Collingwood vs Sydney Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 5

Collingwood Magpies vs Sydney Swans Predictions

Game 2 of Round 5 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees Collingwood vs Sydney on April 11 at Adelaide Oval on Friday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, and Channel 7. 🏉🔥

Friday, April 11, 2025

7:40 pm AEDT @ Adelaide Oval, Adelaide

Final Score Prediction

Magpies

71 : 85

Swans

Model Win Percentages

Collingwood 54.5%

Sydney Swans 45.5%

Collingwood

Sydney

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Collingwood Magpies set at $1.68, and $2.20 for the Sydney Swans, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Magpies 58.70%
Swans 41.30%

Opportunity Bet

According to the bookies, the Magpies are sitting at $1.62, which implies they win this 58.7% of the time. But based on our numbers, we’ve only got them at a 54.5% chance, so the value isn’t really there for backing Collingwood at that price.

Now flip it to the Swans. The bookies reckon they’ve only got a 41.3% shot at the win, but our model gives them a stronger 45.5% chance. That gap might not seem huge, but it’s just enough to open the door for a value play. At $2.20, there’s a little bit of juice in backing Sydney if our model’s on the money.

In Summary

The betting edge here leans toward the Sydney Swans. While Collingwood are rightly favourites, the bookies might be underrating the Swans just a tad. If our analysis is on point, that $2.20 for Sydney represents a sneaky bit of value worth considering.

What to do?

Here’s where it gets really interesting, while our prediction model leans in favour of Collingwood taking the crown this week, Sydney has been playing teams with an average ladder ranking of 7.5 while Collingwood has been playing teams with an average ranking of 10.5, Sydney has had a tougher road leading into this match leading to a slightly biased statistical edge towards the Magpies. Best bets this week sway towards the Swannies, and with all recent games falling in the 1-39 margin, its a sound bet.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Sydney 1-39 @ $2.70 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

Sydney @ $2.20 with
Ladbrokes

Line Bet:

Sydney +6.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

OVER/UNDER Bet:

UNDER 171.5 @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

Collingwood vs Sydney SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Collingwood: 81.8, Sydney: 85.8 – (Sydney by 4 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Collingwood: 66.3, Sydney: 74.8 – (Collingwood by 8.5 points)
Average Winning Margin: Collingwood: 38.0, Sydney: 34.0 – (Collingwood by 4 points)
Average Losing Margin: Collingwood: 52.0, Sydney: 12.0 – (Sydney more resilient by 40 points)
HT/FT Double %: Collingwood: 25.0%, Sydney: 25.0% – (Even)
Highest Score For: Collingwood: 136, Sydney: 117 – (Collingwood by 19 points)
Highest Score Against: Collingwood: 104, Sydney: 96 – (Collingwood by 8 points)
Biggest Win: Collingwood: 91, Sydney: 65 – (Collingwood by 26 points)
Biggest Loss: Collingwood: 52, Sydney: 20 – (Sydney more resilient by 32 points)
Highest Total Match Score: Collingwood: 181, Sydney: 172 – (Collingwood by 9 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Collingwood: 109, Sydney: 133 – (Collingwood by 24 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: Collingwood: 47.4%, Sydney: 59.5% – (Sydney by 12.1%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: Collingwood: 50.7%, Sydney: 55.8% – (Collingwood by 5.1%)
Current Streak: Collingwood: W3, Sydney: W2 – (Collingwood momentum)
Current Form: Collingwood: LWWW, Sydney: LLWW – (Collingwood edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Collingwood: 0.0%, Sydney: 50.0% – (Collingwood by 50%)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Collingwood: 100.0%, Sydney: 50.0% – (Collingwood by 50%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Collingwood: 66.7%, Sydney: 50.0% – (Collingwood by 16.7%)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Sydney won by 3 points (89-86) on 9th August 2024
Previous Encounter: Sydney won by 33 points (102-69) on 15th March 2024