Port Adelaide vs West Coast Prediction

Port Adelaide Set to Punish Struggling Eagles at Adelaide Oval

Home • $1.09

Away • $6.75

Sunday • Adelaide Oval • Fine

Here’s a head-scratcher for you: how does a team that just copped a 59-point hiding suddenly become 6.75 outsiders the very next week?

That’s the market’s view on West Coast heading to Adelaide Oval, and after diving into these numbers, I reckon the bookies might actually be going easy on them.

Port Adelaide limped home against Brisbane last week, losing key players to injury and dropping a winnable game by 28 points. But here’s the thing – they still put up 92 points despite missing chunks of the match with their best tall timber.

Meanwhile, West Coast managed just 52 points against GWS and have now lost five straight, averaging a measly 57.6 points per game during that horror run. With the Power desperate to bounce back at home and the Eagles showing no signs of life on the road, this shapes as one of the more straightforward tips of the round.

KRUZEY’S TIPS

After crunching these numbers, three markets jumped off the screen at me. The head-to-head line is ridiculous – Port at $1.09 looks extremely attractive given West Coast’s current form.

But the real value lies in attacking that massive 37.5-point spread and the total points market.

BEST BET

LINE BETTING

Port Adelaide -37.5

$1.88

BET NOW

VALUE BET

Under 167.5 Total Points

$1.88

BET NOW

SMART HEDGE

West Coast +37.5

$1.88

BET NOW

All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

Look, I’ve run the numbers every which way, and they all point to a Power procession. But here’s where it gets interesting – our model suggests a much tighter contest than what the bookies are serving up.

Our Data Says: Port Adelaide 113, West Coast 75

That gives Port Adelaide a 51.5% win chance, West Coast 48.5%

Bookmakers have Port Adelaide at $1.09 (91.7% implied) vs West Coast at $6.75 (14.8% implied)

The Market Edge: We’ve identified a significant edge here – our model shows Port Adelaide with only 51.5% win probability compared to the market’s implied 91.7%.

That’s a massive 40.2 percentage point gap suggesting the Eagles are severely undervalued in the head-to-head market.

Our Prediction

PTA 113 | WCE 75

Win Probability

PTA 51.5% | WCE 48.5%

Market Edge

40.2%

on West Coast

FORM LINE

Port’s recent form reads like a rollercoaster – three wins from their last five, but check out those margins. They pumped Carlton by 50 and handled Melbourne by 25, but then got rolled by Brisbane and scraped past the Giants by just 16.

The concerning bit? They’re averaging just over 82 points in their last five, well down on their season average of 93.3.

West Coast’s form line is just brutal reading. Five straight losses by an average of 36 points, with their biggest defeat a 59-point shellacking from GWS last week.

They haven’t cracked 60 points in their last four games and haven’t won since… well, I stopped looking after scrolling back two months.

The Eagles are averaging just 57.6 points during this stretch – that’s 21 points below their already modest season average.

Port Adelaide Power

WWLWL

Beat Carlton by 50
Beat Melbourne by 25
Lost to Brisbane by 28
Beat GWS Giants by 16
Averaging 82 points last five

West Coast Eagles

LLLLL

Lost to GWS by 59
Five straight losses avg 36
Haven’t cracked 60 in four games
Winless in two months
Averaging 57.6 points during streak

KEY STATS

The numbers paint a clear picture here. Port Adelaide’s averaging 11.2 goals per game this season compared to West Coast’s 9.3 – that’s nearly a two-goal differential before we even factor in recent form.

But here’s the kicker: Port’s inside-50 count (51.4 per game) absolutely dwarfs West Coast’s 47.6, and they’re winning the clearance battle by more than six per game.

What really caught my eye though is the disposal efficiency gap. Port’s running at 72.2% for the season while West Coast sits at 70.5%.

Might not sound like much, but when you’re already struggling to score and you’re turning it over more often, those wasted opportunities compound quickly.

Factor in that West Coast’s defence has been leaking points like a sieve lately, and you’ve got all the ingredients for a hiding.

GOALS PER GAME

Port
11.2

West
9.3

INSIDE 50s

Port
51.4

West
47.6

DISPOSAL EFFICIENCY %

Port
72.2

West
70.5

SELECTION WATCH

Team selections yet to be announced – we’ll update our analysis once the lineups drop.

THE FINAL WORD

Everything points to Port Adelaide bouncing back in a big way here. They’re at home, they’re angry after last week’s loss, and they’re facing a West Coast side that looks completely shot.

The Eagles have lost five straight, can’t score, can’t defend, and haven’t shown any fight on the road all season.

My best bet remains Port Adelaide to cover that massive 37.5-point spread at $1.88. Yes, it’s a big number, but West Coast are averaging losses of 36 points during their current streak, and that’s against teams nowhere near as desperate as Port will be on Sunday.

Combine that with the under 167.5 total points, and you’ve got a solid two-pronged attack on what should be a comfortable Power victory.

LOCK IT IN: Port Adelaide -37.5 @ $1.88

Port Adelaide to cover the -37.5 line

BET NOW