Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 4

Fremantle Dockers vs Western Bulldogs Predictions

Game 8 of Round 4 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs on April 6 at Optus Stadium on Sunday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Sunday, April 6, 2025

5:10 pm AEST @ Optus Stadium, Perth

Final Score Prediction

Dockers

98 : 74

Bulldogs

Win Percentages

Fremantle 48.1%

Western Bulldogs 51.9%

Fremantle

Bulldogs

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Fremantle Dockers set at $1.61, and $2.30 for the Western Bulldogs, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Dockers 58.82%
Bulldogs 41.18%

Opportunity Bet

The bookies are backing the Dockers as fairly solid favourites, giving them a 58.82% chance of winning. But our numbers tell a different story, we see this as a much tighter contest, with the Dogs actually holding the slight edge at 51.9%.

That’s where the value pops up. With the Bulldogs priced at $2.30, but our analysis rating them as more likely to win, there’s a decent edge to be had. Based on our data, the true odds for the Dogs should be around $1.93, which means the bookies are giving you more value than they should (though the Dockers at home are a formidable force against the Bulldogs).

The Western Bulldogs offer a value bet at $2.20. Our numbers suggest they’re actually favourites, so jumping on those odds could pay off nicely.

What to do?

The Doggies don’t exactly bode well over in Western Australia, always managing to score significantly lower than anticipated, which this week is significantly close to the OVER UNDER so steer clear unless you see something I have missed. The Dockers do hold a significant home ground advantage at Optus Stadium when up against the Western Bulldogs so we can expect a tough fight (even though the Bulldogs are missing several key players), best bet here is Fremantle taking the win by a relatively small margin of less than 39.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Fremantle 1-39 @ $2.20 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

Fremantle @ $1.60 with
Ladbrokes

Line Bet:

Port Adelaide – 8.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

OVER/UNDER Bet:

OVER 166.5 (NOT RECOMMENDED) @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Fremantle: 80.0, Western Bulldogs: 88.7 – (Western Bulldogs by 8.7 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Fremantle: 94.3, Western Bulldogs: 82.7 – (Western Bulldogs by 11.6 points)
Average Winning Margin: Fremantle: 38.0, Western Bulldogs: 12.0 – (Fremantle by 26.0 points)
Average Losing Margin: Fremantle: 40.5, Western Bulldogs: 6.0 – (Western Bulldogs by 34.5 points)
HT/FT Double %: Fremantle: 33.3%, Western Bulldogs: 33.3% – (Even)
Highest Score For: Fremantle: 106, Western Bulldogs: 113 – (Western Bulldogs by 7 points)
Highest Score Against: Fremantle: 147, Western Bulldogs: 97 – (Western Bulldogs more resilient by 50 points)
Biggest Win: Fremantle: 38, Western Bulldogs: 16 – (Fremantle by 22 points)
Biggest Loss: Fremantle: 78, Western Bulldogs: 6 – (Western Bulldogs more resilient by 72 points)
Highest Total Match Score: Fremantle: 216, Western Bulldogs: 210 – (Fremantle by 6 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Fremantle: 133, Western Bulldogs: 146 – (Fremantle by 13 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: Fremantle: 55.7%, Western Bulldogs: 60.0% – (Western Bulldogs by 4.3%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: Fremantle: 61.8%, Western Bulldogs: 53.0% – (Western Bulldogs by 8.8%)
Current Streak: Fremantle: W1, Western Bulldogs: W1 – (Even)
Current Form: Fremantle: LLW, Western Bulldogs: WLW – (Western Bulldogs edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Fremantle: 50.0%, Western Bulldogs: 50.0% – (Even)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): Fremantle: 50.0%, Western Bulldogs: 50.0% – (Even)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Fremantle: 0.0%, Western Bulldogs: 100.0% – (Western Bulldogs by 100%)
Last 5 Encounters:
- 15 Jun 2024 (R14): Western Bulldogs 149 def. Fremantle 82
- 27 Apr 2024 (R7): Fremantle 95 def. Western Bulldogs 71
- 1 Jul 2023 (R16): Western Bulldogs 102 def. Fremantle 73
- 21 Apr 2023 (R6): Western Bulldogs 118 def. Fremantle 69
- 3 Sep 2022 (Finals W1): Fremantle 73 def. Western Bulldogs 60