Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 5

Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane Lions Predictions

Game 5 of Round 5 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane on April 12 at Norwood Oval on Saturday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Saturday, April 12, 2025

4:15 pm AEDT @ Norwood Oval, Adelaide

Final Score Prediction

Bulldogs

78 : 95

Lions

Win Percentages

Western Bulldogs 39.0%

Brisbane Lions 61.0%

Bulldogs

Brisbane

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Western Bulldogs set at $2.50, and $1.50 for the Brisbane Lions, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Bulldogs 37.81%
Lions 62.19%

Opportunity Bet

The bookies have the Lions priced at $1.50, which suggests they win this about 62.19% of the time. Our model’s not too far off, sitting at 61%, so there’s no real standout value in jumping on Brisbane at that price, it’s pretty spot on.

The Bulldogs, on the other hand, are priced at $2.50 with a 37.81% implied chance. Our model has them a touch higher at 39%. It’s only a slight difference, but it does offer a teeny bit of value for the Doggies, especially if you think they’ve got it in them to cause an upset.

In Summary

This one’s pretty well priced by the bookies across the board, but if we had to pick a side with a tiny edge, it’d be the Bulldogs. Not a huge gap, but enough to consider if you’re leaning that way anyway. Our prediction still has Brisbane getting up by 17 points, but don’t be shocked if the Doggies make a game of it.

What to do?

Its a tough game this week, the Bulldogs have had a slightly more difficult road heading into this game than the Lions, however, this doesn’t affect the stats too much. At Norwood Oval neither team has a fair advantage so this one will simply come down to how well both teams play on the day. Bulldogs are one of the few teams that have the potential to outshine the Lions at the moment so this one really could come down to the wire.

Best bet is the Western Bulldogs on the line is the best way to go with this one.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Western Bulldogs +11.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

Brisbane @ $1.50 with
Ladbrokes

Winning Margin Bet:

Brisbane 1-39 @ $2.15 with
Ladbrokes

OVER/UNDER Bet:

OVER 171.5 @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Western Bulldogs: 86.8, Brisbane: 92.0 – (Brisbane by 5.2 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Western Bulldogs: 86.3, Brisbane: 77.0 – (Brisbane by 9.3 points)
Average Winning Margin: Western Bulldogs: 12.0, Brisbane: 15.0 – (Brisbane by 3 points)
Average Losing Margin: Western Bulldogs: 11.0, Brisbane: N/A – (Brisbane edge)
HT/FT Double %: Western Bulldogs: 25.0%, Brisbane: 25.0% – (Even)
Highest Score For: Western Bulldogs: 113, Brisbane: 118 – (Brisbane by 5 points)
Highest Score Against: Western Bulldogs: 97, Brisbane: 90 – (Brisbane by 7 points)
Biggest Win: Western Bulldogs: 16, Brisbane: 28 – (Brisbane by 12 points)
Biggest Loss: Western Bulldogs: 16, Brisbane: N/A – (Brisbane edge)
Highest Total Match Score: Western Bulldogs: 210, Brisbane: 208 – (Western Bulldogs by 2 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Western Bulldogs: 146, Brisbane: 131 – (Brisbane by 15 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: Western Bulldogs: 63.0%, Brisbane: 60.0% – (Western Bulldogs by 3%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: Western Bulldogs: 57.5%, Brisbane: 61.6% – (Western Bulldogs by 4.1%)
Current Streak: Western Bulldogs: L1, Brisbane: W4 – (Brisbane momentum)
Current Form: Western Bulldogs: WLWL, Brisbane: WWWW – (Brisbane edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Western Bulldogs: 50.0%, Brisbane: 0.0% – (Brisbane by 50%)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Western Bulldogs: 50.0%, Brisbane: 100.0% – (Brisbane by 50%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Western Bulldogs: 50.0%, Brisbane: 100.0% – (Brisbane by 50%)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Brisbane won by 43 points (114-71) on 7th June 2024
Previous Encounter: Western Bulldogs won by 14 points (67-53) on 30th March 2023