Melbourne vs Essendon Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 5

Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers Predictions

Game 6 of Round 5 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees Melbourne vs Essendon on April 12 at Adelaide Oval on Saturday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Saturday, April 12, 2025

7:35 pm AEDT @ Adelaide Oval, Adelaide

Final Score Prediction

Demons

76 : 99

Bombers

Win Percentages

Melbourne 41.5%

Essendon 58.5%

Melbourne

Essendon

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Melbourne Demons set at $1.96, and $1.85 for the Essendon Bombers, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Demons 48.56%
Bombers 51.44%

Opportunity Bet

The bookies have this one nearly dead even, with Essendon just edging it in the odds at $1.85. That price suggests they’ve got a 51.44% chance of winning. But based on our numbers, the Bombers are looking even stronger we’ve got them at 58.5% to take the chocolates.

So what does that mean? It means there’s value in backing Essendon. The bookies are underestimating their chances just a touch, and at $1.85, there’s a solid edge there if our model is on point.

On the flip side, Melbourne are slightly overvalued. They’re paying $1.96, but our model reckons they’re only winning 41.5% of the time, so not a lot of value there unless you’re backing them for emotional reasons.

In Summary

This match-up offers a clear betting edge with Essendon. Our prediction gives them a stronger chance than the bookies are offering, making that $1.85 price tag look like decent value. If you’re chasing a smart play, the Bombers look like the go.

What to do?

Melbourne has had a slightly harder road heading into this game with an average opposition ladder ranking of 9.25 compared to Essendon’s 10.5, were looking at a tight game this week which slightly favours Essendon at Adelaide Oval, Unfortunately the line is nothing to scream about at 1.5 so it’s not really worth going for unless you want to throw it in a multi, best move forward is Essendon winning margin 1-39.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Essendon 1-39 @ $2.35 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

Essendon @ $1.85 with
Ladbrokes

Line Bet:

Essendon +1.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

OVER/UNDER Bet:

OVER 168.5 @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

Melbourne vs Essendon SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Melbourne: 62.0, Essendon: 85.7 – (Essendon by 23.7 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Melbourne: 101.8, Essendon: 110.7 – (Melbourne by 8.9 points)
Average Winning Margin: Melbourne: N/A, Essendon: 12.0 – (Essendon edge)
Average Losing Margin: Melbourne: 39.8, Essendon: 43.5 – (Melbourne more resilient by 3.7 points)
HT/FT Double %: Melbourne: 0.0%, Essendon: 0.0% – (Even)
Highest Score For: Melbourne: 74, Essendon: 100 – (Essendon by 26 points)
Highest Score Against: Melbourne: 125, Essendon: 161 – (Melbourne by 36 points)
Biggest Win: Melbourne: N/A, Essendon: 12 – (Essendon edge)
Biggest Loss: Melbourne: 59, Essendon: 61 – (Melbourne more resilient by 2 points)
Highest Total Match Score: Melbourne: 191, Essendon: 261 – (Essendon by 70 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Melbourne: 131, Essendon: 132 – (Essendon by 1 point)
Goal Accuracy For %: Melbourne: 47.2%, Essendon: 54.5% – (Essendon by 7.3%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: Melbourne: 61.2%, Essendon: 64.9% – (Melbourne by 3.7%)
Current Streak: Melbourne: L4, Essendon: W1 – (Essendon momentum)
Current Form: Melbourne: LLLL, Essendon: LLW – (Essendon edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Melbourne: 0.0%, Essendon: 0.0% – (Even)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Melbourne: 0.0%, Essendon: 0.0% – (Even)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Melbourne: 0.0%, Essendon: 33.3% – (Essendon by 33.3%)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Melbourne won by 17 points (84-67) on 13th July 2024
Previous Encounter: Essendon won by 27 points (104-77) on 15th April 2023