6.9L’s midrace slowdown and we also noted a little conditioning drop off late, so she is still racing extremely well. She has abundant talent and we may not have seen her ceiling as yet. With a figure anywhere in excess of 5L’s above the IVR BM likely to be required to win here she fits the necessary criteria. She is a serious threat and a rock solid top 3 prospect.
Vince on YRC this morning: “She’s as good as any filly in the country!”
The Railway Stakes winner via his RSP Saturday morning:
GALAXY STAR: She is a tremendously talented mare and last start at ASCT over 1400m in G3 company she won with a new PB and a super strong 9.4L’s above the IVR BM performance. If she repeats that type of effort again here, she will be winning once again. She produced a sustained level of high speed last start with a 3.8L’s above BM 1st section, a 5.9L’s above BM middle section and a 5.9L’s above BM late section also. She has an elite level 400m sprint of anywhere between 8L’s and 10L’s above BM and the step up to 1600m is no issue with her best 1600m run to date was at BLMT where she produced a best of the day 4.9L’s above the IVR BM overall performance which included a scorching 9.4L’s above BM L400m. The 21 days between runs is a positive and she is the logical favourite. Will take some beating.
Vince on YRC: “She’s Cox Plate standard!”
Two dead set Ferrari’s!
Speaking of Ballarat Cup Day, after stewards tweeted on Friday that 35mls of irrigation was applied to the track PRIOR to rain hitting, I knew the track would be a crap-shoot to judge with any confidence Saturday morning, and as such was more than happy to just send out as much information as possible/practical via “Saturday Specials” (example below left and just everything free with the paywall dropped)
What we got was a significant advantage to those near the lead – but not leading/working/greater resistance through damp going – but able to get to CLEARLY the best strip 4-6 horses off the fence.
I’ve took a series of screenshots and tweeted them out this morning
Ballarat Cup day lane winners review using top of the straight screen shots from racing/com stewards vision. Race 1 winner Nariko lane 5 pic.twitter.com/nZCs89S1pM
— ralph horowitz (@rtralphy) November 25, 2018
I welcome anyone looking at that objectively and say that my read was wrong.
It was laughable anyone defending the “fence was ok” just because superior KIWIA and JUNGLE EDGE won there, as equally reckon Usain Bolt could beat Joe Hockey in a slower part of an athletic track!
Here’s the thing:
This time last year something similar happened when Ballarat Cup Day started on officially a “Good 4” but unquestionably at least a “soft 6” before rain hit on the day and the inside completely fell away on what ended up a bog heap as you can see by the last race on the program won by GOT THE GOSS and PROUD WOLF was 2nd in as he was this year in the last race to JUNGLE EDGE
Yet this year if you backed/advantaged in your thinking runners who got back with the exception of Race 9 where (the best horses) BEL SONIC and PLATINUM ANGEL slung into lanes 10 off the rails and leaders both overdid it and (incorrectly) stuck to the rails in the 1100 race https://www.racing.com/form/2018-11-24/sportsbet-ballarat/race/9/resultsyou would have lost and lost badly
Runners like SMART COUPE ($5 to $7 and 9th) VIA BALCIANO ($5:50 and 6th) BIG NIGHT OUT ($5 and 6th) PURE SCOTT ($6 to $9:00 6th) SUPERHARD $4:50 and 4th, LIFE LESS ORDINARY ($8 and 3rd) and STELLAR COLLISION ($9 and 7th) were greatly disadvantaged Saturday, yet a few of those and particularly LIFE LESS ORDINARY would have been fine if it was playing completely inside 10 lanes off like it was the year before
Which leads to
In either staying out or being very wary when facing such an uncertain track!
“Racetrack” Ralphy Horowitz provides independent form analysis via racetrackralphy.com.au. He uses Vince Accardi’s dailysectionals.com.au IVR benchmarking service and together they do the Year Round Carnival podcast https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/year-round-carnival-by-vince-accardi-racetrack-ralphy/id1272190424?mt=2 review of the weekend’s main races every Monday”