Hawthorn vs Port Adelaide Prediction

Hawks Set to Soar at UTAS Despite Power’s Fighting Spirit

Home • $1.18

Away • $4.85

Saturday • University of Tasmania Stadium • 8°C, light rain, 16km/h winds

Here’s a question that’s been bouncing around betting circles this week – can Port Adelaide finally break their Tassie hoodoo?

The Power haven’t won at University of Tasmania Stadium since 2014, and with Hawthorn coming off three wins from their last four games, the market’s already made up its mind.

But after diving into these numbers, I reckon there’s more to this story than the $4.85 odds for Port suggest.

Last time these two met in that bruising semi-final, Port scraped through by just three points after Zak Butters’ late bump sparked absolute mayhem. James Worpel’s 55-metre shot after the siren fell agonisingly short for the Hawks.

Fast forward to now – Hawthorn demolished North Melbourne 150-65 two games ago, though they’ve since fallen to Fremantle. Port copped a reality check from St Kilda, going down by 20 points despite Butters’ 30 touches.

The contrast in recent form is notable, but here’s where it gets interesting for punters.

KRUZEY’S TIPS

After crunching these numbers, I’m seeing value where others might see a foregone conclusion.

The Hawks are rightfully favoured, but that 28.5-point line feels ambitious given the wet conditions forecast and Port’s current 3-2 record over their last five games.

My model’s showing a tighter contest than the bookies reckon.

BEST BET

LINE BETTING

Port Adelaide +28.5

$1.90

BET NOW

VALUE BET

Hawthorn 1-39

$3.40

BET NOW

SMART HEDGE

Port Adelaide Head-to-Head

$4.85

BET NOW

All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

Sometimes the best value comes from going against the grain, and that’s exactly what my model’s suggesting here. While everyone’s jumping on the Hawks bandwagon, the data tells a more nuanced story about this matchup.

Our Data Says: Hawthorn 88, Port Adelaide 71 (based on season averages adjusted for recent form)

That gives Hawthorn a 62.4% win chance, Port Adelaide 37.6%

Bookmakers have Hawthorn at $1.18 (84.7% implied) vs Port Adelaide at $4.85 (20.6% implied)

The Market Edge: Port Adelaide offers significant value – our 37.6% vs market’s 20.6% implied chance

Our Prediction

HAW 88 | PTA 71

Win Probability

HAW 62.4% | PTA 37.6%

Market Edge

17%

on Port Adelaide

FORM LINE

Look, I know what you’re thinking – Hawthorn’s won three of their last four while Port sits at 3-2. But dig deeper into those Hawks wins and you’ll notice something.

Those victories came against bottom-six sides, with their only test against a decent outfit being that narrow win over Adelaide where they scraped home 47-44. Port’s losses?

They’ve come against Brisbane (the league leaders), Sydney (top four), and a red-hot St Kilda side.

Hawthorn Hawks

LWWWW