St Kilda vs GWS Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 5

St Kilda Saints vs GWS GIANTS Predictions

Game 8 of Round 5 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees St Kilda vs GWS on April 13 at Norwood Oval on Sunday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, and Channel 7. 🏉🔥

Sunday, April 13, 2025

3:20 pm AEDT @ Norwood Oval, Adelaide

Final Score Prediction

Saints

78 : 90

Giants

Win Percentages

St Kilda 45.0%

GWS GIANTS 55.0%

St Kilda

GWS

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for St Kilda Saints set at $2.85, and $1.42 for the GWS GIANTS, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Saints 33.96%
GIANTS 66.04%

Opportunity Bet

The bookies have priced GWS at $1.42, suggesting they win this about 66.04% of the time. But our model pulls that back a bit, giving them a 55% chance. So while the Giants are rightly favourites, they might be just a tad overvalued at those odds.

Now looking at the Saints, they’re paying $2.85 with an implied win chance of just 33.96%. But based on our numbers, they’re actually in with a 45% shot. That’s a pretty decent gap, and one that creates a tidy bit of value if you’re backing the underdog.

In Summary

The betting edge here clearly leans toward St Kilda. Our analysis gives them a much better chance than the bookies are crediting them for, making that $2.85 price look very appealing. If you’re hunting value, the Saints are worth a serious look, even if GWS are still the more likely winners on paper.

What to do?

While statistically St Kilda stack up pretty well against GWS, the reality is that GWS have had a much more difficult run moving into this weeks game, already playing some of the top teams, their average oppositions ladder ranking sits at 7 while St Kilda has had an opposition ladder ranking of 11.

We’re expecting a tight one, the line at 15.5 isn’t a bad shout for the Saints as these two love a game that comes down to a few points.

Suggested Betting Tip:

St Kilda +15.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

GWS @ $1.42 with
Ladbrokes

Winning Margin Bet:

Brisbane 40+ @ $1.53 with
Ladbrokes

OVER/UNDER Bet:

OVER 166.5 @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

St Kilda vs GWS SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: St Kilda: 98.5, GWS: 94.3 – (St Kilda by 4.2 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: St Kilda: 87.8, GWS: 63.3 – (GWS by 24.5 points)
Average Winning Margin: St Kilda: 35.3, GWS: 45.3 – (GWS by 10 points)
Average Losing Margin: St Kilda: 63.0, GWS: 12.0 – (GWS more resilient by 51 points)
HT/FT Double %: St Kilda: 75.0%, GWS: 75.0% – (Even)
Highest Score For: St Kilda: 135, GWS: 132 – (St Kilda by 3 points)
Highest Score Against: St Kilda: 135, GWS: 76 – (GWS by 59 points)
Biggest Win: St Kilda: 82, GWS: 81 – (St Kilda by 1 point)
Biggest Loss: St Kilda: 63, GWS: 12 – (GWS more resilient by 51 points)
Highest Total Match Score: St Kilda: 207, GWS: 183 – (St Kilda by 24 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: St Kilda: 161, GWS: 140 – (St Kilda by 21 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: St Kilda: 59.2%, GWS: 60.4% – (GWS by 1.2%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: St Kilda: 57.3%, GWS: 45.9% – (GWS by 11.4%)
Current Streak: St Kilda: W3, GWS: W1 – (St Kilda momentum)
Current Form: St Kilda: LWWW, GWS: WWLW – (Even)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): St Kilda: 0.0%, GWS: 0.0% – (Even)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): St Kilda: 100.0%, GWS: 100.0% – (Even)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): St Kilda: 0.0%, GWS: 0.0% – (Even)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: GWS won by 1 point (80-79) on 13th April 2024
Previous Encounter: GWS won by 24 points (101-77) on 9th September 2023