Carlton vs West Coast Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 5

Carlton Blues vs West Coast Eagles Predictions

Game 4 of Round 5 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees Carlton vs West Coast on April 12 at Adelaide Oval on Saturday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Saturday, April 12, 2025

1:20 pm AEDT @ Adelaide Oval, Adelaide

Final Score Prediction

Blues

100 : 62

Eagles

Win Percentages

Carlton 70.0%

West Coast Eagles 30.0%

Carlton

West Coast

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Carlton Blues set at $1.16, and $5.25 for the West Coast Eagles, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Blues 79.96%
Eagles 20.04%

Opportunity Bet

The Blues are clear favourites and rightfully so, our model gives them a solid 70% chance of taking the win. But the bookies are even more confident, pricing them like they win this almost 80% of the time. That’s a bit of an oversell.

Now, on to the Eagles. The bookies reckon they’ve only got a 20.04% shot, but our numbers put them up at 30%. That’s a fair jump, and when you match that with a juicy $5.25 price, there’s actually some decent value in backing the underdog here.

In Summary

Even though the Blues are expected to win (and by a good margin), the value edge lies with West Coast. Our model suggests they’ve got a better crack at causing an upset than the odds suggest, making that $5.25 price worth a cheeky look for those chasing a high-return play.

What to do?

The edge might lie with West Coast but realistically, any smart punter knows they are not a value bet. Since 2022 Carlton has been beating West Coast by more than 40 points. West Coast has had the easiest run of any team coming into this weeks game with an average opponent ladder ranking of 13, while Carlton has been playing teams with an average ladder ranking of 9.5 meaning they have been playing significantly harder teams.

The Line is high this week at 34.5, but it shouldn’t be enough to get West Coast over the edge, best bet this week is the Blue boys with a 40+ winning margin, on the nose is a teeny $1.16, and the winning margin only just comes out as the best bet at 2.02.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Carlton 40+ @ $2.02 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

Carlton (NO VALUE) @ $1.16 with
Ladbrokes

Line Bet:

Carlton -34.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

OVER/UNDER Bet:

UNDER 175.5 @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

Carlton vs Wests Coast SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Carlton: 62.5, West Coast: 60.8 – (Carlton by 1.7 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Carlton: 77.0, West Coast: 117.0 – (Carlton by 40 points)
Average Winning Margin: Carlton: N/A, West Coast: N/A – (N/A)
Average Losing Margin: Carlton: 14.5, West Coast: 56.3 – (Carlton more resilient by 41.8 points)
HT/FT Double %: Carlton: 0.0%, West Coast: 0.0% – (Even)
Highest Score For: Carlton: 75, West Coast: 75 – (Even)
Highest Score Against: Carlton: 83, West Coast: 136 – (Carlton by 53 points)
Biggest Win: Carlton: N/A, West Coast: N/A – (N/A)
Biggest Loss: Carlton: 20, West Coast: 87 – (Carlton more resilient by 67 points)
Highest Total Match Score: Carlton: 158, West Coast: 185 – (West Coast by 27 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Carlton: 109, West Coast: 169 – (Carlton by 60 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: Carlton: 47.9%, West Coast: 54.7% – (West Coast by 6.8%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: Carlton: 59.2%, West Coast: 62.2% – (Carlton by 3.0%)
Current Streak: Carlton: L4, West Coast: L4 – (Even)
Current Form: Carlton: LLLL, West Coast: LLLL – (Even)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Carlton: 100.0%, West Coast: 100.0% – (Even)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Carlton: 0.0%, West Coast: 0.0% – (Even)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Carlton: 0.0%, West Coast: 0.0% – (Even)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Carlton won by 65 points (99-34) on 18th August 2024
Previous Encounter: Carlton won by 71 points (140-69) on 22nd July 2023