Richmond vs St Kilda Prediction

RICHMOND VS ST KILDA: SAINTS SET TO FEAST AT THE ‘G

Home • $3.60

Away • $1.29

Saturday • MCG • TBC

Is there a more one-sided recent rivalry in the AFL right now? St Kilda have absolutely owned Richmond lately, and after watching both teams last week, I’m struggling to see how the Tigers turn this around on Saturday arvo.

The Saints demolished Richmond by 82 points in last year’s Maddie’s Match – a 14-goals-to-2 demolition after half-time that saw Jack Sinclair rack up a career-high 40 disposals.

Fast forward to last weekend: St Kilda gritted out a 9-point win over North Melbourne while Richmond copped another heavy loss, going down to Gold Coast by 84 points.

The betting markets have the Saints as heavy favourites, and for once, I reckon they’ve got it spot on.

KRUZEY’S TIPS

After crunching the numbers on this one, the value is all with St Kilda to cover what looks like a generous line.

The 22.5-point spread actually feels conservative when you consider Richmond are averaging just 57 points per game across their last five matches.

Meanwhile, the Saints have found their groove at the right time of the season, and their recent form suggests they’ll handle Richmond’s young brigade comfortably.

BEST BET

LINE BETTING

St Kilda -22.5

$1.90

BET NOW

VALUE BET

Under 161.5 Total Points

$1.88

BET NOW

SMART HEDGE

St Kilda Head-to-Head

$1.29

BET NOW

All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

Here’s where the data gets really interesting. Our model has been tracking both teams’ scoring patterns all season, and the numbers paint a clear picture. Richmond’s attack has completely fallen apart – they’re now the lowest-scoring team in the competition over their last five games. Add in St Kilda’s defensive improvements, and this shapes as a low-scoring Saints win.

Our Data Says: Richmond 66, St Kilda 72 (based on season averages adjusted for recent form)

That gives Richmond a 45.5% win chance, St Kilda 54.5%

Bookmakers have Richmond at $3.60 (28% implied) vs St Kilda at $1.29 (77% implied)

The Market Edge: The bookies have overreacted to Richmond’s recent form – our model shows value in the total points market where the under looks solid

Our Prediction

RIC 66 | STK 72

Win Probability

RIC 45.5% | STK 54.5%

Market Edge

18%

on Richmond

FORM LINE

Look, I’ve been tracking Richmond’s slide all season, and these last five games have been brutal to watch – and bet on.

The Tigers have managed just two wins from their last five, scraping past West Coast in Perth before getting thumped by Geelong (by 72), Collingwood (by 36) and Gold Coast (by 84).

They’re averaging a measly 57 points during this stretch, well below their season average of 70.

St Kilda’s form reads much better – two wins from five including that gutsy victory over Melbourne two weeks back.

More importantly, they’ve been competitive in every loss, going down by single digits to Sydney and keeping it respectable against Geelong and Hawthorn.

Richmond Tigers

W L L L W

Defeated West Coast in Perth
Lost to Geelong by 72 points
Lost to Collingwood by 36 points
Lost to Gold Coast by 84 points
Additional recent win

St Kilda Saints

W L L W L

Beat North Melbourne by 9 points
Lost narrowly to Sydney
Lost respectably to Geelong
Defeated Melbourne in a gutsy effort
Close loss to Hawthorn

KEY STATS

The statistical gap between these sides right now is massive, and it all starts with ball movement.

St Kilda are averaging 48.7 inside-50s per game compared to Richmond’s 44 – that’s nearly five extra scoring chances every match.

The clearance battle tells an even clearer story: Saints winning 38 per contest while Richmond manage just 32.9.

But here’s the killer stat that caught my eye – St Kilda are converting at 24% inside 50 (11.8 goals from 48.7 entries) while Richmond sit at just 20% (8.8 from 44).

When you’re getting fewer chances AND converting worse, that’s a recipe for heavy defeats.

INSIDE-50s PER GAME

St Kilda
48.7

Richmond
44

CLEARANCES PER GAME

St Kilda
38

Richmond
32.9

GOALS PER INSIDE-50 (%)

St Kilda
24

Richmond
20