Melbourne vs Richmond Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 7

Melbourne Demons vs Richmond Tigers Predictions

Game 1 of Round 7 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees Melbourne vs Richmond on April 24 at the MCG on Thursday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, & Channel 7. 🏉🔥

Thursday, April 24, 2025

7:30 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne

Final Prediction

Demons

62 : 55

Tigers

Win Percentages

Melbourne 52.30%

Richmond 47.70%

Melbourne

Richmond

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Melbourne Demons set at $1.30, and $3.55 for the Richmond Tigers, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Demons 73.23%
Richmond 26.77%

Opportunity Bet

The bookies are heavily favouring the Demons, giving them over a 73% chance of winning. But based on our model, this match-up is far tighter, with Melbourne at 52.30%, and Richmond hot on their heels at 47.70%.

That creates a serious value gap on Richmond. The market’s way underestimating them, and if our read is right, the Tigers should be closer to $2.10, not the $3.55 that Unibet’s offering. That’s a cracking bit of overs.

Power Rankings Breakdown

Let’s talk rankings. Across the board, Richmond actually come out ahead in most of the key areas:

Overall Power Ranking: Richmond 11th vs Melbourne 13th
Score Rank: Richmond 7th vs Melbourne 16th
Balanced Power Score: Richmond 9th vs Melbourne 13th
Points For Per Match: Richmond 16th vs Melbourne 15th (pretty tight, but both low)
Points Conceded Per Match: Richmond 18th vs Melbourne 15th (both struggling)
Win % Rank: Both teams sitting at 15th
Total Power Rank Score: Richmond 12.67 vs Melbourne 14.50

What to do?

While the Dees have home advantage, the numbers suggest Richmond have the edge across a few key metrics, especially when it comes to scoring potential and overall balance. So despite what the odds say, this one’s far from one-sided.

All things considered, the Tigers are offering excellent value here. The market’s sleeping on Richmond, and our power rankings and win probabilities both support a much closer contest than the odds suggest. At $3.55, the Tigers are a strong underdog play with genuine upside.

The Line on this game is obscenely big for these two teams, play it safe and take Richmond +23.5.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Richmond +23.5 @ $1.92 with
Unibet

H-2-H Bet:

Melbourne @ $1.28 with
Unibet

Winning Margin Bet:

Melbourne 1-39 @ $1.40 with
Unibet

OVER/UNDER Bet:

UNDER 175.5 @ $1.90 with
Unibet

Melbourne vs Richmond SGM