Game 1 for Round 4 of the 2026 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees Collingwood vs Carlton on April 3 at the MCG on Thursday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel & Channel 7.
Thursday, April 3, 2026
7:30 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne
Final Score Prediction
Magpies
97 : 62
Blues
Win Percentages
Collingwood74.2%
Carlton25.8%
Collingwood
Carlton
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Collingwood Magpies set at $1.48, and $2.65 for the Carlton Blues, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Magpies
64.15%
Blues
35.85%
Opportunity Bet
The bookies have Collingwood as favourites with a 64.15% chance, but our numbers rate them even higher at 74.2%. That gives us a clear edge, the Pies are actually undervalued at their current odds of $1.48.
Based on our model, the true odds for Collingwood should be closer to $1.35. So, if you’re looking for a bit of value on the favourite, this is one of those rare moments where there’s still meat on the bone.
What to do?
Collingwood are looking strong both on paper and in the market, but our numbers say they’re even more of a lock than the bookies think. At $1.48, there’s definite value backing the Magpies to get the win, Our prediction is pretty close to the 39-40 winning margin so best option here is Collingwood taking the line.
Ben's been analysing footy betting markets for over a decade - breaking down team form, player stats, and where the bookies have got it wrong. He leads KRUZEY's weekly AFL and NRL tips and writes our betting app reviews, testing everything from multi-builders to odds competitiveness.
A lifelong Essendon supporter (yes, he's used to disappointment), Ben combines statistical analysis with genuine footy obsession. He watches more game tape than is probably healthy.
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