Geelong vs Essendon Prediction

Cats to Feast on Struggling Bombers at the Cattery

Home • $1.01

Away • $16.00

Friday Night • GMHBA Stadium • Clear

After watching Essendon cop hiding after hiding over the past month, I’m genuinely curious if the bookies have lost their minds offering $16 for a Bombers win.

Sure, Geelong as short as $1.01 favourites feels extreme, but when you dig into these numbers, you’ll see why I’m loading up on the Cats despite the skinny odds.

The last time these sides met in Round 14, Jeremy Cameron put on an absolute clinic with 6 goals as Geelong demolished the Bombers by 95 points.

That 23.13 (151) scoreline was the Cats’ season-high, and with Bailey Smith returning to rack up 41 touches and 760 metres gained, it was men against boys.

Fast forward to now – Geelong just pumped Port Adelaide by 88 points with Cameron bagging another 6 majors, while Essendon’s lost their last five straight, averaging just 54 points per game.

This Friday night at GMHBA Stadium shapes up as another Cats procession.

KRUZEY’S TIPS

Look, I know backing $1.01 favourites isn’t sexy, but there’s smart money to be made here if you know where to look.

The 67.5-point line initially scared me off, but after crunching these numbers and seeing Essendon’s complete offensive meltdown, I’m all over it.

The total at 180.5 also catches my eye – these teams combined for 246 points last time, and while I expect another Cats romp, the Bombers’ scoring woes should keep this under.

BEST BET

LINE BETTING

Geelong -67.5

$1.90

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VALUE BET

Under 180.5 Total Points

$1.88

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SMART HEDGE

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All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

After running the numbers through our model, I’m seeing a closer contest than the massive spread suggests.

The data’s painting a picture of a Geelong win, but the market may have gone too far with this line.

Our Data Says: Geelong 88, Essendon 69 (based on season averages adjusted for recent form)

That gives Geelong a 67.1% win chance, Essendon 32.9%

Bookmakers have Geelong at $1.01 (99% implied) vs Essendon at $16.00 (6.25% implied)

The Market Edge: While the head-to-head offers no value, our 19-point margin prediction suggests the 67.5-point line is way too high – take Essendon with the massive head start

Our Prediction

GEE 88 | ESS 69

Win Probability

GEE 67.1% | ESS 32.9%

Market Edge

27%

on Essendon Bombers

FORM LINE

I’ve been tracking both teams closely, and the contrast couldn’t be starker.

Geelong’s won 4 of their last 5, averaging a ridiculous 125 points per game in that stretch.

Their only loss came against GWS in Round 17, but they bounced back with three straight wins by an average margin of 77 points – that’s not a typo.

Essendon’s form line reads like a horror story: five straight losses, managing just 271 total points across those games.

They’ve been held under 60 points in four of those five matches, with their 74-point effort against Gold Coast in Round 16 their only semi-respectable showing.

The 50 points they managed against the Bulldogs in Round 20 was particularly alarming – at home, perfect conditions, and they still couldn’t crack 50.

Geelong Cats

WLWWW

Won 4 of their last 5
Averaging 125 points per game
Three straight wins by 77-point average margin

Essendon Bombers

LLLLL

Five straight losses
Held under 60 points in four of last five
Managed just 271 points across five games

KEY STATS

The statistical gap between these sides is genuinely staggering.

Geelong’s averaging 15.6 goals per game this season compared to Essendon’s 9.6 – that’s a 36-point difference right there.

The Cats are also dominating the territory battle, averaging 56.3 inside 50s to the Bombers’ 47.4, which explains why Cameron and company are feasting every week.

What really caught my eye? Despite all their struggles, Essendon actually has better disposal efficiency at 73.5% compared to Geelong’s 72.7%.

Problem is, efficiency means nothing when you can’t get your hands on the footy – the Cats lead in clearances (38.1 to 35.4) and contested possessions (133.5 to 127.8), controlling the game from the source.

GOALS PER GAME

Geelong
15.6

Essendon
9.6

INSIDE 50s

Geelong
56.3

Essendon
47.4

DISPOSAL EFFICIENCY %

Essendon
73.5

Geelong
72.7

CLEARANCES

Geelong
38.1

Essendon
35.4

CONTESTED POSSESSIONS

Geelong
133.5

Essendon
127.8

THE FINAL WORD

Sometimes the obvious play is the right play, and this shapes up as one of those times.

Geelong’s scoring machine is purring, Cameron’s in career-best form, and they’re back at GMHBA Stadium where they’ve been near-unbeatable.

Meanwhile, Essendon can’t buy a goal, they’re getting smashed in the midfield, and their confidence must be shot after five straight defeats.

My main play remains Geelong -67.5 at $1.90. Yes, it’s a massive line, but when you’ve got a team averaging 125 points in their last five against a team averaging 54, sometimes you just have to back what the numbers are screaming at you. The Cats should win this by 80+, making that line look generous come Friday night.

LOCK IT IN: Geelong -67.5 @ $1.90

Main play as per analysis above

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