Adelaide vs Geelong Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 5

Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats Predictions

Game 1 of Round 5 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees Adelaide vs Geelong on April 10 at Adelaide Oval on Thursday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, and Channel 7. 🏉🔥

Thursday, April 10, 2025

7:40 pm AEDT @ Adelaide Oval, Adelaide

Final Score Prediction

Crows

110 : 89

Cats

Win Percentages

Adelaide Crows 58.5%

Geelong Cats 41.5%

Adelaide

Geelong

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Adelaide Crows set at $1.58, and $2.35 for the Geelong Cats, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Crows 57.85%
Cats 42.15%

Opportunity Bet

Pretty tight between the bookies and our model on this one, the Crows are just slightly more favoured in our numbers (58.5%) compared to the bookies’ 57.85%. Same goes for the Cats, with the bookies giving them a touch more hope than we do.

So, what’s the play here? Well, since our predicted win percentage for the Crows is only a smidge higher than the bookies’, there’s not a massive edge on that front. But if you’re backing Adelaide, $1.58 is pretty fair, it lines up closely with their actual chances of winning.

Geelong at $2.35? That’s not screaming value based on our numbers, since we’re only giving them a 41.5% chance. Unless you reckon they’ll outperform expectations, it’s probably one to steer clear of for now.

In Summary

There’s no standout value bet here, both teams’ odds are pretty much bang-on with their actual chances. Might be one to just enjoy as a fan rather than chase a big edge. That said, Crows by 1-39 sounds like a cracking win if you’re cheering them on!

What to do?

Head to head there’s not much value in the Crows, the Cats on the other hand if you think there is going to be an upset are worth the money. Its always a tight game between the Crows and Cats at Adelaide Oval, Crows line is a pretty good way to go as -9.5 is only a couple of goals, however the better bet is taking them for the 1-39 winning margin.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.25 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

Adelaide (NOT RECOMMENDED) @ $1.58 with
Ladbrokes

Line Bet:

Adelaide -9.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

OVER/UNDER Bet:

TBA @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

Adelaide vs Geelong SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Adelaide: 125.0, Geelong: 96.0 – (Adelaide by 29 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Adelaide: 85.3, Geelong: 70.8 – (Geelong by 14.5 points)
Average Winning Margin: Adelaide: 53.3, Geelong: 58.5 – (Geelong by 5.2 points)
Average Losing Margin: Adelaide: 1.0, Geelong: 8.0 – (Adelaide more resilient by 7 points)
HT/FT Double %: Adelaide: 75.0%, Geelong: 50.0% – (Adelaide by 25%)
Highest Score For: Adelaide: 161, Geelong: 147 – (Adelaide by 14 points)
Highest Score Against: Adelaide: 100, Geelong: 98 – (Geelong by 2 points)
Biggest Win: Adelaide: 63, Geelong: 78 – (Geelong by 15 points)
Biggest Loss: Adelaide: 1, Geelong: 9 – (Adelaide more resilient by 8 points)
Highest Total Match Score: Adelaide: 261, Geelong: 216 – (Adelaide by 45 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Adelaide: 181, Geelong: 131 – (Adelaide by 50 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: Adelaide: 70.6%, Geelong: 64.0% – (Adelaide by 6.6%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: Adelaide: 58.1%, Geelong: 59.4% – (Adelaide by 1.3%)
Current Streak: Adelaide: L1, Geelong: W1 – (Geelong momentum)
Current Form: Adelaide: WWWL, Geelong: WLLW – (Adelaide edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Adelaide: 25.0%, Geelong: 33.3% – (Adelaide by 8.3%)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Adelaide: 75.0%, Geelong: 66.7% – (Adelaide by 8.3%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Adelaide: 0.0%, Geelong: 0.0% – (Even)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Geelong won by 5 points (90-85) on 3rd August 2024
Previous Encounter: Geelong won by 19 points (96-77) on 22nd March 2024