Richmond vs Geelong Prediction

Will Richmond’s MCG Fortress Hold Against Rampaging Cats?

Home • $16.00

Away • $1.01

Saturday • MCG • Patchy rain

Here’s the brutal reality – Richmond have lost four of their last five games, while Geelong have won their last five on the trot.

The Tigers are averaging just 64.8 points in their recent outings, while the Cats have been putting teams to the sword with 127.2 points per game during their winning streak.

>When you add in the patchy rain forecast for Saturday afternoon at the ‘G, this shapes up as a fascinating betting puzzle. Let me break down where the smart money sits.

KRUZEY’S TIPS

Our model: Richmond 36.26% chance to win

Market odds: $16.00 (6.25% implied)

Edge: +30.01 percentage points – massive overlay on the Tigers

Recommendation: This edge is too good to be true – likely a market error

After crunching the numbers properly:

Geelong’s 63.74% win chance suggests fair odds around $1.57

Current $1.01 implies 99.01% win probability

The market’s overreacted to recent form

BEST BET

LINE BETTING

Richmond +60.5

$1.90

BET NOW

VALUE BET

Richmond $16.00 head-to-head

$16.00

BET NOW

SMART HEDGE

Geelong 1-39

$3.25

BET NOW

All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

Our Data Says: Richmond 62, Geelong 109 (based on weighted average of season stats and recent form)

That gives Richmond a 36.26% win chance, Geelong 63.74%

Bookmakers have Richmond at $16.00 (6.25% implied) vs Geelong at $1.01 (99.01% implied)

The Market Edge: The 60.5-point line offers genuine value.

Our 47-point margin prediction means Richmond cover this spread 58% of the time. At $1.90 (52.6% implied), that’s a +5.4 percentage point edge in our favour.

Our Prediction

RIC 62 | GEE 109

Win Probability

RIC 36.26% | GEE 63.74%

Market Edge

30.01%

on Richmond

FORM LINE

Richmond’s recent form makes for grim reading – four losses from their last five, with their only win coming against lowly West Coast in Perth.

They’ve averaged just 64.8 points while conceding 89.4 during this stretch, well below their season average of 8.9 goals per game. The 48-point loss to North Melbourne last week was particularly concerning, with the Tigers managing just 13.9 (87) despite Harry Sheezel’s record-equalling 54-disposal game for the Roos.

Geelong are firing on all cylinders with five straight wins, averaging 127.2 points during this purple patch.

They’ve beaten quality opposition too – dismantling Sydney by 43 points at the SCG, thumping Port Adelaide by 88 points, and putting Melbourne to the sword by 101. The Cats are scoring 18.6 goals per game in their last five, well above their season average of 15.5 goals.

Richmond Tigers

LLLWL

Richmond’s recent form makes for grim reading – four losses from their last five, with their only win coming against lowly West Coast in Perth.

Geelong Cats

WWWWW

Geelong are firing on all cylinders with five straight wins, averaging 127.2 points during this purple patch.

KEY STATS

The statistical gulf between these teams is stark. Geelong average 15.5 goals per game to Richmond’s 8.9 – that’s a 40-point differential right there.

The Cats dominate the key indicators too: +12.2 in inside 50s (56 to 43.8), +4.3 in clearances (37.7 to 33.4), and +11.2 in contested possessions (132.6 to 121.4).

Most tellingly, Richmond’s disposal efficiency sits at 72.4% compared to Geelong’s 72.6% – virtually identical.

But the Cats get far more opportunities with the ball, averaging significantly more disposals per game.

When you combine superior ball-winning with equal efficiency, the result is predictable.

GOALS PER GAME

Geelong
15.5

Richmond
8.9

INSIDE 50S

Geelong
56

Richmond
43.8

CLEARANCES

Geelong
37.7

Richmond
33.4