Ultimate Class Without Ultimate Class Rating

Michael Kruse / 20 March 2019

Last Updated on 29 December 2022

Classy Without Class & Fly In Fallacy. Again

Each to their own in whatever approach suits the individual, but personally why Vince’s dailysectionals.com.au work resonated with me from day one of working with him was that he just let the clock speak for itself

In a race how fast a horse ran – both overall and in different sections of the race – to me was the most important and logical starting point.

To that end his IVR platform never factors in either the weight a horse carries – for another day! – nor the “class” of the race.

In simple terms if a maiden runs slightly faster than a Group 1 over the same distance on the same card, then the maiden will be given a slightly better figure.

Because it was faster

In a race

We’ve recently seen three big race examples of that with:

1/ DIXIE BLOSSOMS ranked the 4th best winning performance of the 2017 Sydney spring carnival “despite” her win being “only” in a Group 3. Was in agony when she was unlucky beaten at $15 in the – Group 1 – Myer on Derby day two starts later, but for those who kept the faith, you got outstanding odds when she won the Coolmore on Saturday at $21

2/ MYSTIC JOURNEY ranked the 4th best winning performance of the Melbourne 2018 Spring Carnival “despite only” winning a Group 2 before her Australian Guineas and now of course All Star Mile this prep

3/ HARLEM ranked the 5th best winning performance of the 2017 Melbourne Spring Carnival “despite only” winning a Group 3. He of course has gone on two win the next two Australian Cups at monster odds each time.

Once allowances for firm/tailwind etc tracks are made, I can’t see how a horse can fluke running very fast, though as we articulated with both HARLEM below and HAPPY CLAPPER before the All Star/after his 2nd to WINX, it can lead to flat runs going forward

FLY IN FALLACY

For the 2nd time in 53 weeks I was on the wrong end of when a top class “FIFO” jockey got it wrong, though unlike MERCHANT NAVY https://www.racing.com/form/2018-03-10/flemington/race/6 of last year when Chad Schofield wasn’t watching the savage rails bias on the day and was left with zippo when clearly in the wrong part of the track on the day, in the All Star Mile still had MYSTIC JOURNEY on side and HARTNELL was only a “probably” with clear running, but Gawd it would have been nice to find out!

What was clearly was William Buick had plan A, B and C of following HAPPY CLAPPER in the run, but when the Clapper was going nowhere, there was a zig or zag option and he:

A/ Looked inside where better horses were that he had to get through and were less a chance of stopping with the exception of BALF’S CHOICE.

B/ Because outside there were wider horses beyond MYSTIC JOURNEY. However they were 100 to 1+ bolters that a local elite jockey – say Ben Melham or Luke Nolen – would have both known would have dropped off AND been in the better lanes on the track.

Surely once you’re at the top end the degrees of how good a jockey is balanced and “feel” their mounts doesn’t cover local knowledge?

However a week earlier Barend Vorster – gawd bless him – rode the perfect Newmarket winning ride on SUNLIGHT!

We never stop learning. We’ll never get it always beat!

“Racetrack” Ralphy Horowitz provides independent form analysis via racetrackralphy.com.au. He uses Vince Accardi’s dailysectionals.com.au IVR benchmarking service and together they do the Year Round Carnival podcast https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/year-round-carnival-by-vince-accardi-racetrack-ralphy/id1272190424?mt=2 review of the weekend’s main races every Monday”

Michael Kruse
Michael loves all things all horse racing and has been in the game for quite some time. His knowledge in the betting space is second... [Read full bio]

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