Collingwood vs Carlton Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 4

Collingwood Magpies vs Carlton Blues Predictions

Game 1 for Round 4 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees Collingwood vs Carlton on April 3 at the MCG on Thursday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel & Channel 7. 🏉🔥

Thursday, April 3, 2025

7:30 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne

Final Score Prediction

Magpies

97 : 62

Blues

Win Percentages

Collingwood 74.2%

Carlton 25.8%

Collingwood

Carlton

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Collingwood Magpies set at $1.48, and $2.65 for the Carlton Blues, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Magpies 64.15%
Blues 35.85%

Opportunity Bet

The bookies have Collingwood as favourites with a 64.15% chance, but our numbers rate them even higher at 74.2%. That gives us a clear edge, the Pies are actually undervalued at their current odds of $1.48.

Based on our model, the true odds for Collingwood should be closer to $1.35. So, if you’re looking for a bit of value on the favourite, this is one of those rare moments where there’s still meat on the bone.

What to do?

Collingwood are looking strong both on paper and in the market, but our numbers say they’re even more of a lock than the bookies think. At $1.48, there’s definite value backing the Magpies to get the win, Our prediction is pretty close to the 39-40 winning margin so best option here is Collingwood taking the line.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Collingwood Line -12.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

Winning Margin Bet:

Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.15 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

Collingwood @ $1.48 with
Ladbrokes

OVER/UNDER Bet:

UNDER 168.5 @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

Collingwood vs Carlton SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Collingwood: 88.0, Carlton: 68.0 – (Collingwood by 20.0 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Collingwood: 73.0, Carlton: 81.7 – (Collingwood by 8.7 points)
Average Winning Margin: Collingwood: 48.5, Carlton: N/A – (Collingwood by 48.5 points)
Average Losing Margin: Collingwood: 52.0, Carlton: 13.7 – (Carlton by 38.3 points)
HT/FT Double %: Collingwood: 33.3%, Carlton: 0.0% – (Collingwood by 33.3%)
Highest Score For: Collingwood: 136, Carlton: 75 – (Collingwood by 61 points)
Highest Score Against: Collingwood: 104, Carlton: 83 – (Collingwood more resilient by 21 points)
Biggest Win: Collingwood: 91, Carlton: N/A – (Collingwood by 91 points)
Biggest Loss: Collingwood: 52, Carlton: 20 – (Carlton more resilient by 32 points)
Highest Total Match Score: Collingwood: 181, Carlton: 158 – (Collingwood by 23 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Collingwood: 146, Carlton: 140 – (Collingwood by 6 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: Collingwood: 50.0%, Carlton: 50.0% – (Even)
Goal Accuracy Against %: Collingwood: 53.4%, Carlton: 67.3% – (Collingwood more accurate by 13.9%)
Current Streak: Collingwood: W2, Carlton: L3 – (Collingwood momentum)
Current Form: Collingwood: LWW, Carlton: LLL – (Collingwood dominance)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Collingwood: 0.0%, Carlton: 100.0% – (Collingwood by 100%)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): Collingwood: 100.0%, Carlton: 0.0% – (Collingwood by 100%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Collingwood: 50.0%, Carlton: 0.0% – (Collingwood by 50%)
Last 5 Encounters:
- 3 Aug 2024 (R21): Collingwood 84 def. Carlton 81
- 3 May 2024 (R8): Collingwood 85 def. Carlton 79
- 28 Jul 2023 (R20): Carlton 93 def. Collingwood 76
- 21 May 2023 (R10): Collingwood 85 def. Carlton 57
- 21 Aug 2022 (R23): Collingwood 75 def. Carlton 74