Hawthorn vs Collingwood Prediction

Hawks-Pies Rivalry Heats Up as Finals Pressure Mounts at the MCG

Home • $2.30

Away • $1.62

Thursday night • MCG • Patchy Rain Forecast

The MCG lights will shine bright on Thursday night as two traditional rivals clash with very different finals equations on the line.

Hawthorn desperately need the four points to keep their September hopes alive, while Collingwood look to solidify their top-four credentials after a wobbling month of footy.

Last time these two met back in Round 12, Jamie Elliott torched the Hawks with five goals in a 51-point demolition that saw Jack Ginnivan cop it from both sides after his theatrical celebrations.

The Pies’ manic third-quarter pressure (28-8 in tackles) broke that game wide open, something punters would be wise to remember.

Both teams stumbled last week – Collingwood copped a hiding from Brisbane at home (65-92), while Hawthorn blew a 26-point quarter-time lead to lose to Adelaide by 14.

With patchy rain forecast and both teams leaking points recently, this shapes as a fascinating betting puzzle.

KRUZEY’S TIPS

After crunching these numbers, I’m seeing clear value in the unders market.

Both teams have defensive issues but the weather forecast combined with their recent struggles to maintain scoring momentum has me leaning conservative.

The Hawks at home with the points also caught my eye – they’ve been competitive in losses and Collingwood’s clearance work has been shaky.

BEST BET

Under 160.5 Total Points

$1.88

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VALUE BET

Hawthorn +7.5

$1.90

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SMART HEDGE

Collingwood 1-39

$3.20

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All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

Look, the data’s telling an interesting story here. Our model has this as a nail-biter with Collingwood scraping home by a single point. But here’s where it gets juicy – the bookies have overcooked the Pies’ chances based on reputation rather than recent form.

Our Data Says: Hawthorn 83, Collingwood 84 (based on season averages adjusted for recent form)

That gives Hawthorn a 46.7% win chance, Collingwood 53.3%

Bookmakers have Hawthorn at $2.30 (43.5% implied) vs Collingwood at $1.62 (61.7% implied)

The Market Edge: Hawks offer a 3.2% edge – our 46.7% vs market’s 43.5% implied chance

Our Prediction

HAW 83 | COL 84

Win Probability

HAW 46.7% | COL 53.3%

Market Edge

3.2%

on Hawthorn

FORM LINE

I’ve been tracking both teams’ recent form and it’s not pretty reading for either set of fans. Hawthorn have won 3 of their last 5, with wins against Adelaide, Carlton and St Kilda showing their competitiveness.

More worrying is their scoring – they’re averaging just 83.4 points across this stretch, well down on their season average.

Collingwood’s form line (2-3 last five) masks bigger concerns. They’ve dropped 3 of their last 4 against top-eight sides, and that clearance differential has been brutal when the heat’s on.

Losing to Gold Coast and Fremantle by single figures suggests they’re vulnerable against teams that bring the pressure.

Hawthorn Hawks

WWLWL

Hawthorn have won 3 of their last 5, with wins against Adelaide, Carlton and St Kilda showing their competitiveness.
More worrying is their scoring – they’re averaging just 83.4 points across this stretch, well down on their season average.

Collingwood Magpies

WLLWL

Collingwood’s form line (2-3 last five) masks bigger concerns.
They’ve dropped 3 of their last 4 against top-eight sides, and that clearance differential has been brutal when the heat’s on.
Losing to Gold Coast and Fremantle by single figures suggests they’re vulnerable against teams that bring the pressure.

KEY STATS

The season averages reveal why this shapes as such a tight contest. Both teams average 13 goals per game, but it’s the defensive numbers that jump out.

Hawthorn are slightly more efficient with the ball (72.5% vs 71.9%) while the Hawks hold a slim edge in contested possessions (134.1 to 128.5).

Here’s the kicker though – inside 50s are dead even at 53.1 entries each per game. When two evenly matched teams meet in wet conditions, that line of 7.5 points starts looking very generous.

The clearance battle (Hawks 37.3 vs Pies 36.2) could decide this one.

DISPOSAL EFFICIENCY

Hawthorn
72.5%

Collingwood
71.9%

CONTESTED POSSESSIONS

Hawthorn
134.1

Collingwood
128.5

INSIDE 50s

Hawthorn
53.1

Collingwood
53.1

CLEARANCES

Hawthorn
37.3

Collingwood
36.2

GOALS PER GAME

Hawthorn
13

Collingwood
13

THE FINAL WORD

Everything points to a grinding, low-scoring affair at the MCG. The Hawks’ desperation for finals, combined with Collingwood’s recent vulnerability against physical sides, sets up perfectly for an upset. But let’s be realistic – the smart money’s on the under given the weather forecast and both teams’ recent defensive lapses.

My main play remains the Under 160.5 at $1.88. With rain about and both teams struggling to maintain four-quarter efforts, I’m expecting a scrappy contest that falls well short of that total. If you’re feeling brave, the Hawks with a 7.5-point start offers sneaky value in what should be a thriller under lights.

LOCK IT IN: Under 160.5 Total Points @ $1.88

Under 160.5 Total Points in Hawthorn vs Collingwood

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