North Melbourne vs Gold Coast Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 5

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Gold Coast SUNS Predictions

Game 3 of Round 5 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees North Melbourne vs Gold Coast on April 12 at Barossa Park on Saturday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Saturday, April 12, 2025

12:35 pm AEDT @ Barossa Park, Lyndoch

Final Score Prediction

Kangaroos

72 : 121

Suns

Win Percentages

North Melbourne 34.5%

Gold Coast SUNS 65.5%

Kangaroos

SUNS

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for North Melbourne Kangaroos set at $3.80, and $1.26 for the Gold Coast SUNS, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Kangaroos 24.91%
SUNS 75.09%

Opportunity Bet

The Betting Edge

The Suns are clear favourites, no argument there, but the bookies might be laying it on a bit thick. They’ve got the Suns winning this 75.09% of the time, while our numbers suggest it’s more like 65.5%. Still strong, but not *that* strong.

Now here’s where it gets interesting, the Kangaroos. The bookies have priced them like they’ve got almost no chance (just 24.91%), but our model gives them a 34.5% shot. That’s a decent jump. And at $3.80 odds, there’s some sneaky value sitting there for anyone brave enough to back the underdog.

In Summary

While the Suns should get the job done, there’s a bit of a betting edge in favour of North Melbourne. Our numbers say they’ve got a better shot than the bookies are giving them credit for, making that $3.80 looks pretty tasty. If you’re keen on chasing value and don’t mind a bit of risk, the Roos might just be worth a cheeky punt.

What to do?

Unfortunately North Melbournes line is +24.5 which isn’t really enough to our confidence towards a handicap win, while only playing three games so far Gold Coast have had the toughest road so far this season with an average opposition ladder ranking of 4.25, comparable to North Melbourne having one of the easiest runs at 11.5 and sitting uncomfortably in 13th.

Unless by some miracle North Melbourne does manage to claw its way up for a win this week there is basically a guaranteed win this week for the SUNS, expect a blowout, GWS should be looking at the 40+ winning margin.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Gold Coast 40+ @ $2.65 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

Gold Coast (NO VALUE) @ $1.26 with
Ladbrokes

Line Bet:

Sydney -24.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

OVER/UNDER Bet:

OVER 180.5 @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

North Melbourne vs Gold Coast SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: North Melbourne: 88.0, Gold Coast: 115.7 – (Gold Coast by 27.7 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: North Melbourne: 102.5, Gold Coast: 67.0 – (Gold Coast by 35.5 points)
Average Winning Margin: North Melbourne: 59.0, Gold Coast: 48.7 – (North Melbourne by 10.3 points)
Average Losing Margin: North Melbourne: 39.0, Gold Coast: N/A – (Gold Coast edge)
HT/FT Double %: North Melbourne: 25.0%, Gold Coast: 66.7% – (Gold Coast by 41.7%)
Highest Score For: North Melbourne: 125, Gold Coast: 136 – (Gold Coast by 11 points)
Highest Score Against: North Melbourne: 117, Gold Coast: 90 – (Gold Coast by 27 points)
Biggest Win: North Melbourne: 59, Gold Coast: 87 – (Gold Coast by 28 points)
Biggest Loss: North Melbourne: 65, Gold Coast: N/A – (Gold Coast edge)
Highest Total Match Score: North Melbourne: 210, Gold Coast: 185 – (North Melbourne by 25 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: North Melbourne: 169, Gold Coast: 181 – (North Melbourne by 12 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: North Melbourne: 67.9%, Gold Coast: 59.3% – (North Melbourne by 8.6%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: North Melbourne: 61.0%, Gold Coast: 58.0% – (Gold Coast by 3.0%)
Current Streak: North Melbourne: L2, Gold Coast: W3 – (Gold Coast momentum)
Current Form: North Melbourne: LWLL, Gold Coast: WWW – (Gold Coast edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): North Melbourne: 0.0%, Gold Coast: 0.0% – (Even)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): North Melbourne: 100.0%, Gold Coast: 100.0% – (Even)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): North Melbourne: 0.0%, Gold Coast: 100.0% – (Gold Coast by 100%)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: North Melbourne won by 4 points (87-83) on 6th July 2024
Previous Encounter: Gold Coast won by 68 points (120-52) on 11th May 2024